Hey y’all, this is written by my friend Ryan Tepen. I used to back him in poker. He used to play football. He’s our College Football expert, and he does a fine job introducing himself.

Hello all you daily fantasy grinders out there, I’m Ryan Tepen, a former Division One third string long snapper at the University of Missouri. After my playing days were over, I continued to work with Mizzou as a Student Assistant Coach for then Offensive Coordinator and Offensive Line Coach Dave Christensen. I also worked as a Strength and Conditioning Coach under Coach Pat Ivey. Following my time at Mizzou, I became a professional poker player with a short stint as a Futures and Options Commodities Broker. As I transition to a Daily Fantasy Sports grinder, I plan to use technical and fundamental analysis to help guide my decision making.

Vegas Spreads and Game Thoughts

The first slate of games on DraftKings is nine matchups set for 9/3/15. The Vegas spreads range from 2.5 points to 31 points with the over/unders ranging from 46 to 64 points per vegasinsider.com.

Game Spread Over/Under
TCU @ Minnesota -16 58
North Carolina @ South Carolina -3 64
Texas San Antonio @ Arizona -31 60
Western Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -2.5 62
Oklahoma State @ Central Michigan -24 58.5
Ohio @ Idaho -7 58.5
Michigan @ Utah -5 46
Florida International @ Central Florida -14 46
Duke @ Tulane -7.5 51

We should regularly look to the Vegas bookmakers to start our search for the games with the most value. What I’m seeing here is some exciting matchups, in particular the UNC @ South Carolina game. Will the Ol’ Ball Coach come back strong after a disappointing 2014 campaign? Can do it all QB Marquise Williams improve more after an impressive Junior year in 2014 where he threw for 3,000 plus yards with 29 TDs while rushing for almost 800 and 13 TDs?

The high point total with the close spread in Western Kentucky/Vandy also looks attractive, though I will try and stay away from Vandy, as Coach Mason has nowhere near as consistent team as when Coach Franklin ran the Commodores.

A couple games to shy away from will be the Michigan/Utah game and the Okla St/Central Michigan game. Michigan/Utah will be a defensive battle in my opinion, this combined with Harbaugh playing mind games with the depth chart makes me want to forget about this one completely, even though I’m a fan of Travis Wilson and Devontae Booker. Oklahoma State will be an exciting team to watch this year, but they are so deep and have a great offense that spreads the ball all around under Coach Gundy. WRs Sheperd and Washington could get a lot targets early, but are there enough balls to go around?

A game you love/hate isTCU @ Minnesota. Minnesota will try and do everything they can to slow the game down, which can get very annoying, but will they be able to slow down the Frogs offense? If Minnesota has to play from behind, then maybe we see a few more plays in this one. Some teams let off of the gas when they get ahead or even go to the reserves, but that has rarely been the case under TCU’s Coach Patterson. So this could be a spot where you see TCU to push Boykin early for the Heisman Trophy, as he is one of the preseason favorites.

Arizona almost lost last year in San Antonio, in one of their lower scoring games of the year. Does Coach Rich Rodriguez put the pedal to the metal? This sound bite would lead one to believe we will see a lot of offense this year from Arizona vs. San Antonio:

Rich Rodriguez on leading the country in offensive snaps

Plays and Fades

One of the more popular plays I’m seeing is Duke’s RB Shaquille Powell, who averaged 10.4 FPPG last year, while splitting time as the lead back in a running back by committee approach. Usually that is a big red flag when it comes to fantasy, but in week one his appeal is greater because he is the only healthy RB on Duke’s depth chart. With Duke being 7.5 point favorites over Tulane, we can expect him to get a heavy workload, and priced at 4.7k he is quite a steal in week one.

South Carolina’sPharoh Cooper will be the focal point of Spurrier’s offense, getting a lot of touches for WR. They’ll target him short and long, run him on sweeps and reverses, and even allow him to throw the ball, (5-8 with 2 TDs in 2014). While he is the most expensive receiver in this expected high scoring matchup vs. North Carolina, I think the juice will be worth the squeeze.

Western Kentucky is returning a lot of starters from a high powered offense in 2014. Senior QB Brandon Doughty runs the show, with 4800 yards and 49 TDs a year ago, and returns his top target Jared Dangerfield at WR, but Dangerfield is questionable Thursday. Finding a way to stack a combo of Doughty/Dangerfield would be nasty, but this team spreads it around a lot, so even if you cannot afford Dangerfield ($5900), there are some cheaper options at WR such as Taylor ($4800), Grant ($3700) and Norris ($3300), who will all get boosts is Dangerfield is out. One note about this stack is that returning RB Leon Allen($9200) is the most expensive RB out there. Allen’s backup Wales is out. It will be very difficult to get both Doughty and Allen on the same roster, but Allen is very valuable to the Hilltoppers. Last year he had 1500 rushing yards with 13 TDs, but also had 51 receptions for 476 yards and 3 more TDs. Against an inconsistent Vanderbilt team, I love any stacked combo you can come up with for Western Kentucky.

North Carolina’s Marquise Williams has a lot of value being the leading rusher for the Tar Heels as a QB, and a pretty good QB at that. He returns his favorite target from a year ago inRyan Switzer who is a modest ($4900).

Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez wants to have the most offensive plays this year, combined with a semi revenge game against a weaker UTSA team could be a perfect storm for QBAnu Solomon($9200) and WR Cayleb Jones($6100). But you have to wonder how much RBNick Wilson ($9000) will be a factor when/if Arizona gets up big.

I’m fading Oklahoma State. QB Mason Rudolph looks great, but it sounds like Gundy has some red zone packages with senior QBJ.W. Walsh. Gundy also wants to split the carries between RBs Carson and Childs. At WR there’s just too much depth and not enough balls to go around in my opinion. I’m also fading Michigan as we really have no idea who Harbaugh will be going with until kickoff.

Later this week we will be focusing on the big Saturday slate. Until then, may your sleepers score in bunches and your punts be perfect coffin corners. I’m headed to the bar, Tepen69….out!