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Re:Coin Flips and Stack Sizes right, but the whole point of this question is what are those ICM implications that make you fold' In other words, what stack sizes (and what other factors) determine the boundary between folding and calling, according to ICM, in this idealized situation' Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 May 10th, 2010
Re:Coin Flips and Stack Sizes This is just an idealized situation to present a theoretical question. I wrote basically in parenthesis since I realize this. Folding only makes sense when both players have large stacks, so in this case it is (basically, or approximately) chip neutral. Since this is an idealized hypothetical, I could easily restate the problem so that it is exactly chip neutral, but that's unnecessary since the point of the question should be clear, namely: how does the variance associated with a play affect your decisions in chip neutral spots like this' EDIT: you can think about the problem like ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 May 10th, 2010
Coin Flips and Stack Sizes Consider the following hypothetical situation: I raise preflop UTG w XX, and it is folded around to the BB who shoves with YY. For the sake of argument, lets say that I know for sure that we are in a 50/50 situation. Now I am (basically) in a chip neutral EV position, but the variance associated with making this call depends on the stack sizes. So heres my question: What stack sizes (in terms of M) for myself and the BB would make a fold the preferred play, or do you never fold in this spot' In other words, how does the variance associated with a play affect your decisions in chip neutral ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 May 10th, 2010
Re:FTOPS 1k - this is an easy fold right? why cant this be a bluff' He checked twice in a blind vs blind pot and now makes a 5x raise...all of those signs point to a bluff in my mind... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Apr 27th, 2010
Re:cash game vs MTT'S better to grind cash, especially if u have a gf/wife. You can start/stop whenever u want, there is more skill in cash game when players are very deep stacked, and generally cash game is way less variance than MTT's, esp 1000+ big fields. I love massive field MTT's, but im pretty certain grinding cash is the way to go...the only problem is that the cash games have lots of good players at higher stakes, and if you dont have good BR management and discipline you can go broke fast. I love MTT's, mostly because of the intensity of the competition, its a rush, but it can be really ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Mar 18th, 2010
Re:herbstreet's weekly inspirational thoughts nice post! keep em coming Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Mar 6th, 2010
Re:Has anyone figured out how you calculate a total play time? Although that's generally true in the first 2 or 3 hours, once the fields get smaller I think it takes more time to lose players than that. Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Mar 4th, 2010
Re:Is there a strategic reason behind odd digit bet sizes? its a way of sending signals to your opponents, by using important numbers from everyday life. So betting 411 is an information bet for example. Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Feb 27th, 2010
Re:MTT'S 10 dollar guarantees vrs the 24 guarantees on fulltilt There is a MAAAASSSSIIIIVVVEEEE skill difference btwn the two buy in levels, and its ridic how big the difference is. In a typical $10 MTT, the first couple of hours are all about getting massive gifts from horrible players making stupid plays. A $24 generally has way better play, with a lot less gifting of stacks, and if you play in the middle of the day, the 2/3pm ones, then the competition can be pretty tough (I think all the grinders love to play the 2pm $24) at like 8/10pm the $24's have a plenty of soft spots to be sure, but they are not really at the level of any $10. The one ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Feb 25th, 2010
Re:Islidur jumped off a bridge OBV Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Jan 19th, 2010
Million Dollar Cash Game: Does David Tuckman think Gary Jones is dumb? lolol @ david tuckman, who imo is the best commentator in poker, because if anyone has watched the first three seasons and now the fourth season of million dollar cash game, then there are all of these great moments when david makes an insulting comment to gary jones in a quasi-nasty way. I think it's pretty funny. The most classic example is when he says "thats the kind of insight we get from gary jones" after he made some dumb comment like benyamine is going to play AA pf. Anyway I know this is a dumb post, but I just thought it is pretty funny how hes always saying things ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Jan 13th, 2010
Re:Look at Phil Ivey.... he's even got the ivey eye thing where he looks back and forth real fast! Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 29th, 2009
Re:gay spot early in $1k Monday agreed, but it might also be a level with a set. Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 29th, 2009
Re:reverse ownage Full Tilt Poker Game #16782815335: MiniFTOPS Event #10 (109936891), Table 1781 - 600/1200 Ante 150 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:23:12 ET - 2009/12/13 Seat 1: STEFFEN244 (30,286) Seat 2: 14hisnob (24,489) Seat 3: UPsDaiSy (61,200) Seat 4: RIZZY_STYLE (8,358) Seat 5: macomike (61,058) Seat 6: WV 38 (27,695) Seat 7: calhoun137 (50,125) Seat 8: lIl-ricco-lIl (43,174) Seat 9: OMG_WTF_I_WIN (49,938) STEFFEN244 antes 150 14hisnob antes 150 UPsDaiSy antes 150 RIZZY_STYLE antes 150 macomike antes 150 WV 38 antes 150 calhoun137 antes 150 lIl-ricco-lIl antes 150 OMG_WTF_I_WIN antes 150 macomike posts the ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 27th, 2009
Re:How do you play AK here in miniftops ME? I think his c/r shove is pretty clearly a better hand. At most you have 6 outs twice, which is ~25% to hit on the turn or the river. You have to call ~12k, so the pot has to be 36k before you break even by calling. In this case the pot is significantly less than that at ~27k. So if you assume that you are behind 100% of the time, and at most you have 6 outs twice, then mathematically you are not priced in. I'm not sure how else to play this hand, except perhaps to 3-bet a smaller amt. In the super deep stacked stages, you should be 3-betting larger to protect your hands, but with a M~13 ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 20th, 2009
MiniFTOPS 10: Is anyone folding to this massive over bet? I open AQ pf 3xBB for 3600 from UTG, got a flat call from ricco right behind me who I actually thought was a bit frustrated by me, he had played back at me a few of times very recently, once folding to a three bet bluff by me on the flop blind vs blind, once coming over the top of my standard cutoff opening, once just flatting me and folding to a c-bet. Even though I sensed frustration from ricco bc he had been playing so many pots w me, I believe I had a pretty solid image, even in this players mind, having shown down only premium hands. I made a 3600 c-bet into about 8400 a 10,350 pot on ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 13th, 2009
Re:Watch Barry G acting like he's weak with explaination on tips from the bear just search: wpt s06e05 and choose 4/8 Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 12th, 2009
Watch Barry G acting like he's weak with explaination on tips from the bear Listen to this audio before u watch the video, because there is a fairly long explanation of like 8 seconds of video. I just found this last night, and then I watched the video and it was so cool to watch Barry acting like he's weak after this really long explanation. ~ 22:30 ~ 3:15 Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 12th, 2009
Re:Turning the corner in PLO.... Two things: 1) don't overplay bottom set, it's a pretty weak hand 2) you have a pretty big edge when u short stack PLO, why not buy in short to reduce your losses' Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 12th, 2009
Re:what made you choose your screen names? I bet no one had any clue 137 was such an important number! I thought maybe it would be lucky... seriously though I wish I had gone with IdLuv2RailUrGF Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 11th, 2009
Re:Full Tilt Petition SuperStacks CCCCOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGNNNNNN Except don't kill the $11 superstack pllssss, just add some higher buy in's. Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 11th, 2009
Re:Why bad beats do not exist. wow phil laak is so cool, but um about the bad beat thing, he didnt explain it very well, he just said like 20% is not a beat beat. Can u explain his explanation, since obv there are bad beats lol Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 2nd, 2009
Re:plz give me ur opinion on this I LOLOLOLOL'D Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 2nd, 2009
Re:Basic Question about assigning "ranges" of hands to people;; nice question. I think the idea is basically to make sure your actions are optimal against the range of hands you give your opponent. The idea of playing against a range is as opposed to just picking one hand and playing like that's what your opponent is on. It's not like oh I think hes playing X% so i'll play Y%, because the dynamics of the hand and how you should play it will be different depending on your hole cards and the board. Mathematically, all you do is compute the average EV of every possible hand in his range to see if it's a good play or not. Check out pokerstove ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 2nd, 2009
Re:FTP cashout tourney strategy I lol'd Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 1st, 2009
Re:best line with QQ? I am re-raising in this spot most of the time, trying to induce mistakes from my opponent when he reships with either a jack or a bluff by making my re-raise look like a bluff that I can get away from. The problem with QQ here is that not only does a lone jack have ~20% to beat you by the river, but any A or K on the turn will be scary. By giving your opponent a chance to fold, you take that 20% to 0% at the cost of winning less chips in the hand. I am looking to protect my hand and my stack most of the time in this spot by re-raising to induce a mistake, but if I have a solid read that my ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 1st, 2009
Re:Is it Cheating to... I think the better question is: would it be cheating to put a bounty on yourself. Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 1st, 2009
Re:Iv'e been blowing up At the time of this hand I was about 5/30 in chips... Full Tilt Poker Game #14021920380: $17,000 Guarantee (103174892), Table 48 - 2000/4000 Ante 500 - No Limit Hold'em - 5:29:23 ET - 2009/08/14 Seat 1: calhoun137 (172,910) Seat 2: ud0wn (140,652) Seat 3: matchpoint-comm (40,861) Seat 4: mateo55 (237,962) Seat 5: cppccppc (78,957) Seat 7: Firefig (59,728) Seat 9: kiwigg (277,349) calhoun137 antes 500 ud0wn antes 500 matchpoint-comm antes 500 mateo55 antes 500 cppccppc antes 500 Firefig antes 500 kiwigg antes 500 matchpoint-comm posts the small blind of 2,000 mateo55 posts the big blind ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 1st, 2009
Re:whos stacking off with AK here? I think part of the problem with your check raise all in is that the only real benefit is driving drawing hands out of the pot, and the downside is that you will only be called by a better hand, including both AQ and AJ which you normally would get a lot of value out of. A lot of it comes down to your read on the opponent. I would personally lead out at the flop, since I would feel that I have the best hand and don't want to give a free card. If I am raised, then I would have to go with my read based on bet sizing and history. The real problem with AK on this flop is that you are losing ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Dec 1st, 2009
Bad fold w/ AQ? Goldsteak had been an absolute maniac, playing every pot and calling pf any raise. Cash4Life had been a tiny bit spewy but also seemed to be playing fairly solid for the most part. Squeeze play bluff seems like a real possibility here from cash4life, but AQ is so borderline. I really felt like he had QQ+ in the first hand, and AK in the second hand, but I realize in hindsight that in the second hand he also can easily have AJ or a pocket pair smaller than QQ. I hate AQ, but I probably should have gotten it in at least on the second hand and hoped for a race right' Full Tilt Poker Game ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	calhoun137 Nov 25th, 2009

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