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Re(1): SNG Bubble play
Hand#2 - Is probably worth a shove only if the blinds are playing a good sng strategy by tightening up their calling requirements . If the blinds don't make this adjustment , then you're better off folding .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Nov 9th, 2007
Re(1): Cash game variance-Math question.
This thread might be of interest to you .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Nov 9th, 2007
Re(3): sample size??
50k hands is sufficient for both limit and nl . However , this depends on several variables : Your win rate/100 hands should be higher in nl as well as your variance . So one may argue that you need more hands to determine if you're a profitable player in NL but this isn't true since your sample win rate will generally be higher too . I've done similar calculations in the past , and it's about roughly the same .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): sample size??
First you need to determine your standard deviation . With 30 sessions you can determine this. Lets convert everything to the same units . You're earning 8 bb's/100 hands over a sample of 2000 hands . So lets say your standard deviation is 30 bb's/100 hands . This means that your sample standard deviation over a sample of 2000 hands is 30/sqrt(20) ~ 6.708 . So we can conclude with 95% confidence , or 2 standard deviations from the mean , that your true win rate lies between 8+-2*6.708 or between -5.416 to 21.416 . What this means is that you still have no clue what your real win rate is ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): How many games is enough to know that it's not variance?
We may approximate your standard deviation which would apply to a wide range of win-rates . So for a typical 18-man tourney , your s.d may be ~ 2.2 with an roi of just over 10% (very reasonable ) So if xbar is your sample roi , and we're interested in the probability that you are within 2 standard deviations from the mean , then our confidence interval becomes xbar +- 2*2.2/sqrt(n) where n is the number of sng's played . So if our roi after 100 games is 25% , then we can conclude with 95% confidence that our true win-rate lies between -0.19 to 0.69 . After 500 games , with a sample roi of ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): good fundamental fold considering?
Against many opponent's I would even be willing to re-raise here . An opponent who mini-raises often times has a wider range than a player who makes 3x raises . Moreover , you have antes in play , which makes playing aggressively all the more favorable .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): need advice for HU poker
Your variance will be much higher playing against this individual who will have you covered even if you double up a couple times . This doesn't mean that it's not a profitable venture for you . As long as you're making profitable decisions , then it shouldn't matter how much money he has in front of him . In fact , if he's inferior to you , then you're in a gamblers' bliss . If you can ride the wave , then you'll be fine .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): need advice for HU poker
What do you mean , go broke ' I hope you're not trying to play NL200 with only $200 . If you are properly bank-rolled and you lose one buy-in , then nothing should stop you from re-buying . If you're only playing with 1 buy-in , then you have bankroll management issues .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 20th, 2007
Re(1): FTP $750K G Hand "Quiz" Question
I probably lean towards folding preflop . Even if you were deepstacked , I believe calling raises with suited connectors against 3 players is marginally playable oop . Since your stack is shallow , your s.c's has lost some of that value so it's not a bad idea you fold and wait for a better spot .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 19th, 2007
Re(1): Limit cash game blind play question...
Your raise pre-flop was good . On the turn , you had a good spot to try the check-raise . There is 2.5 in the turn , and you need the play to be successful at least 1/(2.5+1) ~ 28.5% which is reasonable here .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 19th, 2007
Re(1): Bottom set on bad board
I couldn't possibly fold here . If the flop were rainbowed , then you could make a case for folding bottom set . If we include some j-x s hands , two pair ; 87 or j-8 , and other hands that may have been over-played , it becomes very difficult to fold bottom set .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 19th, 2007
Re(1): Really tough SNG hand
lol , what is this play money '
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(3): Why do people like the UB Badbeat tables? (Plus math question)
Your math is almost right . The probability he hits runner runner given that you hold quads is 2/45*1/44=0.00101010101 You have to factor in that you hold jacks and that we're thinking about this from hero's perspective . Also the person who suffered the bad beat gets the largest % which depends on the casino/game you're playing . Everyone else gets a smaller % which again depends on the casino/game .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(3): Tough Spot with AJ
lol I do it in my head .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): Tough Spot with AJ
Without a doubt , you have to call here . Without taking into account ICM , you have to win around 40% of the time to show a profit . Now with ICM , you may have to win around 43% of the time to show a profit . Either way , you have a call here .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): Why do people like the UB Badbeat tables? (Plus math question)
It's hard to give a definitive answer since everyone has a different propensity to play suited connectors which can play a part in the bad beat jackpot . If we assume that no suited connectors will be played , then you can only lose to quad 9's or better . The probability one of 5 players will be dealt a pocket pair of 9's or better is ~ 1- [(1225-36)/1225]^5 ~13.85% . The probability another player with 9's or better hits quads and that oyu hit quads assuming you always get to see all 5 board cards is ~ 44/48c5 ~0.00002569 Now we multiply this by the probability that one is dealt 9's or ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): $10+1 SNG Bubble
I think this is a very interesting hand . I would have just called the flop bet , just in case he's on a draw , and then I would strongly consider shoving on the turn regardless of what hits . It's pretty much a variation of the stop and go play . Also , shoving on the flop is not a bad play either .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): did i make the right move here?
Wow , this was totally misplayed . I hope you don't mind me being critical of you . Preflop , you should have raised to about 4x the bb . On the flop you should have raised here most of the time . If your opponent is spewy , then calling the flop may be an option . Whether you would call/raise/fold the turn depends on many factors not present in this thread . However , most microstakes players telegraph their hands so when they bet larger than the pot size , it probably means top pair .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): 11 left in 11r whats your play
So you're getting about 3.37:1 pot odds to see the flop , which is not bad . Ideally you want to dump a hand like this to a button raiser , but you may be able to punish him for making such a small button raise with all those antes in play . If you estimate that you have about 1/4.37 ~ 22.88% favorable flops , then calling is a bit better than folding . How do we define a favorable flop' Any flop with a 9 or 10 high is in our favour and any straight/2 pair/trips or open ended straight draw is in our favour . If you account for all these possibilities , I believe calling pre is a bit better ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 2nd, 2007
Re(1): Isolation play with AK
I actually like the call with AcKc . He's getting (150*2+860+75):710 on the call and needs to win a little over 36.5% to show a profit . Lets say the shover has jj+ which is being generous since his range here may even be wider . So 12/18 times he has jj or qq 3/18 times he has kk 3/18 times he has aa 12/18*0.46 = 0.306666 3/18*0.34=0.0566666 3/18*0.12 = 0.02 Add everything and you get a little over 36% . Now factor in the probability that he includes some bluffs as well and now your call is looking good with ackc .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 1st, 2007
Re(1): should i fold here? am i priced into the draw?
You have pot odds of 1260:560 or 2.25:1 which means you need to win at least 1/3.25 or 30.76% You should win a bit more than that on average , since occasionally you may have additional outs if your opponent has middle pair . This is pennies either way and calling or folding won't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 1st, 2007
Re(1): Bankroll management advice welcome
Your bankroll management often depends on the size of the tournament . Many players think that sng's should all use the same generic number of buyins which is completely wrong . Your bankroll requirement would be different if you played in a 6 player sng to a 9 player sng . Some players even classify 27 player tourneys as sng's and so on . Also , the payout distribution plays a role in the s.d for that particular tourney , so a freezeout will have a different bankroll requirement than a non freezeout . Let me know the exact type of sng you're referring to by telling me the number of players ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Oct 1st, 2007
Re(2): Bankroll requirements for 180 man mtt's.
If you experience a 165 buyin downswing then you may need to reconsider if you're a winning player . Many people grossly over estimate their true win rate which is why so many players have poor bankroll management . Also , your willingness to move up or down if you experience some crazy swings will change your requirements , too .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(2): Bankroll requirements for 180 man mtt's.
Yes , that would be pretty bad luck , wouldn't it '
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Bankroll requirements for 180 man mtt's.
I don't think this gets talked about in this kind of detail but I'll try to explain things as simple as possible . I will come up with a reasonable bankroll requirement for various roi's and your personal risk tolerence for entering the tournament . In cash games , it's relatively straight forward to derive one's s.d as long as we have 30 cash game sessions . For mtt's , this is not simply done since there are many possible outcomes for your session . You may place in first place , 2nd place , 3rd place , or even ootm . We cannot use the normal distribution here since we have more than two ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(1): Avg. # of coin flips/60-40's to final table a huge MTT?
Well if a tournament has 2^n players , then you would need to double up no more than n times to win the event . So if the field has 1024 players , then you're looking at something less than 10 double ups .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(1): What is a good % cash for MTT's ??
You shouldn't be concerned about itm finished . Afterall , it's possible to have a lower itm finish than a player but a higher roi than him . It's certainly possible to attain a roi of 100% playing in these tournaments , and your itm finish may be close to 20% at the very best . I would guess that you can finish between 15-20% of the time if you're a pretty good player .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(3): The great folding KK pre flop debate - maths help pls?
Texduke , the exact probability that you run into aces if you're utg at a 10-handed table is : 9c1*6/52c2- 9c2*6/52c2*1/50c2 =~ 4.0591005% You may use approximation methods and arrive at a fairly convincing answer , but the best way to work out these types of problems , is to use the inclusion/exclusion formulas .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(2): The great folding KK pre flop debate - maths help pls?
I will include an exact computation for the probability that exactly AA and KK are out at a 10-handed table . I've also included , prior to this post , a decent approximation of about 1 in 1000 trials . The exact solution proceeds as follows : P(AA and KK) = 2*10c2*6/52c2*6/50c2 - 10c3*6/52c2*6/50c2*1/48c2*3c2*2 +10c4*6/52c2*6/50c2*1/48c2*1/46c2*4c2 = 0.0019805 or about 1.98 in 1000 trials . Hopefully this clears up the confusion . If you have more specific questions , feel free to ask .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007
Re(2): The great folding KK pre flop debate - maths help pls?
The p(AAorKK) = 7.9596% . I should have included this in the original post which is what I thought the poster wanted . I will provide a solution for the probability that AA and KK are out at a n-handed table . If you want to know the probability that AA and KK are out at the same time , it's relatively straightforward . At a n-handed table the probability is : ~nC2*6/52c2*6/50c2=nC2*0.0000221627 So if we plug n=10 , we get ~ 0.00099732 or about 1 in 1000 trials .
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		jay_shark
Sep 30th, 2007