DFS Daily Update for 9/17: NFL Week 2 Preview
Hello again, I’m back after a full weekend of football action. There were a lot of surprises as well as a lot of things we all expected. Overall, it was a pretty good opening slate of games, full of information to be soaked up and digested. Going into week 2 of the NFL season, there are still many things to wonder, but we’ve also been given a solid glimpse into what we can expect to come.
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Today I’ll be doing a brief preview of each game like I did last week. All DFS salaries listed will be from DraftKings, as that is where I play exclusively. From now on, I’ll also be doing an update on Friday and Saturday where I discuss usage numbers and injuries, respectively. Last weekend kicked off with a bang as far as DFS action and the fun keeps going this week as well. Let’s get to the games!
Thursday Night Football: Denver at Kansas City (Chiefs -3, 42)
There were a lot of surprises from both teams in their opening tilts. Denver’s presumably high-powered offense appeared to be suffering a brownout, while the Chiefs offense ran rough shot over what I expected to be a pretty solid Texans defense. The spread for this game opened with the Broncos being a slight favorite, but quickly went to KC being a three point favorite instead. This is certainly a reaction to the performances of both teams on Sunday.
Peyton Manning looked like a man who can’t feel his fingertips (or his whole right arm for that matter), as he struggled to throw the ball with any zip. Alex Smith, on the other hand, looked pretty good, as he found his two best receivers (Kelce and Maclin) with ease. While everyone seems to be jumping off the Bronco bandwagon, I think that getting Denver with three points here is a pretty sweet spot, especially considering how stout the Broncos defense was on Sunday.
From a DFS stand point, I would avoid Alex Smith. His salary of only $6300 looks enticing and affordable, but on a short week I don’t like his chances versus the Broncos’ nasty pass rush. Conversely, I think Peyton at $7500 is worth a look this week because I expect everyone to be avoiding him.
Both starting RBs are fine plays, as Charles ($7600) and Anderson ($6700) should both receive plenty of touches. Travis Kelce at $5100 should also be good value, though I’m sure he will be heavily owned after a monster week 1 performance.
Both defenses are going to be good plays as well, in my opinion. Denver’s D ($2800) looked incredible in all aspects and the KC D ($2900) has a talented pass rush that will be playing with one of the best crowds in pro sports behind them. Thursday night games have been historically ugly because of the lack of rest and time to game plan, but I am still very excited for this primetime divisional showdown.
Houston at Carolina (Panthers -3, 40)
We go from a highly anticipated match up to one that leaves a lot to be desired. The Panthers looked alright, as they beat a still struggling Jacksonville team on the road. Houston did not look alright, as they got thoroughly handled by KC in their own house. Not only did they get owned at home, but the Texans had to change QBs in the middle of it.
Neither team excites me very much from a talent standpoint, so I likely won’t pay much attention to this game on Sunday. The low total of 40 indicates that Vegas expects this to be a low scoring affair and I concur with that assessment.
I would avoid both quarterbacks in this game, as neither Cam Newton nor newly inserted Ryan Mallet are great fantasy options at this point in time. Considering Travis Kelce threw a party for himself in the Houston secondary last week, I think Greg Olsen at $4900 is a strong play despite a high price tag for a TE.
Jonathan Stewart at $5500 is an excellent play in my eyes as well. Being a dual threat RB, he should put up points on the ground as well as through the air. On Houston’s side of the ball, the only real option I can find is DeAndre Hopkins ($7400). While he carries a pretty high salary, he is the only real threat in the Houston offense and will be peppered with targets from the strong-armed Mallet. You never know in the NFL, but this is a game I don’t see being very entertaining.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Saints -10, 47)
Anyone that watched Tampa play last week should not be surprised by the Saints being monster favorites in the Superdome this Sunday. The Buccaneers looked bad in every aspect of the game, except for a solid first half from RB Doug Martin. Jameis Winston looked every bit like a rookie QB getting used to playing against grown men that are bigger, faster, and stronger than just about everyone else in the world.
Meanwhile, the Saints did not look so hot in Arizona either. The game was close, but you never got the feeling that Drew Brees was comfortable. I expect that to change this week, as Brees will face a defense that made Marcus Mariota look like a first ballot hall of famer.
From a DFS standpoint, there are several options I like in this matchup. Feel free to fire up Brees ($7800) and Mark Ingram ($5900), as they should both prosper from good match ups in their home opener. I especially like Ingram, both because of his price point and that I expect him to have plenty of goal line chances. If the spread holds true, Ingram should also receive plenty of carries, as New Orleans presumably salts away the game in the second half.
Along with Brees, I like the idea of stacking him with Brandin Cooks ($7000). He will be Drew’s main target in the passing game vs. a secondary that got roasted by a similar player in Kendall Wright (small, speedy).
Tampa Bay will likely be trailing in this game, so they should be throwing it a lot. Mike Evans should play and if he does I think his $7400 price point is reasonable. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins at $4100 is also a fine play, though I expect many people to be riding him after his big game on Sunday. Besides Mark Ingram, my favorite play in this game is Vincent Jackson ($5500). He has a cheap price tag and is coming off of a weak opening game. While this game doesn’t intrigue me much, there is a lot of DFS potential here.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (Steelers -5.5, 45)
Coming off of a strong MNF performance, the Niners now face the tough task of traveling cross-country to play a 1pm game vs. a talented Steelers team. Not only does this trend negatively towards SF, but they are also on a short week after playing on Monday night. I think the Niners are very likely to regress towards the mean against a Steelers team that has been resting since last Thursday night.
I don’t love this game for DFS, but there are certainly options. Big Ben and Antonio Brown are going to be weekly plays regardless of matchup or salary. The best value play on the Steelers, to me, is Heath Miller. With Le’Veon Bell out again, I expect Miller to receive a lot of targets again this week. With a price tag of only $3500, I’d feel great about stacking him with Ben and the very expensive Brown ($8800).
For the Niners, Carlos Hyde at only $5100 is very enticing to me. The power back looked very strong and elusive on Monday night and the short week shouldn’t bother this second year pro. Pittsburgh gave up 120 total yards to Dion Lewis, so Hyde should have a great chance to perform well for a second straight week.
In the passing game, I really like Anquan Boldin at $5700. I think Colin Kaepernick will have to lean on his receivers in this game to keep pace with Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense. Assuming that scenario plays out, Boldin should get a lot of targets. This game should be very entertaining; I recommend you try to check it out (assuming you can look away from the RedZone channel for a minute or two).
Detroit at Minnesota (Vikings -3, 43)
Both of these teams laid foul-smelling eggs in week 1. Detroit choked off a huge lead and found a way to lose a very winnable game, while the Vikings apparently went to play their game at Candlestick instead of Levi’s Stadium. While I am curious to see how both teams respond to their opening game flops, I don’t like this match up much for DFS play.
One play I really like is Adrian Peterson ($7700). After running into the Niners front seven which served as a proverbial brick wall, I think AP goes nuts this week vs. a much softer Lions front.
Considering the Vikings got obliterated by the Niner running game, I also like Ameer Abdullah as a cheap value play at only $4500. He won’t get a ton of touches, but so far he has lit opposing defenses on fire when given the opportunity. Other than those two running backs, I don’t have a lot of confidence in either side putting up many fantasy points.
New England at Buffalo (Patriots -1, 45)
I tried to warn everyone I knew to avoid the Colts last week and much like a broken clock is twice a day, I was right! Buffalo’s defense looked very impressive in its debut under defensive guru Rex Ryan. Tyrod Taylor also looked very solid in his first career start, but here come the Patriots.
Rex Ryan has historically stymied Tom Brady, going back to his days as the Baltimore defensive coordinator. Similarly, Bill Belichick is also well known for scheming rookie QBs into football oblivion. Given those two things, I expect this to be a defensive slugfest. Ultimately, I think Brady will prevail, as he has a very balanced set of weapons to work with.
I don’t really care for many players in this game from a fantasy standpoint. Julian Edelman ($6700) has the highest floor to me since he will likely be doused with a lot of short passes from Brady. I consider him a safe play and Gronk ($7300) is always a good choice as well.
For Buffalo, I like Percy Harvin ($4500) for the same reasons I like Edelman, not to mention Harvin has the speed to go to the house on any play. Shady McCoy at $6600 is also enticing to me considering the Patriots were gouged by the corpse of DeAngelo Williams last week. Overall, I would avoid playing this game and just sit back and watch instead.
Arizona at Chicago (Cardinals -1.5, 45)
Another intriguing matchup that also brings some great DFS plays. The Cards passing game looked pretty good last week, while the Bears featured an impressive performance from renaissance man Matt Forte. Chicago’s defense played pretty well against all-world QB Aaron Rodgers, but ultimately gave up a lot of points.
I expect Carson Palmer ($6700) to have a good amount of success through the air and love the idea of stacking him and either John Brown ($5100) or Larry Fitzgerald ($5400). Those relatively cheap price tags would allow you to also put costly Matt Forte ($7700) into your lineup. Based on the output Mark Ingram had vs. the Cards D, I think Forte is primed for another monster all-around game here.
The Bears passing game is still very murky to me, as Alshon Jeffery’s health is clouding my judgement of his and Jay Cutler’s potential. The one receiving option I do love for Chicago is Martellus Bennett ($4500), although I’m sure many people are also thinking the same thing. As someone who drafted both QBs late in season-long leagues this year, I’m very curious to see how this game plays out.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Titans -1, 41.5)
Marcus Mariota and the Titans looked excellent in their opening game on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns looked like, well, the Browns. This is likely to be one of the most forgettable games of the year and I won’t waste your time elaborating on it. I won’t be playing anyone from Cleveland, and I strongly encourage you to avoid them as well.
Tennessee has a few enticing options: Mariota ($6000) and sneaky sleeper Kendall Wright ($5000) make for an enticing combo and Bishop Sankey ($4500) is a cheap play that should get at least one plunge into the end zone from a short distance. Other than that, let’s just pretend this game isn’t even on the schedule, deal?
San Diego at Cincinnati (Bengals -3, 46)
Both teams are coming off high-scoring wins and looked good in the process. San Diego got owned in the first half, but stormed back in the second half by flinging the pigskin all over the place. Cincy started out a little slow, but ultimately set a match to the giant dumpster fire that is the Oakland Raiders. I think this should be a close game with a good amount of offense and so does Las Vegas.
I would feel good about firing up both QBs in this game, as they both have several weapons to work with. There are multiple cheap DFS plays in this game as well besides the obvious plays like AJ Green, Jeremy Hill and Keenan Allen (whom I also like to play well). Danny Woodhead ($4000) is almost always a lock to skank out a TD or two in the red zone, along with some catches.
Stevie Johnson ($4200) had a huge game last Sunday and if Phillip Rivers has time to survey the field, I think he’ll be more than worth his low salary. For the Bengals, Tyler Eifert ($4200) had a breakout game. While he will likely be highly owned, I think he’s a very nice option as a cheap flex or TE at his price point. This game should be a fun one to watch and is yet another game that I’m curious to see, as both teams are potential playoff contenders.
St. Louis at Washington (Rams -3.5, 41)
Rams fans everywhere rejoiced last week as their team pulled out a sweet comeback vs. NFC powerhouse Seattle. I threw their QB Nick Foles under the bus a bit last week and had to eat my words on Sunday. He played very well against an elite defense.
Washington, on the other hand, stunk like Bigfoot’s you know what. They did have two bright spots in TE Jordan Reed and underrated Alfred Morris. Unfortunately, I think both of those players have a tough match up vs. a very mean Rams defense. I would avoid Washington altogether and be very happy to start the Rams D.
Besides the aforementioned Rams defense, I don’t really like anyone on their offense in terms of fantasy success this week. The only reason I might watch this game would be to see if one the Rams defensive lineman literally eats Kirk Cousins alive. Other than, nothing else to see here.
Atlanta at New York Giants (Giants -2.5, 51)
Atlanta is on a short week, but should have a lot of optimism heading into New York. The Falcons played very well on both sides of the ball and stunned the Eagles, much to my dismay. The Giants, however, took a certain victory and threw it in the trash as they blew their game against Dallas in absurd fashion.
Vegas has the total in this game at a lofty 51, which should mean lots of DFS points up for grabs. Firing the usual suspects like Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Odell Beckham Jr. seems like a no-brainer. Two cheap plays that could bring a lot of value are Tevin Coleman ($4500) and Rashad Jennings ($5000). I especially like Jennings in this match up; he gets it done in the passing game as well as on the ground and gets goal line work as well. Shootouts like this game figures to be are great to watch, so tune in if you like offense.
Baltimore at Oakland (Ravens -6, 42)
Vegas has installed the Ravens as a large favorite and capped the total at a pretty low 42, meaning they expect Baltimore to win this game in without much of a fight from Oakland. Despite losing their best defensive lineman in Terrell Suggs, I love the Baltimore D ($2900) as a DFS play this week. Pairing that defense up with RB Justin Forsett ($6200) is a smart play, as I expect Forsett to succeed vs. a Raiders D that couldn’t stop a clock last week.
Oakland’s QB situation is in doubt, as Derek Carr suffered an arm injury on Sunday. Due to this, I wouldn’t play anyone on the Oakland offense with the exception of Latavius Murray ($5800). His elite speed and ability to catch the ball well give him a solid floor with the added bonus of breaking a huge TD play. Murray’s price tag is also affordable, so he is worth a dart throw if you want to take a chance on him. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Miami at Jacksonville (Dolphins -6, 41.5)
Just like the Ravens/Raiders game, Vegas has the road team as a big favorite in a low-scoring game. Jacksonville seems due to improve on offense, but they didn’t show it last week. I would avoid their offense entirely, as I don’t see them prospering vs. a pretty solid Miami D.
The Dolphins have a couple good options, but nothing too exciting either. Lamar Miller ($5500) should be able to improve upon his pedestrian outing last week and at his price point I like him a lot. Jarvis Landry ($5900) also comes with a very reasonable salary and gives you a high floor due to his usual output in PPR scoring. Overall, this is a game I wouldn’t invest much time or money in.
Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -5, 55)
Considering the offensive talent and the high total, this game is loaded with DFS potential. Despite losing Dez Bryant to a broken foot, Dallas has multiple options I like. Terrance Williams ($4200) is super cheap and will be getting plenty of targets from elite QB Tony Romo ($7100). Stacking them is a great spot, in my opinion.
Cole Beasley ($3300) is also going to receive an increase in action and will be easy to fit into lineups at his super cheap price point. For the Eagles, there are some nice options as well. Coming off a lackluster game, I expect Sam Bradford ($6900) to have a strong game vs. a Dallas secondary lacking in talent. Pairing him with Jordan Matthews ($7100) could bring in a huge return.
It’s hard for me to recommend a Philly running back because all three of them take touches away from each other. However I wouldn’t fault you for choosing any one of them, either. Usually a highly anticipated divisional match up, this game should be a good one.
Seattle at Green Bay (Green Bay -3.5, 49)
Sunday Night Football brings us a rematch of last year’s NFC title game. Both teams looked pretty well in their openers and I can’t wait to get to fully focus on this game in primetime. Vegas has the total at 49 and I think that number will be exceeded rather easily.
Seattle’s D is very good, but not elite without the presence of monster safety Kam Chancellor. Seattle’s offense isn’t elite either, but they should succeed mightily on the ground vs. the Packers soft run D that was gouged by Matt Forte. I love Marshawn Lynch ($7200) and will be playing him in most of my lineups. If you play DFS cash games, I think he’s a great bet to produce.
I also love Aaron Rodgers ($8300), as many do, to move the ball at will in the house Lombardi built. Stacking him with any of his three main receivers is an idea I’m quite fond of. I think Eddie Lacy might be one to avoid this week, as Seattle is extremely tough vs. the run. NFL Sundays that end with primetime matchups like this are truly a beautiful thing.
Monday Night Football: New York Jets at Indianapolis (Colts -7, 47)
Coming off a real dud, I expect Andrew Luck ($8200) to be ready to light it up on Monday night. Despite playing vs. a stout Jets D without his best receiver, I still like pairing him with either Andre Johnson ($5800) or Donte Moncrief ($4600). I would avoid Frank Gore, as the Jets are one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Speaking of the Jets, they will have a tough time on both sides of the ball in this one, as Indy’s home field advantage is one of the best in the league. The only play I really like for the Jets is Brandon Marshall ($6400) simply because I expect the Jets to be throwing a lot in this game and he is their best receiver.
Another enticing play here is the Indy defense at the cheap price of $2900. Ryan Fitzpatrick is very turnover-prone and I think there’s a good chance he turns it over multiple times in this game. Kind of a stinker for Monday night, but let’s be honest, any football on Monday night is a good thing.
Good luck to all of you this week. I’ll be back on Friday with my look at players I think will be highly owned as well as some contrarian plays.
