When deconstructing the rosters of the previous 2015 DraftKings Millionaire Maker winning lineups, it is extremely informative to analyze the approaches taken when it comes to salary allocation at the WR position. Through 15 weeks, the winning player has flexed a WR 7 times, including each of the past 4.

The first thing we need to do when breaking down WR roster plays is to organize the type of receiver by salary group. I’ve broken down the receivers under the DK pricing structure into four tiers, as follows: Tier 1 are the studs, priced in a given week from 8,000 to 9,300. Tier 2 are the good receivers just under the elite with prices from 7,900 down to 6,400. Tier 3 are the group from 6,300 down to 4,900. Tier 4 represents the bargain basement plays under 4,800. The winners’ distribution between these 4 Tiers looks like this (flx = weeks a 4th WR was used in the flex position):

Of the 7 weeks where a flex WR was used, it is interesting to note that only once did the player not roster a high-priced stud and every one of the 6 who used a Tier 1 stud also rostered at least 1 Tier 2. None of them went star/scrub to any extreme.

Further digging into the characteristics of each individual tier group starts to show similarities shared by winning players rostered:

The Tier 1 table shows the 13 studs rostered by winning Milly owners. Three players – Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr. – comprise 11 of the 13. Overall, the 13 players went 9-4 on the field the weeks used, and were favored 10 times, underdogs twice, and pick em once. Winning owners are strongly correlating Tier 1 success with winning, using predominantly solid favorites.

Our Tier 2 players are not nearly as strongly correlated with wins on the field, showing a 9-8 actual record in their games, while Milly owners rostered 8 underdogs. The solid value return on these losers proves owners were on the right track in dismissing the importance to Tier 2 receivers.

With Tier 3, we start to see a shift; although the W/L still plays as largely irrelevant at 6-5, the Milly owners were solidly rostering favorites.

As we hit the bargain bin, we see the W/L record strongly correlate to fantasy performance in the same way as Tier 1: winning players on a team that’s favorited is the order of the day when hunting for discounts. Overall, Tier 1 and 4 combine for an 18-6 record on the field, while Tier 2 and 3 go 15-13, showing where to focus.

It is often said that the NFL season changes once you hit Halloween and this is drastically obvious in looking at rostering favorites at WR:

Season – Favorites 36 WR, Underdogs 15 (.686).
Week 1-7: Favorites 13, Underdogs 10 (.565)
Week 8-15: Favorites 23, Underdogs 5 (.821)

In summary, the winners have spread out amongst Tiers, but as the season has progressed, it has been essential to roster WRs who figure to win on the field in order for you to win off of it.

Now, take what you learned and sign up for DraftKingsand sign up for FanDuel.