TPC Boston
Norton, Massachusetts
Par 71, 7,242 yards.
5500 ft2 greens of Bentgrass at 11.5’
57 bunkers and 3 hazards

This tournament starts on Friday, not Thursday.

99 players in the field, Sergio Garcia is out. He’s ranked 31st in the FedExCup points assuring himself a spot at the BMW Championship next week, but he’ll have to do some work there because only the top 30 make the TOUR Championship in 3 weeks. Everybody gets week one of NFL off. The top 70 players qualify for the BMW Championship next week

Top 70 and ties make the cut this weekend.

They’ve played here every year since the course was opened in 2003, but the course was completely remodeled in 2007, so only consider results from then onward, it seems to me that they played on current course in 2007 but I am unsure. Course designer Gil Hanse shrunk the green and tightened the approach on 18 in 2011, scoring didn’t change noticeably.

2014 – Kirk -15, 4, 14
2013 – Stenson -22, E, 10
2012 – McIlroy -20, 3, 12
2011 – Simpson over Reavie -15, 2, 7
2010 – C. Hoffman -22, E, 9
2009 – Stricker -17, E, 12
2008 – Vijay -22, -2, 9
2007 – Mickelson -16, 2, 12

7 year average win/cut/worst: -19, 1, 10.43

PHIL MICKELSON: “This is one of my favorite courses we play on TOUR. I think it’s one of the best courses we play on TOUR. It’s got a lot of character and definition, but more than that it’s got a great mixture of holes, from long par-5s to reachable par-5s to drivable par-4s to really long par-4s, the fescue grass, the rough. It’s just a wonderful way to play the game where you have such a great mixture of every club in your bag. You have birdie opportunities, you have tough pars as opposed to some courses nowadays where it’s just hard, hard, hard. Hard is hard, but it’s not great, it’s not fun. But this golf course is a great golf course, and it’s a fun golf course to play.”

Neither driving distance or accuracy stand out this week, but total driving as a whole jumps off the page. Strokes Gained Tee to Green is paramount once again. SG:T2G is the only stat that consistently correlates with success, all the rest of them are course dependent. Since 2008, 26 players have finished T3 or better here. Only 9 of them have been outside of the top 40 in SG:T2G that season. Putting seems not so important this week.. Sandies, proximity, and scrambling are all slightly more important than either driving stat. Par 4 and 5 scoring are important, and it looks like Par5 scoring is more important. Like SG:T2G, Par5 scoring gives us just 9 guys who finished outside the top 40.

Timothy Frank (@FantasyGolfMan) publishes nice sheets, free to the public. Thank you Timothy.

Stat Guide

Form Guide

Jason Day is on Fire. He’s got pretty good course history here too.

Weather

Hourly Chart

Homefield Labs

Locals

Golfers don’t live in New England

Course Horses

Golf Stats’ TPC Boston Performance Chart

John Senden
Jason Dufner
Jason Day
Chris Kirk
Jim Furyk
Rory
Dustin Johnson

Gophers

Jason Day 11.8k– 1, 1, 12, 1, 4, 9 and cut last 3 months. 7, 13, 51, 3, 2, 19, 50 here. His stats line up for the course. He will be highly owned. Fade at your own risk.

[1:20:26 PM] chris.viox: only reason to fade day is game theory
[1:21:26 PM] Bryan Devonshire: I disagree; at least on my end I have McIlroy and Spieth projected to score more points. Tack on Day’s ownership and easy fade imo.
[1:21:48 PM] Bryan Devonshire: But that means 3 reasons to fade him
[1:21:59 PM] Bryan Devonshire: Other than that he’s really good at golf and in the fucking zone.
[1:22:00 PM] chris.viox: they are only marginally higher on mine and day is hot with great course history while rory is rusty
[1:22:42 PM] chris.viox: at the same time i may fade him also due to proj ownership
[1:22:55 PM] Bryan Devonshire: Are streaks real in golf?
[1:23:01 PM] Bryan Devonshire: Or any sport?
[1:23:10 PM] chris.viox: to a degree yes
[1:23:37 PM] chris.viox: guys get in the zone (ie confidence and focus are higher than normal)
[1:24:15 PM] Bryan Devonshire: Why do streaks go away? If being in the zone lead to more wins which lead to more confidence which leads to more wins… season ends? Where does the zone go?
[1:24:31 PM] chris.viox: over confidence
[1:24:40 PM] Bryan Devonshire: Ahh like the Romans.
[1:24:40 PM] chris.viox: bad luck turning into lower confidence
[1:24:46 PM] chris.viox: 2 reasons
[1:24:59 PM] chris.viox: outside factors in your life distracting you
[1:25:32 PM] chris.viox: just like when a hitter cant buy a hit for a week
[1:25:46 PM] chris.viox: then a blooper finds it’s way in and they are back

Jordan Spieth 11.3k – Jordan set a record this summer for lowest cumulative score in all four majors, his -54 edging Tiger by a stroke. He missed the cut last week and lost his number 1 spot in the world rankings to Rory and FedExCup spot to Jason Day. Perhaps a little extra motivation? Cut, 2, 10, 4, 1, 1, 3 this summer. 29th and 4th at TPC Boston. With Day making people money lately everybody’s forgot about Spieth. I expect him to be under owned.

Rory McIlroy 11.2k– 17th and 9th the two times Rory has played since rolling his ankle in a game of footy celebrating not having to worry about the puritan American pricks anymore on July 4th. He’s had 3 weeks to rest since his last time out and looked awfully spry jogging up hills on his ankle then. I like him. I wonder about his ownership, I think it should be about 20% but I could see being surprised either way.

Dustin Johnson 10.8k– I’m not gonna play him, I think Spieth and Rory are much better plays for not much more.

Henrik Stenson 10.5k – I like Stenson, more than DJ, but I’m still not sure if the discount is worth fading Rory or Spieth. They’re elite golfers, Henrik is merely one of the best of the best in the world. With nice course history, 26th and a win here. 2, 25, 6, 40, 2, 27, 13 this summer. Uggh he looks good… maybe those few events where he played sick a few months ago are holding down my ranking of him?

Justin Rose 10.2k– Fading due to the next guy and his course history, 16, cut, 68, cut, 54, and cut on current course.

Bubba Watson 9.8k – 5th in SG:T2G. 8th in Par5 scoring. 25th in Total Driving. Course history a bit concerning, 29, 67, cut, 16, 37, 32, and 44 here. Nice form though, 3, 21, 2, 2, cut, 13, 1.

Zach Johnson 9.3k – I had a lot of him last week and that was nice, this course requires more length than he has though, I’d rather have a handful of cheaper guys.

Jim Furyk 9.0k– ZJ pivot numero uno. I don’t like him as much though as:

Rickie Fowler 8.9 – No not Rickie. He was the only expensive guy I didn’t like last week and he missed the cut. I don’t want him this week either.

Hideki Matsuyama 8.8k– Bingo. 15th in TD, 43rd in GIR, 3rd in SG:T2G, 15th in Par4 Scoring, and 13th in Par5. 57th here last year might keep some away, or his shaky form; 13, cut, 37, 37, 18, 18, 5.

Brooks Koepka 8.7k – This guy will keep ownership off all his neighbors. Last week he was too cheap at 9.7k, put up a bad performance on a constricting course. This course has 6 par 4s longer than 450 yards to go with it’s 1670 yards on 3 Par5s which will let Koepka open up. 44th in TD, 38 GIR, 32 SG:T2G, 25 SGP, 19 and 11 in Par4/5 scoring.

Oosthuizen 8.6k – No.

Kuchar 8.5k– I like him more than Furyk but not as much as Koepka or Hideki. Lot of experience here without much excitement; 29, 4, 35, 25, 11, 15, and cut here. 39, 7, 25, 7, 58, 2, 12, and 26 recent form.

Snedeker 8.4k – 94th in TD, 120 in GIR, 76th in SG:T2G… his strength is putting and putting isn’t important to me this week. I’m off him.

Casey 8.3k– 25th and cut here a long time ago (10 and 8). 39, 3, 30, 17, 74, 37, 2, 39. Not sure how I feel about him yet. I’m intrigued tho.

Mickelson 8.2k – It seems like this guy has a give a damn switch, and he’s earned it after a long career of success. His stats suffer because of it, but he’s still really good at golf when he wants to be. 45, 41, 4, 10, 25, 27, 73, and 1 here in 2007.

Simpson 8.1k – I’d rather have Justin Thomas but he’s not a bad play.

Streb 8k – Same as Webb.

Justin Thomas 7.9k– He went under owned last week and gave us a 16th place. He looks great again this week and should go under owned again with all these other shiny objects around him.

Ryan Palmer 7.8k– I like him more than Webb and Streb, think he might have won some ownership last week with his 6th place finish immediately following the sudden passing of his father. Still prefer JT.

Luke Donald 7.8k – No

Henley 7.8k– No

Reed 7.8k – Maybe, doubt it.

Haas 7.7k– Better than the rest of these guys, but Palmer is way better.

Finau 7.7k – Is getting a lot of attention again this week. He has been doing some good things lately and working hard on tour this season teeing it up at 29 events. 16, 10, 39, 22, cut, 13, 25, 14, and 8 makes pretty good recent form. 90th in TD, 49 GIR, 33 SG:T2G, 22 in Par4 and 37 in Par5 will have a lot of people drawn to him. I fear he will get in trouble here though – 184th in driving accuracy, 163 in sandies, 151 in proximity, and 166th in scrambling. GPP only, but his ownership will be higher than it should be for me, so I fade him.

Dufner 7.6k – I’d rather have Finau, but Duf should be low owned this week and isn’t a bad play. Stats look better since Tiger started banging his ex wife.

Horschel 7.6k – I like him as a Finau pivot. I actually have Horschel projected to score a quarter point more than Finau.

Lee 7.6k – He’s been in good form and popular, I still am off him. 133rd in TD, 100th in GIR, 93rd in SG:T2G, 72 and 55 in Par4/5 scoring.

Bradley 7.6k – He looks nice. Chronically underowned. 5th in TD, 52 in GIR, 73 in SG:T2G, 53 and 43 in Par4/5 scoring.

Lingmerth 7.5k – Nope

Guys I Like Under 7.5k

Jimmy Walker 7.4k – Uggggghhhh maybe I won’t have him. His form is soooo cold, 69, cut, 53, 21, 30, 82, and 58. Course history meh too; 9, cut, 51, 37, cut. Gaaahhh he looks so good on paper but has hosed me this summer. Still though, you can get an extremely under owned golfer ranked 14th in the world and priced 31st this week.

Will Wilcox 6.8k – Made me feel like a genius when he was in first place and only owned 9% for 7.2k last week. Then he went double, bogey, bogey, bogey, bogey, par, par to fall off the leaderboard and miss the cut by one stroke. He was sweet enough to apologize to all 9% of us on DraftKings, but I secretely thank him because now he is cheaper and will be less owned. I had him in 90% of my lineups last week, might be all in on him this week.

Shawn Stefani 6.7k – Was way too cheap last week and went under owned at 6.1k, gave us a nice 39th. More expensive but still a good play this week.

A handful of other guys to consider:

Jason Bohn 7.3k
Kevin Kisner 7.3k
Harris english 7.2k
Charley Hoffman 7.1k – CHARLEY HOFFMAN: … you obviously feel good going back to a course you’ve played well on in the past, and what they’ve done in the redesign at TPC Boston is unbelievable from the first year I played until now. It’s really transformed, and it’s one of my favorite golf courses on TOUR for sure.
Pat Perez 6.8k
Ben Martin 6.8k