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Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
LOL. Don't take the metrics so literally. I'm aware of fan voting, MVPs generally coming from playoff teams, etc.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
Jun 1st, 2012
**2012 OT MLB Power Rankings - Memorial Day Edition**
Yea, but their Pythagorean record indicates that they really only won 1.94 of those games.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
Jun 1st, 2012
Cold Turkey; 3-4 liters of wine a night to nothing for a month <long and boring?>
GL OP. I'm not much of a wine drinker - 3-4 liter sounds like a lot. About how many shots of liquor is that the alcohol equivalent of' I also have severe sleep issues, I can't fall asleep sober. It doesn't have to be alcohol, but I pretty much need something in my system, or anxiety takes over when I am in bed by myself.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
Jun 1st, 2012
**2012 OT MLB Power Rankings - Memorial Day Edition**
"Stupid" is of course a little harsh, although I agree with your sentiment. I can understand more casual fans' displeasure with the baseball nerds like myself turning America's pasttime into a spreadsheet. It can be overwhelming, and I understand that you feel like you aren't part of the conversation. But sabermetrics provide a much more accurate framework for evaluating players than the eye test or traditional counting stats do. I know some older guys might still be impressed by a player's RBI totals, but that person would be objectively wrong to place more weight on that than the player's ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
Jun 1st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Honestly I just automatically connect 2-3 WAR with "starter", 4-6 WAR with "All-Star", and 7-10 WAR with "MVP". When I watch baseball I enjoy it just like everyone else. When discussing baseball after the fact, looking at big picture stuff, I can't imagine discussing it without the use of sabermetrics.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Meh, I guess Castro isn't being shopped after all' Damn these conflicting reports.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
I'm sure the Cubs are anxious to sell high on LaHair. Garza also has trade value. While Castro's low BB rate is a red flag, he is going to consistently post very high BABIPs throughout his 20s, just like Ichiro did. As I posted on the Pirates forum that I frequent, Castro's low walk rate is one of the reasons why Castro is going to be a 5 WAR All-Star and not an 8 WAR MVP. He's still very valuable. I highly doubt it would take "much" more than Cole and a B prospect. The Bucs have a few young hitters at A ball that are very interesting, one who is already a top 100 prospect (Josh Bell) and ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
The Cubs are in full fire-sale mode: they are willing to trade anyone on their MLB roster (including Castro), except Jeff Samardzija. I'm going to use my "one time" in baseball to trade Cole or Taillon and one of our AAA arms for Castro. Acquire Castro, then swap a B prospect for a decent corner bat, and we win the division. One fucking time, Pirates, make a move.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Aint no homos gonna make it to heaven
Adam, Eve, and Jesus were all white and relatively good looking. Eve was a B-cup and didn't shave her bush. Did you never go to Sunday School'
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Aint no homos gonna make it to heaven
God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Then again, God didn't create Adam and LaToya, either, so I am pretty sure God is also against interracial marriage.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Re: Greinke, he definitely pitched like an ace last season, pitching just as effectively as his 2009 Cy Young campaign. In '09 he was incredibly lucky; last season he was very unlucky. This really shouldn't surprise anyone, especially the '09 season, when Greinke posted a 2.16 ERA. That ERA was more than a full run lower than his second best season. Verlander last season also had positive variance hit him hard, posting an ERA almost a full run lower than his second best season. Not surprisingly, Verlander's ERA last season was almost three-quarters of a run better than his xFIP. As someone ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
The other stats look OK, but W/L record is completely irrelevant.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Your argument seems to be: ERA is a more reliable stat than xFIP. Last season, Greinke had a lower xFIP than Kershaw. Kershaw had a lower ERA than Greinke. But we all know that Kershaw had a better season last year (the implicit assumption being that he had the better year because we know ERA is more reliable), so xFIP must be flawed.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
ERA says Brandon Beachy is better than Clayton Kershaw this season; xFIP indicates Kershaw is way better. Which is a better metric' Now do we see why picking out one data point to prove a statistical trend is dumb'
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
I value the opinion of a knowledgable fan who has access to FanGraphs over an idiot who has seen every game.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 31st, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
on LuCroy's injury: "Interestingly enough, Lucroy suffered the injury during an accident in his hotel room when he was reaching for a sock under the bed and his wife bumped a suitcase that fell on his right hand." LOL, yea right. Congrats on the sex injury!
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 30th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Really there's no way you can say that anyone in the NL is the Player of the Month "hands down." Votto, Braun, and others are right there. I pretty much have to give a shoutout to Cutch on this one, too, since he has the highest wOBA and wRC+ (advanced stats involving offensive production) in the NL in May. Cutch hit .378/.442/.744 in May, with all 8 of his homers on the season coming during the month. He led the NL in slugging. Not bad for a small-ish, speedy centerfielder. Hey, what do you know' The Bucs also have the best pitcher in the month of May. J-Mac leading the NL with 1.6 WAR (2nd ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 30th, 2012
**2012 OT MLB Power Rankings - Memorial Day Edition**
I don't know exactly where the Cards and Reds belong, but I know it's not 9 spots apart from each other. You can squeeze advanced stats into any narrative you want. Yes, the Cards' run differential is impressive, but that high rate of runs scored was generated by tremendous luck when you combine their BABIP with career years from dudes in their mid thirties. Kind of hilarious that the O's were rated 3rd and 21st by two of the rankers. I know people have their own subjective ways of rating teams, but I'm not sure how you get that much of a disparity. I'd certainly rank them closer to 21st ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 30th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Trumbo is walking significantly more, but his K rate is actually slightly up this season. I'd be surprised if he ended the season with a BA above .300, in spite of him being spotted a 33 point lead. There was a lot of discussion on the Pirates blog this offseason about swapping Hanrahan for Trumbo. The consensus among the more knowledgable posters there was that Trumbo wasn't worth it because of his lack of plate discpline. He looks pretty good right now. I don't think he has Adam Dunn power, but he could hit for a slightly higher average, in the .270s.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 29th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 28 - June 3
Obligatory "Bucs are .500!" post. These games against the Reds (we play them 6 times out of the next 9 games) are pretty huge for the Bucs' chances of competing. I expect the Cards to severely regress, and the Reds are the best team in the NL Central. But if the Bucs get lucky over the next few weeks, we'll stay in it. And if we're in it in June and July, we'll probably add a bat by the trade deadline. Keep the dream alive!
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 28th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
He has gone from a fringe MLBer a few years ago to a very good starter the last two seasons. His luck has made him look like a superstar this season, but he isn't one in the long-term. He plays average defense in the corner outfield spots. He doesn't slug enough to be a star.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 27th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
Really' I guess you don't understand how an internet forum works. I have almost 10 K posts on this forum. I'm a diehard Pittsburgh sports fan. My fucking screen name is Pghfan. I post what I am thinking, period. If people are tired of hearing me talk about my favorite baseball team in the OT baseball thread, they can ignore me. I don't give a shit. Besides, having posters being fans of different teams is what makes this thread interesting. I know Wantagolf is a Padres fan, AMartin is a Yankees fan, Gamma is an Angels fan, Quietwinner is a Cards fan, etc, etc. I expect those people to make ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 27th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
When you play the Bucs, it's going to be a dead ball era game, that's for sure. Our rotation is very good, our bullpen is filthy. I know the Bucs are an easy target, given their history, but they are a league average team right now, certainly no easy victory. The Bucs have had the hardest strength of schedule for any team outside the AL East, and we have faced an absurd amount of aces. There are 19 starting pitchers in the NL with an ERA below 3 - the Bucs have faced 15 of them already. That's ridiculous.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 27th, 2012
Syrian Massacre
oi
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 27th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
I read an article about that. I think it's an OK move. Speed is pretty overrated when it comes to the top of the order ... since when do you prefer guys stealing when your best hitter is at the plate, anyway' Pena was getting on base a lot from walks, might as well take advantage of that. Also, Maddon admitted that putting Pena there was simply to take the pressure off him from hitting home runs. I should have been the leadoff hitter on my high school team. I had a .500 OBP (second highest on the team), mediocre power, and was slow as fuck.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
Over/ under Josh Hamilton's next contract: $200 million.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012
drunk thread. post here if you are drunk.
Gettin' there. It's been a rough year for me poker-wise. Really bad. I have a bottle of Smirnoff with me right now cuz it's $12 and going out would cost me $50. Going to record another rap song in June, hopefully making it better than Functioning Alcoholic. (Let's pretend the second song didn't exist.) Going to make sure the flow doesn't suck this time, and the lyrics will be as good as ever. Might even create my own beat. I just know I need to do something with my spare time that won't cost me money and will keep my mind off of bad thoughts.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
YESSS!!!! The Bucs win the game in the bottom of the ninth against the Cubs in a walk-off hit by pitch!
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
From Bustey Olney: Cubs shut out Friday with 10 H, three SB. ELIAS: Only 3 times has a team been shut out since 1900 with at least 10 hits, 3 SB—all three CHC
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012
Baseball Discussion May 21-27
Luck has a lot to do with it ... he has a .404 BABIP right now, compared to his .305 career average. I would call him a "disastrous" extension candidate right now.
Posted in: Off Topic 		Pghfan987
May 26th, 2012