For those of you who follow the NBA, the annual off-season moves create major changes in teams (probably more so than in any other sport). With that in mind and the NBA season beginning tomorrow, I wanted to throw out some guys I believe will substantially over- and under-perform last year’s numbers.

Pops

David Lee – He took a backup role to Draymond Green’s surprising breakout performance last year. This former All-Star has never lacked offensive weapons and now has a chance to start again in Boston. He does have a fair amount of competition with Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger behind him. If he is able to secure the starting job/minutes, he has decent potential.

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Nicolas Batum – After playing second fiddle to LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard the last couple years, he now finds himself on a marginal Charlotte team. In addition, last year he was dealing with nagging injuries for most of the year. He always has been able to fill up the box score in multiple categories and now he is being looked at far more often on the offensive side of the court (one of my biggest pops).

Nikola Mirotic – Last year, he was mainly relegated to a reserve role on a more defensive-minded Chicago team. However, whenever he received big minutes, he was usually a must-own. This year, he should be the starting PF for Chicago as Gasol moves to C and Noah goes to the bench. He will also slide over to the SF at times, which can only help secure more minutes. Under new head coach Fred Hoiberg, Chicago is reportedly playing a more offensive-friendly game. All of these factors make Mirotic primed for a big year.

Paul George (and the whole Indiana offense) – This really isn’t as much a pop as a premier player getting back to health. Everyone remembers his gruesome injury preparing for the Olympics. Now nearly one-and-a-half years later, he seems to be finally back. Indiana plans on playing him as a stretch 4 (aka small-ish PF). This team also is trashing their plodding style of the last few years and going up tempo. As a result, most of the returning Indiana players should see an increase in production.

Anthony Davis – How can he be a pop when he was already a top-five fantasy player? Well, he was only 21, his coach under-used him for at least half the year, and he dealt with some injuries. Now, he is a year older, the offense is running through him substantially more, and hopefully he will avoid the injury bug. The only question is will he be the clear #1 fantasy option?

Damian Lillard/C.J. McCollum – Gone from Portland’s starting five are LaMarcus Aldrige, Robin Lopez, Nicolas Batum, and Wesley Matthews. The replacements are McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, and Mason Plumlee. Portland went from title contender to eh. In the pre-season, Lillard and McCollum have become essentially a two-man show. Look for big bumps to these guys.

Washington Players (primarily Bradley Beal and Marcin Gortat) – Washington will be playing a more up-tempo game this year featuring more three-point attempts and more pick and rolls. Already in the pre-season, their pace is 12% faster. Beal loves the three and Gortat will be the main beneficiary of pick and rolls.

Drops

LaMarcus Aldridge– While his game is still at its peak, the move to San Antonio will definitely hurt his fantasy production. Coach Pop often limits his starters’ minutes during the regular season, as he makes sure they are in peak form for the playoffs. I still expect a lot of the offense to run through him, but Kawhi Leonard is a budding superstar that will also have his number called often.

Tim Duncan – Old-man Timmy is still a force on the court when he gets minutes, which is shocking at his age. However, with the addition of Aldridge, I expect Pop to rest him even more and see less of the low-post looks. One of the greatest of all-time will not be worth a fantasy look very often this year.

Joakim Noah – Given the aforementioned commentary on Mirotic, it is fairly obvious Noah’s fantasy production will take a major hit this year, as long as he is coming off the bench despite Chicago’s better offensive system.

I find the start of the NBA season difficult until you get to see how everyone’s new roles are defined. As a result, I will be playing smaller for a week or two. This would be my advice for you until you become comfortable. Good luck!

Major injuries of note to start the season

Kyrie Irving – Cle, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Cha, Chandler Parsons – Dal (should be back very soon), Jusuf Nurkic – Den, Jabari Parker – Mil, Tyreke Evans – Nor, Tony Wroten – Phi, Robert Covington – Phi