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Re(2): Question for Shawn Rice
I guess I'm a donk. I'm having trouble seeing why so many people think taking 3:2 Pot Odds when you're 2:3 versus the range you have your opponent on is considered a bad play. This is what gambling is all about people. You make the bets that give you the right price. 3:2 is the right price when you're 40% to win the hand. Shawn already said he discounted KK or TT since he had one of each. He further discounted AA because Mkind Pushed, reasoning that if he had AA he would want to string the action out rather than risk ending the hand there. That leaves a range of QQ, JJ, 55-99, ATo+, ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 16th, 2006
Re(2): Big drawing hand, how would you play this?
I think the point we're all trying to make here is that you need a better basic understanding of the Odds. Taking an example from above: Villain has 7 6. Suited or offsuit makes no difference. With a Pair + the OESF Draw, you are a 55% favorite on the Flop even though Villain has Top Two. Whether you ultimately win or lose this hand, you cannot pass up opportunities like this. You're the favorite and you're getting 1.77:1 Pot Odds. Poker doesn't get any better than that.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 8th, 2006
Re(1): How did I mess this hand up? (vs. Below at Foxwoods 2k FT)
I'm frankly amazed at the question. The surest way to control the Pot size is to bet enough to take it down on the Flop. Take away his drawing odds, and if he doesn't lay the 6d 7d down, at least you know he was the one who made the mistake. Instead, by trying to control the Pot size with a Check, you let him beat you for free, and then donated 205k after it was too late. Too cheap early = too expensive late.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 8th, 2006
Re(2): Big drawing hand, how would you play this?
If Villain has 8 5 and the Board is 4, 6, 7 his equity is 0.59 and yours is 0.41 0.41 * 87.25 = 33.70. So, a Push at that point ( on the Flop ) looks good on the surface. But, with Villain's already made Straight, after the Turn misses you, you drop to an equity of 22.3%. The Push on the Flop looks mighty iffy then.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 7th, 2006
Re(3): Big drawing hand, how would you play this?
Correct. If he has 99, equity is 0.318. 42% is for the whole range of PP from 99 to AA.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 7th, 2006
Re(1): Big drawing hand, how would you play this?
I'd be interested to know what hand you put him on. There's $55.75 in the Pot and it'd cost you $31.50 to Call, so you're getting 1.77:1 Pot Odds. Your equity is 63% vs a Random hand. It's still 42% vs 99 or better. You're only in real trouble if he specifically has either 8 5 or 10 8. So, if he has a random hand your average return would be 63% of 87.25 or $54.97. If he has 99 or an overpair to the Board your return would be 42% of 87.25 or $35.65. It's only costing you $31.50 to Call, so in both cases you show a long term profit by Calling.. The only way a Call becomes the wrong thing ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Nov 7th, 2006
Re(2): Jennifear's article
There is no cure for that. Trust me. I've been there more times than I can count. Come over the top' How' I've only got 400 chips left. ;-)
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(2): A small fable...
The bets you save are vital... anytime, anywhere. The thing about tournaments is that you aren't really betting chips - you're betting percentages. Anytime you're in a position where 100% of your chips represents less than 100% of your opponent's chips, you're in a world of hurt. In my particular scenario here, because I had failed to play both the 10, 7 and A, K hands, my opponent had over 4x my stack. He would have been justified trying to Push me out of the Pot with almost any hand. And, the longer I let him do that, the greater the percentage disparity becomes and the wider the range of ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(5): Cash games vs Tournaments
So is 33 v 66 on a 6,3,3 Flop.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(5): John Juanda
Sheeeeeeeeeesh! Didn't you get the memo' Whenever you lose, it's ALWAYS a bad beat.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(3): Cash games vs Tournaments
A "cooler" is when you manage to catch AA, get some donkey to Call you down, and then watch in amazement as his Rivers a Flush. Been there. Done that. Believe me, you don't want that T-shirt.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(2): A small fable...
Ordinarily, I'd agree with you. Especially about the Aces. But, when you get right down to brass tacks, Tournaments aren't really about making good decisions - they're about making good reads and gambling at the right time. Live, with much slower Blind structures, you've got time on your side. Online, you don't. An hour from now the Blinds are going to be something like 10x as high as they are now. If your stack isn't at least 10x as big as it is now, you're losing ground. That forces you to compromise your ordinary standards in a number of ways, and gamble a whole lot more than is ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
A small fable...
When we first enter the poker arena, we are given many good pieces of advice: Don't sweat the luck, it all evens out in the end. Make good decisions, let the results take care of themselves. As a practical matter, those are good axioms to follow, especially if you play cash games. When it comes to tournaments, things seem to skew a bit. Here's my tale of woe... feel free to ridicule. First hand of an MTT. UTG with . Decide not to play. When the Board rolls 10, 10, 7, 10, x. It occurs to my tiny little brain that I may have just passed up an opportunity to do myself some good. Next hand ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 30th, 2006
Re(5): John Gale is baddddddddd
OK, then, let's look at it from a strictly poker perspective. As was pointed out on the telecast, the Pot was laying him 7:2 for that Call. Proper odds' Not really, but, as NSXT points out, the 90k isn't make or break either way for Gale. If you subscribe to the relative chip value theory, Hachem's chips were worth a lot more to Hachem than Gale's were to Gale. On that basis, the Pot was laying Gale considerably more than 7:2. Hachem was obviously the player Gale most feared/respected at that table. If Gale loses and doubles Hachem up, their relative situations are unchanged. If he wins ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 25th, 2006
Re(1): amazing cooler first hand of stars 1M
Not the Stars 1M, but I'll see your AA v KQ and Raise you an AK v 32 off. Aint weekends fun'
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 22nd, 2006
Re(5): A game theory problem
That only applies if you conduct infinitely many trials. Not if you're just playing one hand... and this is a one hand scenario. If you were to run 5000 trials of 3 2 off vs any random hand, 32 would only win about 32% of the time. But, you're not running 5000 trials, you're just running one. Is this one of the 68% or one of the 32%' There is no way to know. If you run 5000 trials with AA, it'll win about 85% of those. But, is this single hand one of the 85% it wins or one of the 15% it doesn't. Again, there is no way to tell until you play the hand out. Relying on odds that are only valid ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 21st, 2006
Re(3): A game theory problem
No, it isn't. This is a one hand scenario. There are no reliable statistics for any one-time trial. In a one hand scenario, 3 2 offsuit is as likely to win as AA. AA only becomes a BIG favorite if you can conduct infinitely many trials.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(3): A game theory problem
There is no such thing as a "standard rake." How much vig you get gaffed is going to vary from game to game; casino to casino. It's fruitless to try to discuss any general policy if we need to take into account covering the vig.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(6): A game theory problem
You've already waited three hands, and lost 50 chips in Blinds. You only win his 20 chip BB. You're still down 30 chips.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(3): A game theory problem
That's the thing. There is no hand that is below average against a truly random hand. Statistically, two truly random hands have exactly the same chance to win. You may have two specific cards that have a better ( or worse ) than 50% chance to win against a random hand, but your random two will never be less than 50% to win against another random hand, HU. The deck is as likely to hit you as it is him. Unless you have reason to expect that he has a better than average hand ( Q 7 ) his two are every bit as dependent on the Board as your two. For all you know, he's Pushing with 3 2 offsuit, ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(4): A game theory problem
Your range is only 3:2 against a random hand. You're not getting enough of a premium to justify the wait. Especially since you now need to beat him more than once to get all of his chips.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(3): A game theory problem
I disagree. If you wait even one hand, any bet you make can now break you but won't break him. You no longer have an even proposition, so you need better than even odds to compensate for the added risk your bet represents.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(1): A game theory problem
The same as his pushing range. Any two. Every bet you make in this situation is going to be an even money bet. You will never be able to win more than the size of your stack on any single bet. Your any two has exactly the same chance to win as his any two, and you're getting exactly the right price for that bet. The longer you wait, the more restricted your calling range becomes, and the more times you have to beat him to win all of his chips.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 20th, 2006
Re(1): So confused...possible BIG change in my game...
Supe - To me, your question is slightly flawed. The "better players" you're talking about tend to play the same tourneys against the same opposition day after day, week after week, and month after month. They all know each other's tendencies. So, depending on their position, who's in the hand with them, and what the betting has been, they have a pretty accurate idea whether it's safe to slowplay either of your scenarios. In the general sense, with unknown players of uncertain skill level - bet. You currently have the best hand. Don't let the bastages beatcha for free.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 18th, 2006
Re(1): When nobody makes a good bet.
Hang on. That equity can't be right. 47% of the time somebody wins outright. That means 53% of the time there is a split pot of some kind and most of those will go to the Aces. So, despite what the card calculator says, my split percentage is actually 50% not 25%. 3750 * 0.5 = 1875. 7500 * 0.02 = 150. Equity = 1875 + 150 = 2025 not 1115. Calling is the technically correct play after all. [Dunce make bad arithmetic. Dunce correct bad arithmetic.]
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 10th, 2006
Re(2): When nobody makes a good bet.
How ya be, Jay' Yes, I agree. AA has to Call. I just thought the probabilities were unusual enough that people needed to be aware that sometimes there is no technically correct way to play a hand.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 10th, 2006
When nobody makes a good bet.
Situation: First hand of an online MTT. 1500 starting chips. Cards: AA Action: Limp, Limp, 425, Fold, Call, All-In, Call (me), Fold, Fold, Fold, Fold, Call, Call, Call. 5 of us to the Flop, so I'm getting 4:1 on Pocket Aces. Sounds good, right' Well, maybe. If I'm up against 4 random hands. And, these guys are all donks. And, they've all got each other counterfeited. Then and only then am I 55% to win and getting 4:1. In a more realistic scenario they aren't ALL donks ( just one or two of them ) and they don't have each other counterfeited, and my win probability is less than 55%, so 4:1 ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Oct 10th, 2006
Re(1): Wat do i do on the river
If you're worrying about the River, you're worrying about the wrong thing here. First off, why are you playing A/4 offsuit' That's just offering to give away money. Secondly, IF you're going to play such a lousy hand, why are you limping' That's just giving everybody else at the table the cheapest possible way to beat you' Thirdly, after giving everybody a free shot at you, once that 4 falls on the Turn, you need to realize that you're beat. Sure, you got very lucky and had the best hand for about 5 seconds, but you gave it away. When you do things like the way you played this whole hand, ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Jun 13th, 2006
Re(1): worst board ever for pocket kings
Q x Q Flop against two guys Calling with Q high tops my personal list.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Jun 13th, 2006
Re(1): IMPLIED ODDS QUESTION ABOUT THIS HAND
The only way you're getting the right odds to make this Call is IF you can outplay him after the Flop about half the time. Forget making your set. That's only going to happen 1 time in 8. Half the time, the Flop is going to come with no 8 and one or more scare cards for you. 2 times in 3 your hand will never improve. 1 time in 3 the Board will hurt you badly by helping him. You'll find yourself with 1/8 of your stack already in the Pot and no clear idea whether your hand is best or not most of the time. If a third 8 shows up, great. But, that's gravy. Even then, if he's starting with a ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Dunce
Jun 13th, 2006