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Bankroll management - a look up chart to set your bankroll when shifting tournies
I've developed a bankroll management strategy to allow players to shift between different types of tables. I've done it for Pokerstars as that's where I usually play. Many players concentrate on one type of tournament and have a pretty good idea what they should maintain their bankroll at when cashing out to avoid going bust. However, players also sometimes like to switch to a different type of table. So I have generated a lookup table which will allow you to set your new minimum bankroll based upon your old one. What you do is look up the Variability score in the table for old ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 23rd, 2010
Re:Pokerstars "Fish Finder"
Sharkscope tournament selector is a fish finder.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 21st, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
I said I would try to set up a variance look up table. Here's one for Stars and help in using to to manage your bankroll. It's posted on my blog on sharkscopers. I also have a blog entry on how to calculate 95% confidence intervals on your ROI.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 21st, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
"I still believe that the further your true expectation is from a random condition the less of a sample size is needed to show it." That is true. The higher your ROI the fewer games you will need to play to be 95% certain of being a winning player. The 95% confidence intervals on an ROI for 100 6-seater SNGs is about +-30% So for someone with a true ROI of 31%, their ROI after 100 6-seater SNGs will lie with 95% confidence between 61% and 1% i.e. above 0. For someone with a true ROI of 20% their ROI after 100 6-seater SNGs will lie with 95% confidence between 50% and -10% i.e. ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 16th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
"I interpret variance to be a measure of the deviation from an expectation, in this case ROI or $/hr are related so either one is a good target expectation. The major difference in expectation in regular and turbo structured sng's as indicated by previous posters is the skill factor and how it modifies expectations. A skilled player has a bigger advantage in a regular game for multiple reasons. Most skilled players don't grind them because overall $/hr is lower then what they can maintain playing turbos, therefore the regular games are weaker in general. The longer structure is ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 16th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
In reply to Tyson Assumption 1: 100 games is a sufficient sample size. This is highly unlikely. There are plenty of SNG grinders that have a positive ROI but have had 500 BI periods where their ROI was flat or negative. I think a sample size of at least 500-1000 games is more reasonable for your analysis. Actually I didn't take a random sample at all, I effectively assumed it was an infinite sample by assuming no variance from their ability i.e. a perfect ratio of 25:25:50 and 23:23:54 respectively. I used a 100 numbers in an example to show people how to do such calculations but the ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 15th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
Is there a buy-in & table structure at which you've played 100s of tournaments at both regular and turbo speed' Does anyone else have a large sample of both on the same type of table with the same buy in. I'd like to actually work out the variance on two datasets from the same player' If so and you don't mind your stats being analysed could you tell me your alias, pokersite and tournament type. Unfortunately I don't have a good enough sample for my own data as I usually play turbos and the one table type I play at a normal speed has no turbo equivalent on Stars. I think ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
"I think I agree with the statistical approach taken here; it looks solid. One thing though - the example used in this (the Cereus SNGs) has identical buyin/rake structures for the normals and turbos. Given that, on Stars for example, turbo SNGs often have lower relative rake, the ROI% of 1st/2nd is higher in these games, than in their closest-equivalent normals. At that point, there's a factor increasing turbo ROI% (known, quantified by prize structure), and a factor decreasing it (known, but not quantifiable) relative to the normals. That makes it hard to say what the overall ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
I have done the calculations and I guarantee the range will not really differ between regulars and turbos. This is again the same misconception about variance. The bankroll swings will be the same but simply with starting point in turbos. In statistical terms the mean (ROI) will differ but the variance (swings) around that mean won't substanitally differ. In my example over 100 games someone with a mean ROI of 31% will achieve an ROI with +-30% with 95% confidence. So with 95% confidence it will be somewhere between 61% and 1%. For the turbos the mean ROI is 20% due to having to take ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
Exactly and very eloquently written.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
lol your ROI would be the same in a turbo vs non turbo longterm' that makes no sense. the deeper the structure and slower blind levels allows deeper stacked play thus more skill being involved. obviously if you take a pro player vs a novice at 100 bbs deep vs the same scenario at 10 bbs deep, the pro is going to show more profit with the deeper stacked play. Spot on. bottom line is faster structures/shorter stacks = more variance and less of an edge. lol, no, the same misconception rears its ugly head again. Faster structure, YES, less of an egde, YES, more variance NO!
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
I would like to know if my calculations aren't accurate, so I could correct them. But if you don't feel like telling how they aren't accurate it's difficult to respond. The swings in turbos really are not substantially different to the swings in regulars. This is the misconception I'm talking about. The only difference is in ROI. In order for the varaince in turbos to be greater you would have to get more extreme outcomes. A good player actually has less extreme outcomes. The most extreme outcome (those that increase variance the most) are victories. These deviate the ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
"Define the variables used in your variance calculations. it seems your analyzing finishes, when poker players refer to variance they are referencing bankroll swings or card variance, not pure numerical finishes." I am analysing ROI. It is the variance on your ROI that determines your bankroll swings. I'm not talking about card variance. "Lets assume the same player on Turbos wins 23% of the time (it's lower as they become more random more quickly) and comes second 23% of the time. Please explain the logic used to get to this. I believe I understand what your saying ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
Here's the superturbo stats from sharkscope compared to turbos $5 Superturbo $0.91 Turbo $1.70 $15 Superturbo $2.25 Turbo $4.67 $35 Superturbo $5.55 Turbo $11.24 $100 Superturbo $13.77 Turbo $21.27 $300 Superturbo $25.72 Turbo $41.80 Assuming a superturbo is twice the speed of a turbo then the same half the ROI rule applies. Looking at the data it seems really good players have profit levels on superturbos that are about half (may be more at higher stakes) that of a turbo. Including the rakeback from superturbos they might just be better. Personally, however I don't like them.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
I agree with every word you've said about differences in play. I disagree about the consequences of the different styles of play though. Taking more risks in turbos will substantially reduce your ROI but hardly affect your variance. You will simply get fewer cashes but the order that those cashes happens won't be affected. Downswings will simply seem worse as the baseline ROI is lower and thus there will be longer periods where you'll be down but the actually variance i.e. the amplitude of those swings really won't vary much at all between turbos and regulars. I think the ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Re:Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
In the long run you can't maintain the same ROI on turbo as you can on Regulars. In the same way you can't maintain the same ROI on superturbos as turbos. Here's the evidence: This data is the average profit for the player at the top of each of the sharkscope leaderboards for for turbos and non-turbos for 5-6seaters $5 Regular $2.18 Turbo $1.70 $15 Regular $5.71 Turbo $4.67 $35 Regular $12.54 Turbo $11.24 $100 Regular $23.34 Turbo $21.27 $300 Regular $51.16 Turbo $41.80 For every category the ROI for the Regular is about 10-20% higher than the ROI for the Turbo ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010
Variance in Turbos v Normal Speed - a common misconception
Enter text here.Enter text here.*Thread added to Strategy Archives* Sit & Gos Hello, I've noticed many threads, comments, discussions on poker messageboards about variance in relation to turbos and normal speed SNGs. There is a pervasive misconception that variance is greater when playing turbos than normal tables. It isn't. Even Jennifear (who I respect more than any other writer of online poker articles) gets this one wrong in her article on whether you should play turbos or normal speed tournaments by saying it's slightly higher in turbos. After seeing yet another ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		Landsbanki
Jan 14th, 2010