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Should i have called the river? 1. Super wet flop. Properly soaking. IMO, you've gotta raise really big on that flop to not give draws the pot odds to call/ make them make a bad call = more value for you when they don't hit. 2. By the river, every draw had got there so I'm definitely folding. He can't be betting a hand which doesn't have you beat, and may have even had you beat on the flop (KT). Those small donk bets though are interesting, often I've been finding, made by bad players with a draw. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
Folding KK preflop live Love the idea about flatting with AA. I wouldn't be too ready to fold it post-flop, though, because 4 hours is (IMO) probably not long enough to get a good enough read on his play to tell when he has AK/KQ or KK. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
(LIVE) Extremely short stacked in the BB on the bubble Read those hands as good news. You got your money in when you were best and you know your opposition are trite. Post here when you ship it. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
CL AKs early MTT This. But also, in these threads when people say "not enough info." it's not as if we're asking for anything extraordinary; all we ask for is the info. OP had when he made his decision (blinds, stacks etc.) so that we can make an informed response. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
Big bluff (semi) gone wrong!!! Not the 1st time! Any/all feedback/criticism/advice?? 1. We're just completing the SB. Surely we've gotta do this rather than just raising every time' 2. I think our decision on the flop is quite interesting. For discussion: What about a donk lead' We win the pot if he folds, and 'cause we're semi-bluffing, we build the flop for when we've hit. Unfortunately it is a bit awkward if we are c-r'd. Otherwise, I'd c/c the flop and c/f turn provided that: 1. He rarely double barrels. 2. The bet on the turn doesn't give us the pot odds to call. I think we have to remember that although we have a strong draw on the flop (11 outs if we include the J ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
(LIVE) Extremely short stacked in the BB on the bubble Sorry for being ignorant, does 'stop n go' mean call pre-flop and shove flop' If so, I can't see this ever working. OP is a little unclear about whether he's got 20k after posting BB or before, but either way, villain will be getting 2 or 3-1 on a call. We gotta think he'll be calling as often as he calls our shove pre-flop, surely... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 24th, 2013
(LIVE) Extremely short stacked in the BB on the bubble I'm beginning to fear XS has been trolling us. i don't know if he's serious. He's been banned from 2p2 I believe. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 23rd, 2013
SCOOP-31 $215, TT facing 3bet on 19bb I like the bet and then shove/call a shove. When you bet, you're never folding and planning to either get it in or win the pot pre-flop. You're short stacked and need a double up, but still have enough of a stack for it to look like you can raise fold. Your play allows villains to 3-bet you with a wider range and then the villain will have decent pot odds, about 2-1, and hopefully will call your shove with a wider range. I like it. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 23rd, 2013
shortstacked utg mid pair shove? Profitable or not? Over a huge sample, we would be running into 88+ (with 77) or more than one player with 88+ from UTG, about 24% of the time (1-(probability no one has a higher pocket pair)). (Your maths is wrong btw.) Running bad or running good is just the standard deviation over relatively small sample sizes. The larger the sample size, the closer it will be to 24%. It's a bummer when you feel as if you're in a rut, but in comparison to the huge number of hands that you have played, even months in variance is only a small sample size comparatively. Especially if you're playing live and playing fewer hands. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 23rd, 2013
My first BR Challange Less of a bankroll challenge, more of a boast blog' Posted in: Poker Community	bazingaking May 23rd, 2013
shortstacked utg mid pair shove? Profitable or not? My bad. It's more like 23.5%. Made a silly mistake first time. And that's only the probability that one person gets dealt a higher pocket pair. It ignores when more than one player is dealt a higher pocket pair and whether the villain will play if he gets dealt the higher pocket pair. Some people will fold 99-TT etc. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 22nd, 2013
Folding KK preflop live 1st: You disregard AK too quickly. There are 6 combinations of AA and QQ available: AhAd AhAs AhAc AdAs AdAc AcAs and the same for QQ. 1 combination of KK left. Because you have 2 Kings, there are 2 Kings and 4 Aces left so 8 combinations: Because we don't know the suits of the 2 kings remaining, call them Kx and Ky = AhKx AhKy AdKx AdKy AsKx AsKy AcKx AcKy. As you can see, there are actually more AK combinations left than AA/QQ. Hence, don't disregard AK when you have 2 Kings. If you put him on a range of AA - QQ and AK: 6/21 = AA = 28.6% 6/21 = QQ = 28.6% 1/21 = KK = 4.8% 8/21 = AK = ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 22nd, 2013
shortstacked utg mid pair shove? Profitable or not? 13.7% chance someone has a higher pair. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 21st, 2013
2 troublesome hands with med pocket pairs - mid stage tourney I see you're probably trying to make a rule out of this hand advice, but that will just make you predictable. If you play all the time as I recommended for this hand (ie. c/c when you hit, c/r when you miss), you'll just end up being out-played because you'll be predictable. You'll have to mix it up depending upon how much your villains' know about you, and their tendencies (some players are very LAG and will not fold to the c/r etc.) and also your image (if you've been bluffing recently, your bets will get less respect). To answer the Qs: 1. As said, impossible to say exactly how profitable ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 19th, 2013
2 troublesome hands with med pocket pairs - mid stage tourney A couple of reasons why I prefer the c/r rather than 4-bet: ---- 4-bet means you will risk (perhaps more because of the caller) c. 11k to win 14.5k = Villain needs to fold roughly 43% for this move to break even. Even with villain's aggro image and a caller behind (so a 4-bet looks like possible squeeze), the villain should be folding more than 43% of the time and the 4-bet would be profitable. When our 4-bet is called, most of the time we will have to give up on the flop (unless we hit a set = 11.8%); We may also have to follow through with the bluff, which is very risky because we'd have ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 18th, 2013
2 troublesome hands with med pocket pairs - mid stage tourney Hand 1: I think the history is really important here: it would be good to know what your image is, so that we know the chances of us getting him to fold. Pre-flop + Plan for the Flop: I prefer the call here, you're getting decent pot odds (>4:1) but you're implied odds are very good so it's perfectly fine to set mine (hitting set/ four of a kind on the flop = about 8:1 / 7:1) or get a reasonably dry flop like the one we have and bluff. 2 options: Option 1: 4-bet: You'd have to 4-bet pretty large to get both players to fold, which would risk roughly as much of your stack as option 2. ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 17th, 2013
Need some help Seems fine to me. Playing for the win. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 16th, 2013
Want opinions on these 2 hands Hand 1: It's a decent re-steal spot, however the villain is a little on short stacked side and so may be calling your 3-bet with a wider range. But I wouldn't make the re-steal unless I had some form of history on the player - I'd want to know that he was opening quite frequently and it would be even better if he was passive. Good idea, but needed player history IMO. Hand 2: Again player history please - how loose etc. With no info. it's harder to say. The line I'd take: But, pre-flop: Defending your BB with a weak ace is never good, and calling OOP makes that worse. Only do this if ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 15th, 2013
Leaving the just out of "I don't want to just cash" Nice question OP. I see from the example what you mean, but I'm not sure if I agree completely. With that example, you are so short stacked that you could just give up on the tourney and limp into the min cash and reg. for a new one. I guess when it becomes more interesting is what you do with a stack twice the size. I think it's right to keep on shoving and being pretty aggressive, punish the mid. stacks who will be looking to at least min cash and not flip right now. I think playing for the win is best (esp. for confidence, feeling good about your game and long term skill because you'll get ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 2nd, 2013
Profiling A Player To your first point: Make the note after the hand has finished' You don't have to make notes while playing in the hand - ask others here but I'd suppose the majority wait until the hand has finished before making notes on a previous hand. My main objection to your argument is this: You seem to be afraid of gaining and keeping information through fear of being exploited or that you use the information wrongly. So, it seems, the problem is not the gathering of the information, it's the using of the information. Learn to use the information (how much to rely on it, the help it will give you in ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking May 2nd, 2013
Good Fold? (KK Preflop) Expanding, probably needlessly, on Dan. Chance to be dealt any pair: 1 - [(48/52 x 47/51) + (4/52 x 48/51) + (48/52 x 4/51)] or (4/52 x 3/51) = 1/221 = 0.45% (2dp) We know 2 cards = KK, probability villain holds AA = 4/50 x 3/49 = 6/1225 So, probability (at least) one of your 8 opponents has AA = [1- (1-6/1225)^8] x100 (it's a little more complicated than this, but for simplicities and a very minor degree of error) = 3.85% (2dp) (if there were 9 opponents, 1/24 - the stat you refer to - would be an estimation of this. Presuming the 6 players did not fold aces pre, chance (at least) one ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Apr 29th, 2013
88 in the SB.. We don't have the pot odds or the implied odds; we're in an uncomfortable position, with the BB still to act and will be OOP; our stack is not that deep. Fold. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Apr 28th, 2013
Live Poker Tells, what do you do? I remember reading the same thing. I think the overwhelming consensus is that a beating vein is a sign of excitement due to a strong hand rather than bluffing. When bluffing, players seem to be more worried about looking normal and as they think a strong player should look. Looking/acting strong = weak Looking/acting weak = strong But it is all player dependant unfortunately :/ There is Caro's book of tells - have you read that' I lol'd Posted in: Live Poker	bazingaking Dec 24th, 2012
What is the best play in this spot? With a 20bb stack, (with antes) a squeeze play is ideal because of the chance to win the dead money. I'd be hoping not to see a flop against most players and just pick up the blinds and antes (30% stack increase). I'd be raising pretty wide here, to 15k and be willing to go all in against the initial (v. loose) raiser with all my raising hands (due to the pot odds and his wide range). If the flatter raises, fold ('cause history says he's so tight), even though you will be getting 2:1 pot odds (roughly.) Against most players, I'd be willing to go all in with those pot odds. If someone else ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 24th, 2012
Did I play this ok? Or should I have checked the river? Sorry I wasn't being results orientated, I was just lazy reading the post - my bad. I didn't see the respective stack sizes. Now I can see that villain will very rarely fold to a 1k bet into a 3k pot and it's a good value spot. Looking at it again, I very much like the small bet to get a bit more value out of the weaker T-high hands he would have called from the blinds with, any maybe even getting A-high hands to call. Initially I thought it puts us in an awkward spot if he shoves - because we would probably be committed to call even though we are probably beat, but now I think that that ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 21st, 2012
SNG hands. Did I play them wrong? 1: Fine. 2: Shove pre-flop. 3: meh. I'd probably feel a bit annoyed but just fold. I don't like calling a 3xbb raise (1/10 of our stack) with a hand which is not a good drawing hand or particularly strong. I also don't like shoving/ raising because the respective stack sizes are too awkward. Folding here is the most sensible option I think. 4: You are so short-stacked it's not so clear cut - but I would fold pre-flop. And if you do raise, shove - don't raise 1/3 of your stack pre-flop. That's just silly. 5: (Borderline) shove on the flop. You roughly have the pot odds, with your draw and ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 19th, 2012
Gun control laws.......... I disagree. School Teachers (and TAs) can not be completely trusted. This is because school teachers are humans too - they can also have breakdowns. Having more guns around children will, I think, only lead to further tragedies. BBC news recently revealed how a compulsive liar forged documents and had been teaching children biology for three months before she was found out. Furthermore, if a teacher had a confrontation with an aggressive pupil, (as happens regularly at some schools) there's more danger with the addition of a gun into the mix. Handing out more guns cannot be the answer to ... Posted in: Poker Community	bazingaking Dec 19th, 2012
Did I play this ok? Or should I have checked the river? I'd double barrel and check behind on the river, whatever the card (exclu. 10 or K). On the flop and turn you are betting to charge flush draws to draw and hoping small pocket pairs call your raises (or TJ etc.). However, on the river, if a flush card hits, don't bet or you'll be letting the flush drawers take your money. If a flush card doesn't hit, don't bet or worse hands will fold (the missed flush draws) and (nearly) only better hands will call a third barrel (JJ., 2,. 5 or AT etc.). Don't make a bet if the outcome is that worse hands fold and better hands call. I think it is rare ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 19th, 2012
help with AQ OOP PLZ I know it's awkward but I think we need to raise pre-flop. Since we're 5 handed, our AQ is probably best and I think we should pop it to about 1k to get value out of our hand. Calling OOP pre-flop and hoping to hit a flop is not the way AQ should be played - its value is pre-flop and it is not a drawing hand. If the passive opener shoves over our raise, I think we fold. If one of the aggro callers shoves, we call. If we get a caller or callers, since we're first to act on the flop, we should shove regardless of the flop cards. Interested to hear other opinions. Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 18th, 2012
5 minutes ago in $8.80 500cap on stars 1. 3x pre. The blinds are so small you want to build a bit of a pot for when you hit and prevent a long chain of limpers. 2. On the flop: check-raise. A 10 doesn't count as an out all the time (because it completes a straight), we have about 12 outs with 2 cards to come. 45% chance to hit and win - QQ etc. or higher flushes unlikely but say change to 40% to factor those in. Check to the pre-flop raiser who should bet, then raise to apply pressure and because we have a good draw. If we are re-raised, I would shove all in - there's a chance he is bluffing, going mad with a worse hand, will ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	bazingaking Dec 11th, 2012

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