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FTP: Time for a new update!!!! ASAP
This was posted at 2+2. Not good news. I have written off my money as well. "I was having lunch on Friday (1/6/2012) with friends when one noticed Doyle Brunson walking into the adjacent Five Guys Burgers at 9484 W. Tropicana in Las Vegas. So two of us went over to say hi and invite him to join us. He said he was waiting for someone to join him. We talked a bit and then I asked if he had any insight about whether Full Tilt would every pay back American players. Doyle responded by saying "I am actually waiting for Howard Lederer to join me, but I am doubtful the players will ever get any of ...
Posted in: Poker Sites 		OMAHA_BURKE
Jan 7th, 2012
Petition to Make the Sunday Million a Skill Game Again
Going to 20 minute levels would be a good start. The extra couple of hours it would run will only affect less than 50 player ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Mar 8th, 2011
Is money or bracelet more important?
If you could win a wsop event and take home $500,000 and the bracelet, or finish 2nd, and get $550,000 which would you choose' If you pick 500k+bracelet, how much more would it take to have you opt for the money and 2nd place instead' 600k' 700k' (assume your win is legitimate, and you are recoginzed as true champion. I am just trying to get an idea of how much a bracelet is worth to people. )
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Dec 15th, 2010
Odds to win 7,000 player event?
WOW, you are right rayfox. I didnt think I would get such sophomoric replies. I will spare any more nonsense by noting the answer to 1) is D- 159 years to finish in top 18 and 2) is C-89 years to finish in top 36. as for the odds question, I would think around 875 picks to have even money odds, and if you pick just 100, you would need odds of about 16.5-1
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Dec 3rd, 2010
Odds to win 7,000 player event?
If you could look at the poker resume of each player in a a typical WSOP main event with 7000 players, how many players do you think you need to pick to have an even money chance of picking the eventual winner' Note random picks would require 3500 selections. Also, if you could only pick 100 players, what odds do you think you would need for it to be a fair bet' Note random picks would require odds of 70 for 1. Finally, a quiz with a known answer. If you were 4 times as likely to win the main event vs. an average player (ie one who would win only 1 in 7000, vs your winning it 1 in 7000/4= ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Dec 3rd, 2010
holy f#$#)*# s#*% wtf !!!1!1!!
I keep a sheet of paper at my desk when I play. Whenever I get all in, I write down the hands, and the size of the pot, and who won. Later when I have time, I then enter the hands in analyzer to get the percentages. Then when I am done playing, I enter the data in an excel spreadsheet. I keep seperate stats for all preflop stats and allin post flop stats. I then combine the for a summary. it looks a bit like this: % equity Won Lost expected Chip equity Chip Actual difference 100% 99% 98% etc. 57% 2 1 1.71 2456 2956 +500 56% 55% 20% 1 8 1.80 950 340 -610 down to 0% summary 3 9 3.51 3406 ...
Posted in: Bad Beats 		OMAHA_BURKE
Oct 4th, 2010
I just folde AK pre flop with 15bbs. Flame away!
andressoprano says it all. easy fold when you have 3 raises in front of you. 2nd raiser likely has KK+.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Oct 4th, 2010
holy f#$#)*# s#*% wtf !!!1!1!!
I agree. Too many players running like God and thinking it is their great play getting it in "good" with AK vs TT and winning 70% of time when they should only win 43%. I never seem to see any stats when these posts are made. I suggest you "prove" how bad you are running by actually recording everytime you are allin or have someone else allin. Record what percent your chance of winning is, then record if you won or lost. If you are 60% favorite, and win, they you are .40 allin wins above expectation. If you lose then you are -0.60 below expecation. Also keep track of chip equity. For example ...
Posted in: Bad Beats 		OMAHA_BURKE
Oct 4th, 2010
Born to Run
I got the book as a birthday gift but have yet to read it.
Posted in: Off Topic 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 15th, 2010
Wtf spot WCOOP 21 with QQ
My read that bb's raise SCREAMED AA was dead on. turns out sb had AA too. LOL. So my analysis was spot on once again even though everyone here more or less wanted to get it all in preflop. LOL.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 15th, 2010
Call off with AK??
Why yes, pairs do beat AK. If you get your money allin preflop heads up with AK vs JJ at every opportunity and are happy to be "racing" then good luck to you. You are only 43% to win. Do this everytime and your ROI will be -62%. On the flop side, if you hold the JJ and get it in everytime vs AK, then your ROI will be 105%. I'll take the JJ vs AK everytime.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 15th, 2010
Call off with AK??
We used to have a saying in my college computer classes before 95% of the readers of this board were even born that said "Garbage in, garbage out". Here the garbage in is a faulty hand range given the betting action. The range of {JJ+, AKs, AKo} is too loose based on the action. JJ+ is more reasonable, and QQ+ is even more likely. When the OP 3 bet to 2200, that sent a clear signal to the bb, that OP has either JJ+ or AK. Thus for bb to then shove big on top of thats is saying he has that range beat. Thus AK is likely removed, as is JJ, leaving AA or KK the most likely hands, with QQ ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 13th, 2010
Wtf spot WCOOP 21 with QQ
keep jamming with QQ vs AA and see how that works out for you.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 13th, 2010
Call off with AK??
TpocketT, nice post. well thought out and written. Something for me to think about. thanks.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 13th, 2010
Rivered the nuts. Has anyone taken this line before?
on that final board all you need is an 8 for a straight. your opponent led out with a bet. He either has the 8, or is bluffing. he is not value betting 2pr or 3kind. since you have 8T, then correct play is to shove like you did because 99% of players with a lone 8 will call you. I've made this play myself. Doesnt come up that often but making a small raise on the end will not get 2pr or trips to call you anyway. So just shove it all in and hope he has an 8 and plays badly and calls.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Wtf spot WCOOP 21 with QQ
Good idea. I spend too much time trying to help others here. But they don't seem to care. Their minds are already made up, and only want to hear what they agree with even though they are wrong. I'll just take their money and they will just shrug it off as "gee another 5 bet cooler with AK vs AA or QQ vs KK" LOL
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Call off with AK??
These "do I call here with AK" posts are all the same. Someone gets AK, there are 2-3 shoves/raises in front of them, and they decide to make a horrible call and lose to AA or KK or QQ as advertised, then make their post here to try and feel better when all the "experts" tell them it was the right thing to do. The "badge brigade" all chime in that " you can never fold AK" and then give some faulty range to support some erroneous math because of course they can never fold AK because they happened to luckbox their way to a big score or two by sucking out with it. I guarentee Hellmuth or ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Wtf spot WCOOP 21 with QQ
if you were really playing well, you would even consider folding preflop to his raise to 3k. You only have 1300 invested and likely between the two blinds both an ace and king are out and bb likely has AA anyway. As it is, it will cost you about 1500 to set mine for the rest of his 15k stack, so you are getting 10-1 if you just call his raise to 3k preflop. If you dont hit a Q and he bets flop like a person with AA would, then again you can bail. But that is so hard for 99% of players to do. So likely you call his 4500 flop bet. Then when he shoves turn, you have your final chance to fold and ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Wtf spot WCOOP 21 with QQ
with the small raise to 3k by the bb, that just SCREAMS AA as he wants action. If he has AK or QQ, or JJ, he would make a much larger bet as he will be out of position post flop and would rather take it down right there. Still nobody on this site can fold QQ in that spot. Your best bet when he made it 3k is to just call and not 3 bet it to 7800 like you did. Then if no A or K on flop, if he still bets like he has AA, then maybe peel one card to see if he bets again. If he does, then muck. If A or K hits flop and he bets, then muck as well. Bottom line, he likely has AA.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Call off with AK??
wow, calling here is just so bad, especially if you are a good player. Someone showed the math where 39.2% equity was needed and 42% was given if you put shover on range of JJ+,AKo,AKs You are calling off 46 big blinds with at best a 3% edge. That is crazy! Especially when you consider your range may be off. If it was JJ+ only, then your equity falls to 38.3% and it is a losing EV call. Also, 1st raiser could easily have folded an Ace or King to make your equity even worse. As it was, shover had KK and AKs called and lost. I keep track of my allin advantage everytime I get called and I am ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 12th, 2010
Call off with AK??
LOL! If you had AQ would you even consider calling' You have 3 raises in front of of you, and you are even considering calling''''!!! That is crazy. 100% chance you are behind. Your M is over 40. This is an EASY, INSTA, AUTO, TURBO Fold.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 10th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
Wow, I must have hit a nerve by suggesting more fair (ie flatter) payouts. I know this site caters to the top online tournament players. Many of whom are in their teens and twenties and don't yet have the life exprience to see things any other way. I can see where they might feel threatened if the pay for the top 3 is cut. But if top heavy payouts are so great, then why is there a deal made virtually every week between the final 3-6 players in the Sunday Million' I suspect many are being backed. After 1st "proving" themselves worthy by luckboxing a big score only to blow through it after ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 8th, 2010
What % of ranked players are broke?
I recently talked to a player who said in 2008 he was ranked in the top 200 and yet was a huge loser for the year. Reading of others in the same situation leads me the think the leader board formula used by PocketFives needs to be changed. Currently it awards points based on the formula (prizepool)^0.5/(placefinish)^0.6 This obviously does not take into account net wins/losses. This is an important omission and should be addressed. Any player ranked in top 1000 under current rankings who is a net losing player should not be listed period. Only a combination of net winnings, and high ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 8th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
This is a common misconception. You are not the only one with this faulty thinking. Yes, in a vacuum, top heavy payouts will increase ROI of top players. But weak players will soon adjust and not play due to either going broke, or realizing they do not have a real chance to make top 3. Thus flatter payouts will keep the fields large and make it easier for good players to win. Also, the Point leader board formula is (prizepool)^.5/(placefinished)^0.6 So loweringt he pay for 1st will have NO effect on the points earned since it is based on the size of the prizepool and not the size of 1st ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 7th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
I like that one. You can call me the Poker Savior too if you like since I am trying to save tournament poker from busting everyone. Note the thread below asking how many top ranked players are busted. Now why would that be' Oh, they must not have gotten a top 3 finish recently, but if they had flatter payouts, they wouldnt be busted since they would have more to show for their other in the money cashes.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 7th, 2010
WCCOP #3 payout suggestion.....
Thread Merged: WCOOP #3 payout suggestion..... Wccop #3, $215 buyin with 12,066 players. Someone requested I post what a more reasonable paytable should be, so here it is for just the top 99 players. In the suggesed pay, only the top 6 pay less. all other pay a lot more. (x#7) In the WCOOP they have some silly payjumps like 7th place paying double 8th place. And the ratio from 1st to 9th is 22-1! WAY TOO HIGH! Come on Pokerstars, you can do better than that. 6-1 to 9-1 is much more reasonable. Also, a stunning 46.54% of total prize pool went to the top 9 players. The suggested pay lowers ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 7th, 2010
alot of brand new accounts making WCOOP final tables wtf ???
One thing you can do is make the payouts flatter, so when they win they dont cart off $335k for 1st like in say WCOOP #3, when it should only pay $190k or less for 1st. That way they steal less.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 7th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
Congratulations, you have mastered level 1 thinking. If you were a poker player, this would mean you only think about the cards you have. But to be good, you have to think on 3 more levels. DUCY' Lets use your level one thinking, and make all touraments winner take all. This will give the good player the maximum ROI. If you are 3x better than the average player, then your ROI will be 300% less the 6-10% entrance fee. But with winner take all, you as a winning player will now become a losing player' Why is that' Because you failed at level 2 thinking. Level 2, will show that a typical 8,000 ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 6th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
The problem is that poker tournaments are paying too much to the top places. This can be easily seen by looking at other sports. In the US Open golf tournament, there were 156 players, and 1st paid 1.26 million out of a 7.5 million prize pool. This was 16% of the pool. A typical poker tournamnet with 156 players would pay around 28% to 1st.--- Way too much. The Indy 500 had 33 starters and 1st paid 2 million out of a 13 million prize pool. This was 20% of the prize pool. A typical poker tournament would have paid 45% to 1st place with only 33 players. Again, poker paying way too much. The ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 5th, 2010
Flatten WSOP main event payouts?
you might get only 100 players if it were winner take all instead of 975. Also, the way it was structured, if you never finished in the top 6, your ROI would be -52%. If you never got 1st or 2nd, your ROI would be -24.37%. If you never won, your ROI would be -7%. Good luck trying to be a winning tournament player bucking those odds.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		OMAHA_BURKE
Sep 5th, 2010