Expecting Others to Act Rationally is Irrational
Expecting others to act rationally is irrational. What percentage of the people you know act rationally almost all of the time? I know that most of the people I come across on a daily basis don’t, and I’m sure the same could be said of me. In poker, we are constantly trying to anticipate how others will react and often their decisions baffle us. Sometimes we are faced with a true head-scratcher, but most of the time, false assumptions are the reasons for our surprise.
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First, we expect that people are acting rationally. Second, we decide what is rational based on our perspective, our goals, our fears, our style, and our view of the situation. None of those things have anything to do with what is reality or what is a rational decision for our opponent.
How many times have you heard someone complaining about a player making a call in a situation where the call is nothing out of the ordinary? The player making the bluff is looking at the information through the lens of “I want the other guy to fold” and shaping the story in his head to make that happen. The problem is that isn’t anywhere near the story the other player is processing.
Stepping outside of ourselves, almost like we are floating above and viewing everything that is happening from a bird’s eye view, is a skill that is invaluable in poker and life in general. An appropriate evaluation of oneself is important in business, relationships, and poker, allowing us to more appropriately look at ourselves both objectively and as others see us. That may not be objective at all, but it is still very important to our interaction with others.
The last few days before the U.S. election were interesting, as the process of electing a President had been turned into a strategic game of identifying key areas and finding ways to focus on them. Each campaign had to make assessments of what could influence voters and in which areas it was vital to try to gain influence. I’m sure looking back, both sides see many areas where they took the wrong approach, mainly because they expected the voters to be “rational.”
Like poker, it is an inexact science and hard to quantify for sure what really motivates a person to get out and vote one way or the other. People lie, both to themselves and everyone around them, so even asking them isn’t a reliable indicator of what really moves them.
Poker is a great training ground for assessing motives and evaluating our assessments. It takes constant attention and a willingness to continually update our views as more data becomes available. Being able to do this for a session of poker is great practice for doing the same type of thing in other areas of your life.
Just remember, when you are trying to figure out what someone else is likely to do, you have to get inside his head. If you stay inside your own head, you will end up with handfuls of hair that you keep pulling out. Why? Those around you will leave you confused and frustrated by acting irrationally in your eyes when they were actually acting in a predictable manner all along.
Court Harrington has worked on the business side of the poker industry in roles including tournament reporting for PocketFives, radio hosting for PokerRoad Radio, coaching for the WSOP Academy and privately, and a variety of behind-the-scenes responsibilities for poker media businesses. He also plays in cash games and tournaments. Harrington is currently doing consulting work and exploring business opportunities outside of the poker industry. You can contact him at Court@CourtHarrington.com.
