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Alright this is a $4 180-man SNG on Stars (yea big money!) We are 6 handed and there are 13 people remaining. I have a strong table image. I raise UTG and have a MP flat-caller who I know is not a great player. Because of this I now realize I put myself in a bad spot, but against a better player would this have worked? Plus, he snap called my all-in which I though should at least warrant some thought... PokerStars Game #24778551529: Tournament #139724367, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level
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I've ran into this situation before many times. This early, with so many fish, its hard to put opponents on ranges. JJ is a real tough hand OOP to play early on so I advise limping into the pot. Therefore, you probably won't get re-raised out of a pot with a strong hand. If your board texture looks good or if you spike a set, expect to get paid out. At the same time, if the board sucks you at most lose a cbet, which won't be a significant amount of your stack early. My thoughts...(plus
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Thanks for all your advice so far. As to raise sizes I usually would not raise ~3BB UTG, but I wanted value out of a strong hand. No doubt $4 SNGs are brutal and my mistake was assessing the probability he would fold, I had less FE than I thought. His min raise just sooo weak on a dry board so I put him on a whole range of cards, figuring he would fold most of the time without a strong holding. However, in light of this, the competition was so weak I don't think I need to make those moves in
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If you don't think the player is that good, or good enough to make a play light in this situation you are up against AA, KK or AK. You'll have a big enough stack to keep putting pressure on smaller stacks if you fold. It is definitely a tough decision and unfortunate timing. On the other hand if you get it in and double up, your chances of winning the tournament increase greatly.
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With his M at 12 he should try to take the pot down instead of set-mining at this point in the tournament. If he held 22-77 I understand...but not 99. Also you are correct he had the odds to set-mine, but his optimal strategy is not to set-mine.
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That's just a tough flop. With the money bubble approaching you need to get aggressive. Making the money doesn't mean much in tournaments; final tables and the top three spots are what its all about. Bad timing, but with him leading from the blinds I wouldn't think he was strong either. You made the right play.
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Let's look at the math. The EV of your hand is about .35, so about a third of the time you will win here. However, with several limpers you should take the lead and your EV of the bet probably increases to about .6. With the several limps I would have raised to about pot since your M is decent M= (8315)/(150+300+225) = 12ish. You take the lead from the blind and probably don't get called, unless UTG limper has a big hand. Then, you CB the flop to see where you're at and probably take
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Hand 1: Most likely in a coin flip so even EV at best, why risk it when you can keep stealing blinds? Hand 2: Why would you shove with your stack size relative to the blinds? Make your standard raise, you probably have best hand with A9 three-handed. If short stack shoves, call. If big stack shoves... get out and don't worry about losing 500-600 chips.
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I don't like risking 50% of my stack with speculative cards in this spot. TT is a decent hand, but here is it most likely behind or barely ahead. -EV play if you flat call or shove, however if you flat call the re-raise you will most likely be in a tough spot on the flop. So...I'd fold, wait for a better spot and not lose a big pot with TT.
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Seat 3 has been very loose and aggressive. I've seen him call many raises pre-flop and re-raise post-flop frequently. It is early on in the tournament with blinds at 25/50 and I have around 70 BB. My image is tight, I haven't played many pots and have showed down solid holdings. Seat 1: Twisler23(3879 in chips) Seat 2: Beefarm (4821 in chips) Seat 3: %Outs&Odds% (7680 in chips) Seat 4: rioruss (3330 in chips) Seat 5: teisha111 (2835 in chips) Seat 6: Stef Schouw (3776 in chips) Seat 7
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