BMW Championship
Conway Farms Golf Club
Lake Forest, IL
Par 71, 7,198 yards
Greens are 5k ft2 on average at 12′ on the stimpmeter
88 bunkers, 5 hazards.
Twitter: @bmwchamps

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70 runners in the field, there is no cut.

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Third leg of the playoffs. After this event, the top 30 in FedEx Cup points advance to the Coca-Cola Championships next week.

Conway Farms opened on August 3, 1991. The Tom Fazio course is designed like a Scottish links course. They played the 2013 BMW Championship here, every other marquis event hasn’t been that big of a deal, so that tournament in 2013 is our only source of course history data. They will play again here in 2017, so we get two years then at least.

Jim Furyk (pictured) holds the course record here with 59 and ZJ won here in 2013. If the 7,200-yard par 71 didn’t make you think this was a bunter’s course, maybe those two names on top do? They were plagued by rain and wind in 2013 and didn’t finish until Monday.

We want to be looking for accurate drivers who hit greens in regulation (ball striking). Proximity is important and you can specialize by targeting the proximity from 100 to 150 yards, as that is the range that most of their approach shots will be coming from.

Strokes gained putting may be more important than strokes gained tee to green, as it was more important in 2013. Scrambling looks important with the narrow fairways and small greens. Par 3 scoring comes up higher than it usually does, par 4 scoring is important as always, and par 5 scoring looks about as important as par 3 scoring.

Weather

It appears to be windy with gusts on Thursday and then calm on Friday. This means if we can find a window Thursday where golfers will face the least wind, then they should have a big advantage over the field. Nothing messes with a golf ball more than gusty winds. Constant wind can be judged, but you can’t do anything about gusts. Everybody tees off midday, though, so it might be impossible to find an edge.

Gophers

Jason Day 12.6k – 4th here in 2013. 12th at DBC 2 weeks ago, tying his worst finish in the last 3 months. Stats look alright for the course and his form cannot be beat.

Rory McIlroy 12.1k – 59th in 13. 29th 2 weeks ago. Ankle might still be bothering him. I’d rather have Spieth or Day.

Spieth11.6k – He’s still Jordan Spieth even though he’s missed two cuts in a row. Hoping his recent poor performance will get people off of him. 16th here in 2013.

Stenson11.4k – Best ball striker in the game, but 33rd here in 2013. Stats look good.

Fowler10.7k – He won last week, he got cut the week before. Too streaky for his price tag, traditionally goes over-owned in my opinion. I’m off him as usual.

Dustin Johnson 10.4k – 62nd here last. 44th 2 weeks ago after 2 top 10s. Will likely be unpopular. I’m off him too.

Bubba10.2 – I like him. 24th here. 29th last week, but it wasn’t his course. His form is excellent, especially if you omit the courses he doesn’t like that he played this summer.

Furyk10k – Holds the course record here. Shot a bogey in that round too. 3rd here in 13. 4th 2 weeks ago. Usually unpopular and should remain so at this price point. I like him.

Rose9.8k – I like him, especially since he got cut last week. That wasn’t his course either, so I give him a pass.

Zach Johnson 9.5k – Won here in 2013. 22nd last week, not his course. Might be over-owned since he won here. He’s a fine play.

Kuchar9.2k – I like him a lot. His stats fit this course better than anybody else on the top end. 24th here in 13. 9, 39, 7, 25, 7, 58, 2 this summer.

Hideki8.9k – Rough form. 25, 13, cut, 37, 37, 18. Didn’t play in 2013. I’m off him this week, although the course does look good for him. Last several courses looked good for him too.

Reed8.7k – Too expensive with the comparables around him. 59th in 2013.

Sergio8.6k – Has sat out a month. 18th here in 13. Poor form before break (54, 37). I’m off him.

Oosty8.4k – Still no. This is a links course, though, and he does well on links courses.

Koepka8.2k – See Spieth, Jordan. He’s still a good play, should have lower ownership after double-burning people last 2 outings.

Hoffman8.1k – Some of you made fun of me liking him 2 weeks ago and then he finished 3rd after leading for a while. That course was made for him, this one is not and now he is expensive. Fade. 68th here in 2013.

Kisner8.1k – No

Mahan8k – I like Kisner more.

Streb8k – I like him more than Kisner, but only slightly.

Matt Jones 7.9k – No, although he did finish 8th here in 13 and 4th 2 weeks ago.

Snedeker7.9k – Si! Stats look good, 8th in 13, rough form lately though. GPP only.

Mickelson7.8k – He’s cheap because he hasn’t been very good lately. 33rd in 13 and I’m off him.

Casey7.8k – I don’t like his form, so I’m off him. WD, 39, 3, 30, 17. First try here.

Bradley7.8k – He’s like Casey for me. I mean they aren’t bad, but I’m not making many lineups this week so no.

Danny Lee 7.7k – No…

Justin Thomas 7.6k – Yes! The real reason I don’t like most of those guys above him.

Guys I Like at 7.5k or Below:

English7.4k – 50th here in 13, but coming into form and cheap. 12, 30, 31, 48, 46, 68, 72, 25.

Palmer7.3k – Didn’t play here in 2013 and poor finish last week after emotional exhale. Cheap, good golfer.

Bohn7.2k – Will be a staple of my lineups. Cut last week drops his price. 9, 37, 4, 12, and 13 after that. I didn’t like him last week, I do this week.

Perez7.2k – Another first timer here. I like him more for cash than upside. 29, 20, cut, 21, 18, 55, 22.

Na7.2k – Poor form makes him cheap. His kind of course though.

Todd7k – Another bunter, another first timer here, and also in poor form. They are cheap for a reason.

Stefani6.9k – See: Todd, Brendan

Not a lot of goodness on the bottom end, going to make it tough to get the expensive guys which should keep their ownership down.

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