DFS College Football Preview for September 5, 2015
Hello all, welcome back for part two of this week’s DFS college football preview, the 9/5/15 slate. First, let’s take a quick look back at last night’s games. Sloppy football seemed to be the overall theme for opening night. A lot of turnovers led to a lot of unders hitting, bringing point totals down for most of players out there.
Is that attributed to playing on Thursday night? I wouldn’t think that would be the case since it is opening week. Perhaps it’s the continuing theme of less hitting in camp and the end of two a days? It’s something to keep an eye on in the early weeks of the season.
There are 19 games scheduled for the DraftKings 9-5-15 early slate and many of these games will not have lines in Vegas. This is due to the FBS teams playing FCS teams, basically an easy win on the schedule that allows a team to gain some confidence. Sometimes that can backfire, noted in 2013 when Kansas State lost to North Dakota State to open the season. However, a normal FBS vs FCS game will usually result in a lopsided win for the FBS team.
In the games where the Vegas lines makers have set, they’re expecting Tennessee to put up some points against MAC foe Bowling Green. A lot of talking heads are picking Tennessee as the SEC East dark horse, but I’m not completely sold on them just yet. With that said, Joshua Dobbs ($9,600) is returning at QB after shedding a redshirt midway through last season to average 29.3 FPPs a game.
Joining Dobbs in the backfield is RB Jalen Hurd ($6,900), who is a receiving threat as well as the leading returning rusher for the Vols.
Bowling Green playing from behind gives us a few attractive players in QB Matt Johnson ($6,500), who is returning from an injury that cost him most of 2014. His go to guy will likely be WR Roger Lewis ($5,700) who led the Falcons in all receiving categories last year.
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa has the closest spread at 6.5 with the second highest o/u at 67.5. Tulsa ran a very balanced offense in 2014, almost exactly 50/50 run/pass plays per game. The Golden Hurricanes also return all of their leading playmakers from a year ago with Keevan Lucas WR ($7,800) being the most lethal.
Even though we expect Tulsa to lead a majority of this game, the running doesn’t appear to be the play here, with Zack Langer ($4,500) and James Flanders ($3,500) splitting reps at 2/1 and only averaging 4.1 and 4.5 yards per carry.
Florida Atlantic has an exciting player at QB in Jaquez Johnson ($6,200), who is a dual threat, evidenced by his 513 rushing yards and 7 TDs (lead team) last year. Who replaces WR Lucky Whitehead as his go to guy is the question. Jenson Stoshak ($4,400) looks to be the favorite, but there are others who could emerge which could be some decent cheap GPP gambles.
The most intriguing game to me is Louisville @ Auburn. With Bobby Petrino and Gus Malzahn running the offenses, how is the over/under only set at 57? I get Auburn has to replace starting QB Nick Marshall, but Jeremy Johnson ($7,000) looked amazing last year when filling in for a suspended Marshall. With Johnson at QB, I think Malzhan may shift from a run-dominated spread offense to a more balanced approach.
D’Haquille Williams ($5,800) seems like the logical choice to be the go to guy, but it should be noted he has had discipline issues in the past. The big question is if Auburn sticks to a run dominated offense, who gets a majority of the carries, the Tre Mason, Cameron Artis-Payne carries?
It sounds like they named Roc Thomas ($4,300) the starter for the opener, but will he get the huge chunk of carries his predecessors received? Or is it possible they go with more of a running back by committee until one breaks away from the rest? According to Louisville’s Rivals site, Petrino has yet to make a decision on a starting QB, though most seem to think he will go with Reggie Bonnafon ($5,400). Bonnafon played average at best, but was a factor around of the goal line last year, (5 rushing TDs) while splitting time with Will Gardner and Kyle Bolin.
Brandon Radcliff ($5,300) returns as the leading rusher who looks to receive a bulk of the carries without Michael Dyer and Dominique Brown to share the load with. The guy I like the most is WR James Quick ($4,400), who is poised for a breakout junior year as he takes over WR1 from DeVante Parker, who is now in the NFL. Auburn will likely have a good game plan on defense with Will Muschamp returning as defensive coordinator.
Other Plays and Fades
Georgia RB Nick Chubb ($10,200), the most expensive RB this week, will look to kick off his Heisman campaign the way he finished last year. The game could be a blowout, which could cause some concern, but I think Chubb could run for 200 and 3 TDs in the first half.
Arkansas RB Alex Collins ($9,800): With Jonathan Williams out with a serious injury, Arkansas’ run heavy offense will pound it out with Collins. Arkansas returns a veteran line and should pound UTEP into submission early and often with little reason to throw.
Mizzou RB Russell Hansbrough ($7,200): The senior will be the go-to guy in Mizzou’s offense early, as QB Maty Mauk (one of my major fades) continued to have consistency issues throughout fall camp, below 60% completion percentage. Mizzou should be up early and they want to get Hansbrough more reps this year.
UCLA WR Jordan Payton ($4,700): With Frosh QB Josh Rosen winning the starting job, I see Jordan Payton as a steal at this price. The leading returning receiver is a senior leader and should be who Rosen looks to a lot early on.
Washington State QB Luke Falk ($9,600): Named the starter in a very pass-happy offense where Mike Leach is not afraid to run up the score. Last year Washington State threw for over 5,700 yards. Trying to find his go-to receiver will be difficult because they spread it everywhere. It’s kind of fun to look at their receiving stats if you get a chance, as six guys caught over 40 balls each.
There are a few decent games on opening Saturday, but a lot of cupcake games for the FBS schools. The key is to find the coach’s that hold back and the ones who leave the starters in to pad video game like stats. Good luck, good luck everybody on Game Day.
