My last article was about judging the quality of your decisions. In a poker hand, the quality of a decision is determined by the best opportunity to win the pot, rather than any specific outcome from a single sample. This holds true for tournament strategy, as well as for single pots. For guidance, we turn again to the sports world, to the World #1 in both golf and serial philandering, Tiger Woods.

In an interview after winning the 2006 PGA Championships, Woods was asked about maintaining his drive to win. He responded:

“I just thoroughly enjoy coming down the stretch on the back nine with a chance to win [a tournament]. That’s why I practice as hard as I do and what I live for. That, to me, is the ultimate rush in our sport is on that back nine on Sunday with a chance to win.”

Every tournament we enter – golf, poker, or tiddlywinks – is for one reason: to win. The game itself is fun, and the competition is exciting. But nothing matches the adrenaline of being the last man standing, and the money to go with it. We play to get to the Final Table. We must do whatever gives us the best chance to get there.

“Whatever gives us the best chance,” however, varies for each player. How do you like to play? What works for you? What may be the best decision for one specific hand may not align with your tournament goal. This example provides some food-for-thought along those lines:

It’s the first hand of a tournament. A player limps. You raise from the cutoff to 3x the BB with pocket tens. The button shoves for 100 BB, and the blinds and limper fold. Using your GameTheory-brand X-ray specs, you see your opponent has A-K suited. Do you call?

As a standalone hand, as in a cash game, the answer is undoubtedly “yes.” You are a slight favorite to win, and with the little bit of extra equity in the pot, the mathematically correct play is to call.

But we must also consider how the call-or-fold decision provides the best chance to win the entire tournament, not just this hand. 49% of the time, you’re out of the tournament. When the tens hold, our tournament finish must provide twice the return, on average. Do you improve our average finish enough when you double up on the first hand to make it worth the gamble?

If you’re a player who is strongest with a big stack, and knows when to protect it or bludgeon opponents with it, then play the 10-10 v. A-K flip. Some players are great at riding the big stack deep into a tournament.

Others, however, spew the big stack away by being overly reckless or nit it away because they’re scared to lose. If you make more mistakes on the big stack than you do below-average, then you will not gain enough return to make up for the times when you’re eliminated on this first hand. The +cEV decision is not always +$EV.

If you’re not sure what you should be doing, track your tournaments for awhile. Chart your good finishes when you double up early, versus those when you grind the short-stack. Expose your own personal truth…is it worth gambling early, for you?

Early results are only one of several key indicators of where you need to be to have the best chance to win the tournament. I know, from my own experience, I have a better chance to make a deep run if I am above-average when the money bubble bursts. At that point, the short-stack nits will choose to gamble. I am in a position to call a bit lighter, or take some risks to keep accumulating in pace with the blinds, without significantly hurting my stack. I tend to panic if I’m below-average while the last few tables wind down, even if the tournament structure means I’m not particularly short from an “M” perspective.

As such, I’m less interested in my “tournament life” in the 2nd and 3rd hours of online tournaments than most players. With my game, the difference between entering the bubble with 8 BB and 20 BB is not nearly as great as the difference between 20 BB and 40 BB. My “tournament life” only has value if I can cash it in for serious money at the end. I must make plays and take risks to get in my comfort zone, and stay there ahead of the blinds, rather than just hanging on and hoping I catch a couple monsters.

The difference between not cashing and min-cashing is irrelevant in comparison to one huge score. Players who worry about how often they get in the money are focused on the wrong thing, and costing themselves success. ITM% is the worst statistic in tournament poker, and if you know or care what yours is, it’s a leak in your game.

Obviously, as you get to the final two or three tables, having the chip lead would be preferable. But prior confidence surviving to the final table as a short stack, and thriving when you get there, is important. If ADHD or anxiety attacks kick in, and you make rash decisions because you have less than 20 BB, then be more willing to gamble in the 30-40 BB range to avoid that circumstance. If you can short stack-ninja with the best of them, follow that path instead.

You should do whatever works for you.

Playing short-handed at a final table for lots of money is exciting, nerve-wracking and difficult in the best of circumstances. Being comfortable along the journey makes the end result easier to manage. Keeping your head on straight during poker’s Back Nine, while all around you are losing theirs, will make the journey’s end much sweeter.