I’m not going to pretend to know anything about NASCAR or making left turns at 150 MPH, but I do know a thing or two about turning things into math problems, and that has somehow lead me to making money at NASCAR DFS over a very small sample size. I also know that there is going to be a lot of overlay tonight on DraftKings so go get you some.

Here’s a look at the data I have accumulated for this race and how I have translated that into fantasy points:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9u-gdBZssMEpHeylWo1IKvts3FNptrPv48XL3U5-ps/edit?usp=sharing

I still have not wrapped my head around how to predict fastest laps or laps led. I can get a percentage of laps led from the loop data and apply that to average number of laps run green here, but then how do I account for pole position, that individual race car on this individual weekend, or variance? I would love to hear your thoughts on how we might quantify these point categories.

We can predict with reasonable accuracy average finishing position from track history, driver rating, and history at corollary tracks (track type). These projections are very general to account for the variance that is crashes and engines blowing up, but they give us a good baseline for projecting fantasy points. Then we can assume good drivers in fast cars will get the fastest laps, and we can assume that guys who start in the front of the pack will have the greatest opportunity at laps led.

Most interesting to me is how to handle popular plays in GPPs. I think NASCAR is much like MLB in the sense that variance is extreme. Anybody can score you negative points in NASCAR, and it seems that wrecks and car problems are pretty equal opportunity in choosing whom to strike. Therefore if we can determine which driver will be popular then we should probably fade that driver straight up from a game theory perspective and hope they smash into a wall.

This week I think that driver is Kyle Busch. All the touts are touting him and he has been red hot lately. Making things sweeter for us faders, Kyle qualified 10th and had problems in practice with his primary car, is thus taking his backup car into Sunday. Denny Hamlin should be highly owned at 9.5k and for good reason. He has the 2nd best driving rating here. He has the 3rd highest % of laps led here. People are talking about him. There are many options in the lower tier, I think Greg Biffle may be the most popular down there. He is one of my highest owned drivers, I think his spot is too good to fade. He practiced 1st and 2nd and then had a problem in qualifying dropping him back in the pack. This provides a nice floor as he should accumulate points from moving up the pack, can still bank fastest laps, and has a chance to win the race still.

Have fun, I’ve enjoyed sweating NASCAR while having horses in the race. I recommend wearing a wife beater and drinking cheap beer while watching the race from a lawn chair.

Play fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings by clicking here!

Devo