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Ajs as big stack vs LAG
I would never fold this against anyone but the nittiest of nits. You are the big stack here and should be stealing a ton from the CO. I don't know what your exact range is in this spot for a minraise but I'm assuming it's very wide - as it should be. A reg with 16BBs will be sitting there looking for any reason to be 3bet shipping on you and will have a pretty wide range as well. I would be shocked if a LAG reg didn't have hands like AT, KJ, KTs, QJs, JTs, any pair in their range here. And you really are in the top of your range here. In a vacuum I would say you are ahead of his range (more ...
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Josek
Jan 16th, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
I think his flop raise is pretty polarizing. He is not doing it with a weak J to fold to a flop 3bet, or to suddenly decide to check behind the turn and fold river. He either has the goods (strong made hand like AJ+ or at least a FD) or is giving up. And if he thought he had the goods on that board on the flop, raised and got called, he certainly still thinks he's good and has no reason to slow down. It's a wet board and you clearly have something you can pay with having called a flop-raise. And given the overall situation, he is very likely to be trying to get you off a hand due to ICM ...
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Josek
Jan 11th, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
I just don't understand anything in this post. what are you talking about with check calling turn when we were discussing a scenario when he checks behind turn' and where did I say anything about betting only when we hit and c/f the rest' I said I'd call most of the rivers - only folding to 12 cards.
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Josek
Jan 10th, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
are you aware that we are out of position here' you get to act first. If he checks turn behind, I'm Betting river on all cards that improve my hand other than an 8 (which I'm check calling with), I'm check calling on all blanks and Aces (including cards that pair the board), and probably check folding only on offsuit K, Q, T and 9. That's it. If we hit our flush it's a very straight-forward river valuebet and I expect to be good 95% of the time there.
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Josek
Jan 4th, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
Man, after he checks turn and a diamond, 8, 7 or a 6 comes I'm really loving my life and I'm extatic about getting it in. Sure, you sometimes will lose but you are so far ahead that you just should not worry about it.
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Josek
Jan 4th, 2017
Massive UTG+1 raise VS AK
When I saw this I also immediately thought missclick. If it's a missclick you have a beautiful spot to double up, when it's not, is he really likely to have KK+' When I'm seeing someone do something like that it sometimes is one of these, but way more often is TT-QQ or AK. You even have blockers to AA and KK, so I'm definitely getting it in and would not be surprised if he called with something really weakish after missclicking pre.
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Josek
Jan 3rd, 2017
AQ post flop play
What do I mean' What hands do you stack off here with' You said that AQ you are crushed here. I'm thinking AK is exactly the same as AQ in this spot. So you cbet pretty much every hand in this spot, but are only stacking off with 2 pair or better' By exploitable I don't mean that someone will suddenly pick up on what you are doing and will start just relentlessly raise your cbets on dry boards. I mean that at these stakes you will see a lot of strange stuff going on, a lot of bad plays, overplaying made hands, and obviously being raised with draws and so on. You are cbetting one of the ...
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Josek
Jan 3rd, 2017
19 left Hot 22 AJ spot ?
I'm not sure I would be waiting for a better spot here. It is really close, but you have seen him raise/fold on this stack before, you have blockers to quite a few of his strong holdings and while you don't really want to see him call, you do have decent equity vs his range. I might fold had I seen the table to be really passive and nitty, as your stack can put a lot of pressure on everyone on the table, but with no additional info this is a ship for me - I'm not loving it but still going with it.
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Josek
Jan 3rd, 2017
Pre Flop Raise (RFI) Size
Honestly, I've never played such low stakes cash games and I rarely play any cash games at all, but my best guess would be, that all you have to do there to win is play pretty tight preflop and bet big when you have it - I think that even 5x opens pre are not getting too much respect so you can just build pots that way. But on the other hand this is not going to be a winning strategy when you move higher and does not get help you learn to play well. So just do what you think works best for you. Adjust the sizing to the table and the situation. I would generally be opening standard 3x from ...
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Josek
Jan 3rd, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
Still don't agree with this. You are defending open shipping vs just Betting small, but I'm not advocating any of these. I'm saying that a check/ship is way better than an open ship here. What he ends up folding is pretty much the same in both cases but you make more money allowing him to bet. He may call with a naked flush draw, but what is wrong with that' Most importantly, you now have that beat by a big margin. secondly, what flush draws is he likely to have here' you have 2 blockers to medium Ax FDs, big Ax FDs are 3betting pre, and most likely small Ax FDs (A2,A3) are 3betting pre as a ...
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Josek
Jan 3rd, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
btw. I'm not a big fan of this. I don't mind min raising Pre, but I really don't like doing it from the SB (and I hate it in this exact spot :) ). You are inviting the big stack to flat you giving him ridiculous odds on a call when he will be in position and will have beautiful ICM spot maximizing his folding equity in the hand - in other words you are just asking to get outplayed in this spot. Try changing your SB open size in general to something much closer to 3x and see if that works better for you. It does for me :)
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Josek
Jan 2nd, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
But what hands do you want him to fold to your open ship that are not folding to check/ship' If the pot is 1.57million, you ship and he folds air, you made 1.57 million. If you check, he bets 630k, you ship, he folds as he has air, you made 2.2 million. clearly a better outcome. And as you said, you yourself would be doing it with air - in that case you really prefer to let him bet before you jam.
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Josek
Jan 2nd, 2017
4 left - butchered postflop play with 87s blind on blind
Interesting spot. I think I would show my nitty side here and check/call flop, check/call turn (bet if he checked behind flop) and decide on the river. I'm very aggro late in the tournaments, but it would really suck here to let the 6BB guy get the payjump - I'm interested what more experienced players think about this one. This I don't stand behind. What does that achieve' Is that a bluff or a value bet' What better hands than a pair of 7s are folding (TT-88 are 99,99% not in his range and he is unlikely to fold a Jack) and what worse hands are calling (you are suggesting betting ~2.4M ...
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Josek
Jan 2nd, 2017
4 left facing a suspicious min raise with a short stack
I know it's from MTT but it's a spot that will happen in SnGs more often than in MTTs given how shallow it is 4-handed :)
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Josek
Dec 28th, 2016
Trip Q´s on wet board facing river shove
I agree that this is a call. I think you are beating some of his value range. It's a 100+ BB stack calling PF from the BB with 2 players in. You can pretty much exclude premiums. Yes, he will sometimes have exactly JT, KQ or 55 here, but firstly, you have blockers to both JT and KQ, and I also see him doing that with pretty much any suited Q that he called PF with. As you said, he can have somthing like Q8 easily. That realistically means you are beating a very decent part of his value ships here, and he will be bluffing here a fair bit. I would also ask myself a question, what hands do I ...
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Josek
Dec 28th, 2016
4 left facing a suspicious min raise with a short stack
I think that it would be best if some SnG specialist could try to answer this (which I'm not). I can only tell you what I would've done, but I'm not ICM specialist. His min-raise with no FE sucks as this really looks like he is stronger rather than weaker. But on the other hand, you are the shortest here, you are in the BB and will be even shorter in 2 hands. I would probably get it in here and pray. Folding is an option, as your 3,5BB should still have minimal FE on the shorties, but the problem is, when in the SB you are not likely to get a Chance to open-shove on the BB (bigstack opens ...
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Josek
Dec 28th, 2016
Down to 3 players in MTT with JJ
1. Don't open 4x just because of the shortstack. If you were shoving on his BB from SB it's a different story, but there is a decently stacked player still to act. 2. It's a very straightforward call. It's not like you will lose and finish behind the shortstack and you are far ahead of the SB's range. This is the only thing that should matter in this spot. Especially since the shortstack just folded 30% of his stack and will now have 2BBs.
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Josek
Dec 27th, 2016
AQ post flop play
Honest question - what is your value cbet range here' don't you think that bet/folding here is way more exploitable than bet/calling'
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Josek
Dec 25th, 2016
AQ post flop play
Firstly, I did not say that all of the hands I mentioned are as likely as any other. A7 and A4 do have him beat - that's what I wrote. Is he likely to be calling with them' In my opinion, if they were suited, you would see such a defence a lot - he is defending from the blinds - better odds and only 1 player behind. If you think this will rarely happen, then you're pretty much beat by 2 hands. 44 and 77. This makes his value range even narrower. as to 35, 56 or 68 - yes, 35 is a bit of a stretch, though not impossible. 56s or 68s from the blinds wil happen a lot PF here. I'm not saying that ...
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Josek
Dec 24th, 2016
AK facing flop raise all-in middle-late stage of $7,50 Bounty Builder
It was the Button who shipped. PF he just flatted a raise. I did not say he is likely to have AK. Just that "given your holding" (so using AK as a blockers), it is more likely than Aces with only 3 combos of AA left and 6 of AK. I think this is a spot where flatted AK will happen close to never, but flatted Aces will, especially with a shortstack in the BB.
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Josek
Dec 22nd, 2016
AK facing flop raise all-in middle-late stage of $7,50 Bounty Builder
Sorry for being too pedantic but I just could not stop myself - he is still twice more likely to have AK than AA here - 3 combos of Aces vs 6 combos of AK. The hand' It's a very clear call. You are beat by what' AA, KQ and 44 (maaaybe K4s) - that's pretty much it. On the bubble, if I was in his shoes, I would be taking similar lines with draws. It may look bad, but you are considering folding AK here. If that's the case, he has a shit ton of folding equity plus an added benefit of a bounty if you end up calling and losing. He can easily have a worse K, JT, AT, AJ, AQ (even though AQ would be ...
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Josek
Dec 22nd, 2016
FT of 6-max MTT, being pushed by chip leader.
Thank you :) Getting back to poker for at least a few months after being very busy for a few years. About the hand: This spot is very tricky. His betsize is big, but not stupid big given he is OOP. Now - he is very likely to be stealing - 11% was mostly gathered 6-max i suppose and we are 4 handed now with 2 shorter stacks, 1 middle stack and him. This is a perfect spot for him to be doing this and as a reg with these stats he will know that for sure. That's why I'm obviously not folding - that I believe would be a huge mistake - what would our value open range be if TTs is a bluff' But I'm ...
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Josek
Dec 22nd, 2016
KK top set on KQJ flop in a bounty tournament (iPoker), facing 2 shoves.
I'm calling it in such tourney all day every day. There are 2 hands you are afraid of and have a decent draws against and you're a big to huge favorite against everything else. Yes, given the AI and the call, one of them is likely to show up with AT or T9, but it's not like they will have it every time. There are a lot of non straight hands that can stack off here. AK, AQ, AJ, KT, QT, JT, K9, Q9, QQ, JJ, KQ, KJ, QJ AA, TT. I think that the guy who shoves can have all of these (some more often, others less often but not never). The caller probably doesn't have some of these, but I would be ...
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Josek
Dec 22nd, 2016
AQ post flop play
I'm not folding that. If he has it, so be it. You are beat by 77, 44, A7 and A4, with you having a blocker to the Ax hands. He will sometimes overvalue his AJ/AT and he can very easily have a FD or a SD - 35, 56, 68. there are combo draws like 7x spades. He is unlikely to be on pure air 3 handed vs early position opener but his semi bluff range here is probably way too big vs the actual value range which is really narrow. Folding is out of the question imho. Whether you raise or flat doesn't change much I guess. If he doesn't have pure air or just a gutshot, he is calling a shove being pot ...
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Josek
Dec 22nd, 2016
TT facing flop raise, $7,50 Progr. KO Pokerstars
On one hand, his 38/0 stats mean he can easily have straight draws despite 4x open and a low board. But on the other, I'm always very cautious when such a player raises me. 21 hands is a small sample, but him flatting 8 hands and raising none makes it really unlikely he is anything but a passive amateur. I just don't think such players play draws fast very often and would prefer to flat his raise and reevaluate turn. getting it in is not too bad, as I think he may have a scared top pair or one of the draws ocassionally, but I also think he can do it with something like 44,66,77, A5 that will ...
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Josek
Dec 21st, 2016
lightbulb moments
I probably had some smaller ones but just don't think it works this way in general. You won't suddenly come up with some true gamechanger that will double your ROI. What you have to do instead is patiently work on your game - just as you currently do by posting here. Just do that, search for new ways of expanding you poker know-how, perhaps experiment with new ways of playing hands and put as much volume as you can while still having fun. The results will come sooner or later :)
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Josek
Dec 16th, 2016
A high flush draw facing river jam on paired board
To start off, your hand converter screwed the numer of BBs. The stacks were half of what it shows in BBs. Then, I myself would prefer to check back that turn. It's a beautiful card to barrel your bluffs on, but getting check/shoved on that one would suck pretty hard. As played, I think you have to call the turn, given you are very likely to stack him off when you hit. You need 23% with the pot as it is when facing the C/R. It will get bigger on the river 90% of the time and there is small Chance your opponent is bluffing or that rivering an Ace will also be good. This river really sucks. ...
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Josek
Dec 16th, 2016
AQs final table bubble.
Ahhh sorry. I thought this was the FT not the FT Bubble - only now noticed that. In that case this is NEVER a fold. I'm really happy to call and expect to be really far ahead of his range. Especially if he is loose, on the FT bubble and is covering you. It will very often be a play based just on that.
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Josek
Dec 16th, 2016
AQs final table bubble.
I think this is a clean cut call. I might consider folding it if there were 3-4 very short stacks or if I was 100% sure this is a table of nits - not because I would think i don't have the odds to call, but because this stack would allow me to really push them around. But the first one is not true and the second one will happen rather rarely - especially in a Proggressive KO, where the bounties now are pretty huge - eliminating you is now over 5 buy ins and possibly more if they were to ship it. I would think that you are actually in front of his range and with the odds you don't even need ...
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Josek
Dec 16th, 2016
JJ, interesting spot
I'm not sure I would have played this the same way vs a random. It's not a very bad call on the river, but in my opinion it will be a losing one in the long run, unless you have some notes on the player that he is an uber donk. There are some missed draws in his range and you will ocassionally see bluffs but vs a player who you know nothing about and flatted UTG preflop raise I would've folded the river. First I will explain why, then I will touch on a few things that you wrote. So - The guy is not representing much - AA, TT, 55, 22 and AT. He may have bluffed on the flop and turned an Ace ...
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Josek
Dec 14th, 2016