Online Poker Tournament Rankings

100% depends on the limper. If he never/rarely has a monster, easy shove. If he always/usually has a monster, easy fold.

[quote user="jtown1010"] Thanks for the heads up! [/quote]

[quote user="flipbsj"] How can you expect 7 to 1 odds on this? So basically you've already hit your downswing on this, playing 50-60 of these, so basically 60% of the time, after already playing this many, you want 7 to 1 that you will win one? haha.. Obviously you are favored to win one in these two weeks. For whoever is saying that you only have a 28% chance to win one is forgetting that you have already played 60 so your variance is heading on the upswing... [/quote] Yea thhis is

[quote user="byoonz"][quote user="flipbsj"] How can you expect 7 to 1 odds on this? So basically you've already hit your downswing on this, playing 50-60 of these, so basically 60% of the time, after already playing this many, you want 7 to 1 that you will win one? haha.. Obviously you are favored to win one in these two weeks. For whoever is saying that you only have a 28% chance to win one is forgetting that you have already played 60 so your variance is heading on the upswing

[quote user="BgsaPnaples"] equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 29.027% 28.53% 00.50% 1829164668 31740324.00 { 42o } Hand 1: 70.973% 70.48% 00.50% 4518220860 31740324.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, A2o+, KJo+, QJo } [2550] * [.67] + [39772] * ([.33] *[.29]) - [18161] * ([.33] * [.71]) = [Net cEV profit of the play] (1708.5 + 39772) * (.09) - (18161) * (.23) = [Net cEV profit of the play] 3733.245 - 4177.03 = -443.8 [/quote] Huh?? Almost everything in this post is wrong. The shove is actually

So the question the OP asks comes down to the BBs calling range. The question is what does the avg player call you with when you shove 16bbs from sb. OP is not real specific about the buyin how deep etc, but we could surmise we are ITM, but perhaps not that close to FT yet. In any case I am not a big believer in ICM anyways, so if we just go for chip EV, this becomes unprofitable if he is callling you wider than pokerstove 25.2% using the slider. (66+A2s+K6s+Q8s+J8s+T8sA7o+K9o+Qto+JTo) so if you

[quote user="BgsaPnaples"] can u show me where i went wrong please. [/quote] I did not redo the simplification, (and do not do the simplification in general, but do this kind of thing with formulas in spreadsheets where you change only the inputs) but as previously pointed out u need lose the () in the second line, and none are necessary in the first line, which prolly would have avoided the confusion in the second. I also find it clearer to use + in the equation, with only the chips lost

RayRoss87: If the fields were assumed to be all equal in skill and he played 28 of them all with 100 entires. The odds of him playing all 28 and not winning any of them would be .99^28 which is .755. Which means in lamen's terms, 75% of the time he played a sample size of 28 tournaments he would not win any of them. The above is correct. The below is incorrect. Please see the above for the correct way. Thank You. Much simplier way to figure this out. Assuming equal skill and average field size

[quote user="mattg1983"] hahhahahahha, no way I just read that. He is saying your expectation would be to win one.... [/quote] Sorry Matt, but funnygut is correct, this is the logical extension of sakenme's flawed math, as is the 1000% example.

[quote user="doomed222"] step 4 ticket-------->sunday million--------->hookers and blow ldo [/quote]