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What are my choices? Flush draw, big pot.
I'd fold pre after the BB raises (i'd also raise pre vs the limpers). Yes, you're getting a good price, but against a tight player, you're drawing to very few outs. Axx boards are going to have you dominated unless you flop 2 pair (which is still vulnerable on AQx, AKx, AJx boards vs villains 2 pair combos), 3x is going to do you any good, and you're only going to flop a flush/flush draw 12% of the time, which doesn't compensate for the ~30-35% equity you have vs the BB raise. As played, I'd fold. At best, this is really close to breakeven and with a decent stack, I don't see much of a point ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 20th, 2014
Guaranteed Tournament Shenanigans?
As a serious response, this policy creates the perfect balance for both players and sites. Players want a guaranteed prizepool and it's risky for the site to offer it since if it's missed they lose money. Having a min number of entrants allows the site to manage their risk by not running any tournaments for which the demand appears minimal. Now...late registration makes coming up the right min number tricky. But overall, I prefer guaranteed MTTs and if a site chooses to manage its exposure/risk by having a min number of players, that's fine by me -- with the exception being I expect them to ...
Posted in: Poker Sites
tyson219
Aug 20th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
Your post quoting him says that the 2x/4x rule results in 4:1 while the correct way of doing it is 3.4:1. That's false. The correct way is 10 outs/46 unseen cards = 46:10 = 4.6:1 = (subtract 1) 3.6:1 pot odds. Yes, it's off, but by .4/3.6 -- or 11%. My point is that his podcast uses the wrong numbers and you keep requoting them. The quote you have from the podcast is: "for example, let's say we do the 4/2 method with 10 outs, we're getting 20% which would mean that we need 4-to-1 in pot odds ... which is incorrect because we are actually only need 3.4-to-1 in pot odds" You can calculate ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 20th, 2014
AJo on button facing 22bb 3bet shove on final table bubble
It's a really close spot. Against a range of 55+, A8s+,ATo+,KQo we have 43.82% equity. Against a range that also includes some suited broadways (KJs+, QJs, JTs) it's 45.93% equity. From a cEV perspective, you need about 44%-44.5% equity to call (depends on exact stacks + blinds + antes). Making a close fold on a FT bubble is fine due to ICM implications. The issue with making a close fold based on those ranges is if your ranges are wrong. Against a range of something like 22+,A8s+,ATo+, KJo+, suited broadway you have closer to 49% equity and it's getting to be more a close fold to a bad ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 20th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
45 should be used on both the flop and turn. The reason is simple: 45 is divisible by multiples of 3 and 5, making it easy to do the math on the fly. The true calculation is 47 and 46, but a rounding down to 45 gets you a fairly close estimate and is much easier to calculate. Technically, if you can narrow villains range to a point where you can assume he doesn't have any of your outs, it's also fine to take 1-2 cards off the number of unknown cards, so sometimes 45 is also the correct #. Either way, it's a rule of 45 because of the divisibility of the number. I'm not misunderstanding. The ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Why the 4x/2x rule is hurting your game
In all fairness to other posters, you asked a question about pot odds and then decided to teach us all something about pot odds. It's a very odd start to posting here...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Are we ever ahead in this spot??
I think you made the correct fold. Villains limping range preflop is pretty wide. On the turn/river, I'd expect him to have a better Tx hand, 66 or 22. There's not many backdoor flushes in his range, but even the small % of his range that consists of these are ahead of you. Don't really see any hands being played this way that you beat and a pure bluff doesn't make sense, especially from a preflop limper.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
Keep it civil please. There's no need to get personal, make attacks or any of these other antics you two are up to (and I don't want any followups about "he started it..."). It's over and done and it's time to focus on the poker side of things. Any more posts with that junk are going to get snap deleted along with anything else that may or may not be useful that is contained in the post.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
1010 post flop vs calling station type player
I prefer looking at fold to flop cbet and fold to turn cbet stats in spots like these. A small sample though, so hard to say for sure. What's apparent is that villain is a station preflop. That often continues postflop and they won't fold with any pair, draws, random floats, gutshots, etc. I'd bet turn for value since we should be able to get value from all of his draws and maybe even hands like 9x. I'd bet on the smaller side to keep his draws in and to ensure we don't value town ourselves too hard when he has Kx. I also tend to c/c a lot of rivers if the draws brick, so a smaller turn bet ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Was i Supossed to fold JJ here??
Yeah, agree with pokerdude. @rungood, you pretty much summed it up. It's better to c/c turn since we're rarely getting value on turn + river vs 2 pair hands. So a c/c doesn't lose value since we can often get it on the river anyway. At the same time c/c allows us to a call a turn bet with boat equity and since villain has some bluff/thin value range, we may also be ahead. Issue is that if villain bets really big, we don't have the right equity to call and need to start deciding whether villain has the nuts or is possibly bluffing/thin value betting and weighting those ranges ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
You seem to be making some things up here or misreading. While it's true 4x/2x is less accurate, it's actually not that big of a deal. If someone is already comfortable with one approach, I wouldn't change it -- especially for MTTs where average stacks are 30-40bbs at most and a very slight miscalculation isn't going to be a big deal. As effective stacks increase, it matters more, which makes it more important to have it correct for cash games. A couple quick notes about your post. First, Not sure why you're using 45 and 44 cards. That's only applicable if you know the villain's hole ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
Never mind, I realized the difference. With 45/9, it's not 25% like you wrote but 20%. You need to win 4x the bet amount, so equity is 1x (the bet)/5x (the bet + the pot). That gets you 20%. The exact calculation is 19.6%. And the rule of 2x is 18%. With 12 outs, it's 27% with x/45 rule, 26% with exact calc and 24% with 2x rule. It's true that the x/45 rule is going to be a better calculation. I don't use it because 45/12 isn't an easy calculation to do in your head while playing multiple tables so I default to 2x/4x, which gets you relatively close (only off by 1-2% percentage points). ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 19th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
Can you post the 45 rule' It doesn't seem correct to me. Or perhaps you're calculating something wrong... We know mathematically that on the turn there are 4 cards on the board and 2 cards in your hand, so there are 6 known and 46 unknown cards. You have 11 outs - so it's 11/46 -- that's 23.9% equity. 2x rule of thumb gives you 22%, so it's close enough to know whether it's an easy fold, close spot, or easy call. In the pure flush draw example, the math is simply 9/46 = 19.6% compared to rule of thumb of 18%. The issue with using a pure calculation or any other kind of rule is that ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 18th, 2014
Congrats to Dipthrong
Congrats!
Posted in: Poker Community
tyson219
Aug 18th, 2014
82BB, MP, Bottom Set, 4-handed on J92 two-toned board, Early in Tourney, bet sizing?
In addition to what gags said, you're also focusing too much on a small % of villains range. While OESFD is in his range, that's 2 combinations of hands out 100+. For every OESFD draw he has, there's 3 non diamond suited combos of the same hand in villains range as well... Focus less on getting value from the very top of his range (since those hands basically play themselves) and more on getting value from weak draws, weak pairs, over cards, etc I'd bet 800-o900 here. Also, since villain on the button 3b pre, sometimes I'll check to him to at least get a cbet. It's fine to lead here ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 18th, 2014
is this a standard shove
You'll get better responses and improve more if you include the additional detail you provided in later posts. That allows you to get specific feedback that gives you the rationale instead of simply having people say the shove was fine. As gags said, shoving is always better than folding. The biggest advice I can give you is try to build your stack and accumulate chips. You're going to lose flips deep - the key to success is to build your stack so that you can absorb losing those hands and still have a healthy enough stack to continue. Also, charts are still correct when avg stacks ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 18th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
2/4 rule is off at the extremes (very few outs and lots of outs). In the middle, it's not exact but it's close. The benefit of it is that you can easily calculate when multitabling, which isn't usually possible when making the exact calculation. If you want an exact calculation, just do # outs/unknown cards. So on the turn, 11/46 (can make similar calculation for the flop but it's one extra step)
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 17th, 2014
Poker math 101 with HH example
The way I think about it is: (1) how much equity do I have' and (2) what equity do I require' To answer the pot odds question (part 2), it's 4560 to call and total pot size will be 19320. So you need at least 4560/19320 = 23.6% equity. You have 11-12 outs (since some diamonds will pair the board and could potentially boat up the villain), so you have approximately 22-24% equity (using the 2x per out rule). Overall, you have 22-24% equity and you need at least 23.6% equity to call. Since this is only a rough approximation, the basic thing you can take away is that this is a very close ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 17th, 2014
am i too shallow to 3 bet here?
Wow, never understood how that worked. Really excited to go play poker with a full understanding now! Thanks for explaining the rules. I'm not going to respond to the rest of your post because you're missing a lot of other factors and not thinking about some of the alternative ways this hand will play out vs a good player. If you actually care to learn and not just post rambling nonsense, I'll respond. But I really don't think you care and just want to spew your theory on how to play poker, which from all of your prior posts, isn't a very good one.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
was this the correct fold
Yes, that's an easy fold. Against a UTG shove, 22 isn't doing well enough here to call for 9bbs.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
ICM push/fold spot - Final table. 7 left. A3o btn w 13bb. Pay outs listed
You really don't get it. This isn't the right way to think about poker. I don't think you care and I don't think you want to understand how to become better. Nonetheless, I'll briefly explain. It's not about 17:2, 17:4, 17:6, etc. It's about equity. Define calling ranges for the blinds, figure out equity vs those ranges, determine the cEV of the shove based on how often you get called. Based on that, is it good or isn't it' Then, since this is an ICM decision, use that to figure out ICM implications. At that point, you can decide whether it's a good shove or bad shove. The whole point ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
is this a standard shove
It doesn't seem like you want to improve. Multiple people in multiple threads have suggested looking at push/fold charts, which can pretty much dictate your preflop decisions when short stacked (
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
am i too shallow to 3 bet here?
@gjallen - there's a flaw in your logic. 1) viewing anything as X% of your stack is usually a flaw. We should think about spots in terms of EV and risk/reward sometimes. Using it's only X% of your stack as a logical reason to take a certain line can potentially open you up to supporting a lot of poor decisions (for example, flatting J3s when 200bbs deep and it's only 1% of your stack seems fine using that logic, but it's still terrible given how poorly J3s plays. 2) We should be comparing the EV of both lines. It's easy to calculate the EV of a shove since we can calculate a calling range, ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
ICM push/fold spot - Final table. 7 left. A3o btn w 13bb. Pay outs listed
Yes, I'd probably just fold pre unless there are nits in the big blind. If you think you'll get folds ~50% of the time from the blinds, it's fine to r/f, but that's relatively high to expect given stacks. Also @gjallen, just because people are calling wider, it doesn't make shoving wider correct. For example, if you expect BB to deviate from the nash range and call with 22-33, A2s-A6s, A7o, KTs, KJs, KQo, KJo, and QJs, we only have 49.93% equity with A3o, Given ICM implications, we definitely don't want to expand our shoving range. Similarly, the reason we can shove the bottom of our nash ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
Investing 30.000 USD on PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker
How is this different from /' I feel like you're fishing for a magic recipe for winning and not actually looking for specific advice. If you're serious, pick the game you're best at that will maximize your hourly profit. Then play poker, make money, study/improve/work hard, make more money. If you want more advice than was provided in the other thread, you need to provide some specifics on what you're thinking and what exactly you're hoping to get out of the responses.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
multiple cash tables
The other thing to consider is that you want be considering your hourly profit to some extent. For example (exagerated for the purpose of this example), if you can play 20 tables at 50NL and make 4BBs/100 or 5 tables at 100NL at 4BBs/100, it's always going to be better to play more tables of 50NL since your hourly profit is higher. On the flip side, if you have the same profit at both stakes but you can 6 tables at 50NL and 4 tables at 100NL, you have a higher hourly profit playing 100NL. That said, there's also a benefit of developing multi-tabling skills and figuring out the point at which ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
Simple spot made slightly complicated
Villain is betting exactly 75% of pot (1135 with antes). Question in my mind is: If he usually bets exactly half pot and then bets 75% in this spot, is that a notable change' In my opinion button clickers are button clickers and I'm still shoving here. If villain usually entered a bet that ranged from 45-55% pot and this time entered a bet that was larger, I'd be suspicious. But it seems like he's just clicking a different button this time and I don't feel strongly that it's a significant tell (I'd have a different opinion if he bet even a couple chips more or less).
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
Why you aren't good at poker, and what you need to do to get better
You're both hijacking this thread and neither of you have added more than a pinch of substantive additions to the original post. Pretty ridiculous that you both feel the need to have these stupid exchanges in a public forum where nobody else really cares or follows.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 16th, 2014
Spot FT 5r 7.5k GTD
Meh, I save the high-fiving my screen for spots where I'm very happy getting it in. This is a spot where there's a MP shove over a UTG open and we're calling off because of pot odds, not because we dominate the range of the reshove. It's obviously a call, but I never love getting it in behind at a FT with ICM implications, so no, I'm not thrilled and high-fiving anything here.
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 15th, 2014
ICM push/fold spot - Final table. 7 left. A3o btn w 13bb. Pay outs listed
Here's the info from HoldemResources: HoldemResources Nash Results Based on ICM, your stack at the time is worth 11.91% (if I didn't mess up the payouts). The 10.9% figure is what you'd get from a chip chop (where each chip is valued the same). ICM takes into consideration stack sizes, so the calculation is a bit different. So you'd get ~$650 from an ICM chop. On the button, the following are profitable shoves: 27.3%, 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A4o K8s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T8s+ 98s It gets really borderline at the bottom of that range, so it's okay to tighten it up a bit. Also, I generally ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
tyson219
Aug 15th, 2014