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Re:Thoughts on Poker career progression
40% ROI is very high even for $16 turbos. How big is your sample size' Even 500 samples is not high enough to verify a ROI for SNGs. However I am sure that you cannot maintain that ROI, or anywhere close to it at the $50 level, even if you are one tabling. Regardless, do the math. 6 $16 SNGs per 6 hours is probably more than you are currently producing. Thats $96 in buy ins and $134 in winnings. Net = $38/day. Assume you play 25 days per month and that adds up to $950/mos. Not bad for bankroll building on the side. However, as I said above, I think maintaining that 40% long term might be ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Dec 28th, 2008
Re:Thoughts on Poker career progression
Go and get a lesson from Jennifear. She can answer all your questions and teach you how to crush SNGs. Your plan may be a little unrealistic, but could be possible depending on how much volume you can put in. ROIs vary greatly depending on what level SNG you are playing. However if you Sharkscope some of the winners on a site you can see what ROI levels they win at. Low level SNGs (below $20) seem to be crushed by 20% ROIs or so. As you move up the scale, 5% is a winning player at the $50 level and a 10% ROI there is a monster. The ROI numbers drop off even more as you go higher on the buy in ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Dec 28th, 2008
Re:Stars server problems?
I couldnt get on for about 5 minutes and then I got back on. This is the only time this month I have had a problem. Very annoying since I was blinded out of two SNGs during that time.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Dec 25th, 2008
Stars server problems?
Anyone else having trouble connecting to their site tonight' I am in several tournaments and not connecting to any there.... I can get here and everywhere else on the internet....
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Dec 25th, 2008
Re:What's the most royal flushes you have ever had?
I play a lot of poker JustKLLinITQ, what can I say. When you play a lot, you get to see everything and I have. And oh yes I am serious as a heart attack. If you multi-tabled 6-8 tables or more for years, you will see a lot of hands too.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Nov 14th, 2008
Re:What's the most royal flushes you have ever had?
You guys must not play that much! I have had over 35 of them since I started playing in 2003. I have played over 10 million hands over the years but I am still running ahead of the one royal per 650,000 hand expectation. And yes I say over 35 cause I stopped counting.....
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Nov 13th, 2008
Re:The evolution of the game... whats next?
Also left out was the development of the concept of floating as an initial response to the basic TAG or LAG style that soon became incorporated into both styles as well before the 3 bet phase began.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 4th, 2008
Re:Playing pairs is it really profitable to play all pairs?
The answer you seek is here:
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 4th, 2008
Re:The evolution of the game... whats next?
There was always more to the TAG or LAG style than just C-bets. I just used that as a style descriptor.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 4th, 2008
Re:The evolution of the game... whats next?
Online cash games have progressed dramatically as Prodigy was saying. The three betting light philosophy has destroyed the profitability of the old TAG or LAG raise and Cbet philosophy. The old TAG or LAG and Cbet philosophy had been successful in live games for many years and it still is. However, because of the speed that the game progresses online, online players are now FAR ahead on average of where the average live player is. The average live player rarely gets reraised preflop, let alone 3 bet. This is true from 1/2 to at least 10/20 in most live casinos. The average online player who ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 4th, 2008
Re:Poker Stat Strategy Domination
What you are asking for is worth tons of $$$$!! The poker tracker site has links to a good 'how to use the stats' site that is free and explains how to use the different stats in detail. This is a good start. I cover other uses of these stats in my advanced classes that I offer on a paid basis. Many other pros offer this kind of advice also. Send me a PM or email if you are interested in learning more but I would NEVER post this advice in a public forum for free!
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
May 28th, 2008
Re:2008 PocketFives Party at the WSOP
Doyles room is sponsoring the party....so why aren't their tournaments part of the P5s rankings'
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
May 25th, 2008
Re:Poll: Who will be the Next President of the US
I personally fear both Obama and Hillary because they are VERY liberal. Obama had THE most liberal voting record last year. Obama wants to mandate that health insurance be purchased without making any reforms that will make it affordable! Those who play poker for a living will be forced to pay sky high premiums for a product they very well may not need! (Attention all you young poker players!) He wants to have discussions with terrorist states without any precoditions' Absolute lunacy. The change in union work rules that Demos advocate is not even Democratic! People should be able to vote ...
Posted in: Off Topic 		WillisNYC
May 17th, 2008
Re(3): Is your bankroll a monthly figure?
If you are using your bankroll figure to determine what size games you should be playing, it should be an active figure which you update constantly. I update mine at the end of every day, but if the bankroll changes signficantly during the day, then you should update it intraday and redetermine if you should continue playing at the level dictated by your new bankroll.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Mar 26th, 2008
Re(3): Im very curious...AC Cash game question
I have asked in the 5/10 and 10/20 NL games at borgata (high limit room) and the answer is always no. (NJ law as burdan said i think.)
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Mar 19th, 2008
Re(1): Im very curious...AC Cash game question
no.....emphatically no if u ask them....I have at Borgata and Harrahs casinos.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Mar 19th, 2008
Re(2): Online(Luck) VS Live(Skill)
The rebuttal to the pure conjecture and fabrication of 'Facts' presented by Hexarai can be shown with true logic and facts such as I present below. I possess pokertracker databases with millions of hands in them. An analysis of any of those databases with the large number of trials present in them show that when I am an 80% favorite in a hand, I win 80% of the time in these large databases. When I am a 60/40 favorite, I win 60% of the time. Some of the databases show these expectations to be off by a percentage point or two, but that sir is what variance consists of and the variance will ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Mar 19th, 2008
Re(1): What are some of the Negative aspects of being a PRO?
Playing poker professionally is more than just playing poker. Pros need many life skills that would make them successful in other fields. A successful pro needs many of the same skills and determination that a small business owner needs. He needs to have the discipline to put in the necessary time to be successful without a boss looking over his shoulder. Easy when you are winning, damn difficult when on a losing streak. The pro player also needs money management skills that often EXCEED those needed for most small business owners. Variance is a powerful bankroll destroyer that everyone knows ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Feb 19th, 2008
Re(5): A simple question for high volume multi tablers
Multiple screens with no overlap is the way to go. Impossible to observe action while cascading. If you are going to high volume multi, invest in the extra monitors you need.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Feb 18th, 2008
Re(2): Cash game variance-Math question.
You need to know what your standard deviation is in order to properly answer this question. However, a quick and dirty answer would be to look at your daily statistics for your cash game in question. Over a year, what has been the biggest top to bottom swing in the value of your roll' If you have a loose aggressive style, your swings will be bigger than those players that are tight aggressive. Analyzing a years worth of stats or at least 100,000 hands, should give you a good idea of your largest top to bottom swing and a true winrate in bb/100 hands. Also, if you don't have 100,000 hands to ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Nov 9th, 2007
Re(5): Cash Game Strategy Discussion
If you are going to play 56s preflop and you hit your flush as you did, you have to be willing to make this call. IF you can't make this call, then quit playing 56s and only play Axs so you will know you have the nuts! I agree with the above analysis that you are probably beaten, but you are getting too great of odds not to make the call. Many players will bluff in this spot and against them, your best play would be a check/call or check/raise on the river. Depends on your read, but you made your hand, now you have to put your chips behind it!
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 19th, 2007
Re(2): What is a good showdown % ??
This stat varies tremendously based on the style of play that you adopt. I have heard from other players that anything over 50% means that you are not showing down enough hands on the river to effectively prevent others from bluffing you. How true this is, is something that I wish I had hard data on to back up the theory. Regardless of the theory, I have a long term (100K plus hands) bb/100 hands above 10 on bodog. My Won $ at showdown percentage is a measly 44%. So despite the low number, it is not impacting my bb/100 hands. Personally I think that any number above 55% indicates that you are ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 19th, 2007
Re(5): Problems with Nucharge
Nucharge credit card was down last week, but it worked for me today! Whee!
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Oct 1st, 2007
Re(2): The beauty of the button vs sb vs bb battle
Forget defending your blinds.....the odds dictate that this is a horrible call. The odds of hitting your set are 8 to 1 and thus you need to get at least those implied odds in order to make the call. This is because with 44, you damn sure are not continuing this hand postflop without a set. The raise was for an additional 300 chips so your implied odds need to be 2400 chips as a minimum. Both players have less than 2400 chips and there is no way you can anticipate that you will bust both of them you cannot call the preflop raise. It is just bad poker and long term you will suffer if you ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Aug 29th, 2007
Re(2): Congrats Ole_School on winning the UB 500
Impressive...Congrats dude and oh yes you are buying dinner in AC!
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Aug 20th, 2007
Re(2): New to Bodog - Is it worth the deposit/withdrawal headaches??
WU looks like its gone for good, but NUcharge looks like a reasonable new option so far. Regardless, the donks in the cash games make this site worth any serious grinders time. I have been there for years and hate how hard it is to get money off recently, but it is FAR too profitable for me to leave.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Aug 14th, 2007
Re(2): Working on an Article. "The Anatomy of a Rush"
I personally do not believe in rushes. It is poker we play, not blackjack! A 'rush' is just a good run of cards, the upside of variance. The downside is when we lose every race as opposed winning them. I have seen both sides of this coin and trying to identify and take advantage of a rush is a foolish notion in my book! Cards have no memory and what you receive in your next hand has no relation to what you received in your last. The sooner you think this way, the sooner you can move your game to a higher level. Believing in rushes is for people who believe in luck. I believe in my skill.... ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Aug 14th, 2007
Re(2): Player Transfers on Bodog?
Bodog does not allow transfers and don't try 'losing' money on the tables to someone on purpose! Many folks have had their accounts closed for doing this at Bodog. They are very serious about not allowing this type of activity at Bodog. The lack of transfers is one of my big complaints about an otherwise gold mine of a site when it comes to sick cash games to pay my rent.
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Aug 12th, 2007
Re(3): Can you be Too Analytical?
The simple answer here is KNOW THY OPPONENT! If you are involved in a low limit cash game or low buy in MTT, MOST of your opponents will not think beyond their own cards. Thus the easy, straightforward, non tricky play is best. If you are playing in a high buy in MTT against a known name from P5s top 100, then u should consider the deeper thinking play. However, I have found that it is RARE that a deep thinking play is needed unless you are playing against ELITE competition. AND I mean truly elite. 5/10 NL for instance is not elite. The straightforward play works best over 90% of the time ...
Posted in: Poker Discussion 		WillisNYC
Jul 18th, 2007