Online Poker Tournament Rankings

Hand#2 - Is probably worth a shove only if the blinds are playing a good sng strategy by tightening up their calling requirements . If the blinds don't make this adjustment , then you're better off folding .

This thread might be of interest to you . http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=9616011&an=&page=0&vc=1

50k hands is sufficient for both limit and nl . However , this depends on several variables : Your win rate/100 hands should be higher in nl as well as your variance . So one may argue that you need more hands to determine if you're a profitable player in NL but this isn't true since your sample win rate will generally be higher too . I've done similar calculations in the past , and it's about roughly the same .

First you need to determine your standard deviation . With 30 sessions you can determine this. Lets convert everything to the same units . You're earning 8 bb's/100 hands over a sample of 2000 hands . So lets say your standard deviation is 30 bb's/100 hands . This means that your sample standard deviation over a sample of 2000 hands is 30/sqrt(20) ~ 6.708 . So we can conclude with 95% confidence , or 2 standard deviations from the mean , that your true win rate lies between 8+-2*6.708 or between

We may approximate your standard deviation which would apply to a wide range of win-rates . So for a typical 18-man tourney , your s.d may be ~ 2.2 with an roi of just over 10% (very reasonable ) So if xbar is your sample roi , and we're interested in the probability that you are within 2 standard deviations from the mean , then our confidence interval becomes xbar +- 2*2.2/sqrt(n) where n is the number of sng's played . So if our roi after 100 games is 25% , then we can conclude with 95% confidence

Against many opponent's I would even be willing to re-raise here . An opponent who mini-raises often times has a wider range than a player who makes 3x raises . Moreover , you have antes in play , which makes playing aggressively all the more favorable .

Your variance will be much higher playing against this individual who will have you covered even if you double up a couple times . This doesn't mean that it's not a profitable venture for you . As long as you're making profitable decisions , then it shouldn't matter how much money he has in front of him . In fact , if he's inferior to you , then you're in a gamblers' bliss . If you can ride the wave , then you'll be fine .

What do you mean , go broke ? I hope you're not trying to play NL200 with only $200 . If you are properly bank-rolled and you lose one buy-in , then nothing should stop you from re-buying . If you're only playing with 1 buy-in , then you have bankroll management issues .

I probably lean towards folding preflop . Even if you were deepstacked , I believe calling raises with suited connectors against 3 players is marginally playable oop . Since your stack is shallow , your s.c's has lost some of that value so it's not a bad idea you fold and wait for a better spot .

Your raise pre-flop was good . On the turn , you had a good spot to try the check-raise . There is 2.5 in the turn , and you need the play to be successful at least 1/(2.5+1) ~ 28.5% which is reasonable here .