Man, I can’t believe that it’s a new PGA season already. It feels like it’s been month since last season’s championship. Oh, the President’s Cup was last weekend? The British Master’s was the weekend before that? There was a web.com championship? And the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship? Are you trying to tell me that there is no such thing as a season in golf and that golf is more similar to poker tournament seasons than the baseball or basketball season? If you want to try out some DFS golf, head to FanDueland DraftKings.

Frys.com Open
Silverado Resort & Spa (North)
Napa, CA
7,203 yards, par 72.

Re-opened in May 2011 after many years of success since it’s 1967 grand opening. This is only the 2nd year they’ve played on the new Johnny Miller course competitively. Sang-Moon Bae (now serving in the South Korean military) won over Steven Bowdich last year.

The course lies in the heart of Napa wine country, and vineyards are OB on the left side of 3 and 4. The course seems like a rather easy course through a housing development. There are few bunkers or water hazards. There are some trees but this is California not Carolina. The bombers should have an edge but the course is short enough that you can’t count out the bunters. A handful of superstars including Rory and Rose are playing due to an agreement they made with the PGA a couple years ago. They said they would play this tournament if the PGA sent them to Disneyland or something like that.

Looking at last year’s results it seems that driving distance was more important than driving accuracy. GIR stands out as well, almost as much as SG:T2G, but the strokes gained stats are always more important. Sand saves, proximity, and scrambling all ping the radar a bit, and as expected par 4 and par 5 scoring is important. Since we only have one year’s worth of data to draw from, I think it is important to heavily target the strokes gained statistics, especially putting. These poa greens are fast and undulated.

Bae won at -15, the cut was E, and scores were held down on the weekend due to high wind. Worst Th-Fri score was +15.

Weather

C’mon, California doesn’t get weather.

Thursday looks like a 7mph breeze in the morning, picking up to 10mph at 5pm. 0% chance of rain.

Friday looks like 7mph in the morning, and then 11mph by 5pm. No rain.

Locals

Ben Geyer, James Hahn, Spencer Levin, Nick Watney, and David Solomon live no further away than Sacramento. Kevin Chappell lives in Fresno, not exactly Napa, but closer than the rest of the guys on tour. Why he lives in Fresno is hard for me to understand.

Gophers

Rory 12.8k – The man to beat this week. I think he’s worth the price tag. He’s the best golfer in the field by a large margin and his price point is attainable with excellent value out there this opening week. 16, 4, 29, and 17 since coming back from his ankle injury playing footy celebrating ridding the British Empire of a bunch of puritan pricks on July 4th. .

Rose 12k – Myself and most will find the extra 800 to buy Rory, making Rose an intriguing GPP play. He’s had a great summer, better than Rory: 2, 13, cut, 16, 4, 3, 4, and 6th. Pretty good. Rose and Rory lineups are attainable.

Hideki 10.8k – I think he’s expensive and will be too popular. Form trending positively after a mediocre summer. 12, 7, 25, 13, cut, 37, 37, and 18. 3rd here last year is nice. Prob fine for cash but I’d rather have…

Koepka 10.6k – He burned people at the end of last season, he used the time off to play golf. Great stats and the dude scores fantasy points. 8th here last year. He’s shaken off his two recent missed cuts that everybody had him on with a 2nd, 18th, and 49th since. He’ll be a staple in my lineups as usual.

Under 10k

Thomas 9.3k – I like him, I don’t like that he was cut here last year. He’s matured a bunch in the last year though and his stats look good for the course. 13, 56, 16, 56, 18, and 4th, so form leaves something to be desired too, probably best as a GPP play, but how popular will he be?

Finau 9.2k – Another sophomore, I’ll go to Streb before Finau. Complete fade for me. 12th last year, shaky form this summer.

Streb 9.2k – Sophomore number 3 in a row, 31st here last year, 18, 23, 38, 39, 10, 5, and 18. I like him, need to wrestle with him v Thomas more. Prob the better cash play.

Na 9k – Another fine option, I like others around him more though. Higher on my list than Finau but lower than his neighbors.

Berger 8.9k – Cut last year. 12, 2, and 12 following 7 straight missed cuts. I’m off him, intriguing GPP play though, he’s proven he can top ten, 4 times in the last year.

Snedeker 8.8k – He’s on the list, but a 57th here in 2014 and poor form has me using him for GPPs only off him.

Emiliano Grillo 8.8k – An Euro Tour player who comes over once in a while, he is an intriguing option for me. He just earned his PGA Tour card with an impressive web.com playoff run. I don’t have much data on him but what I do has me ranking him very highly. His form is excellent, he won the web.com tour champ 2 weeks ago, got cut the week before, and booked a 2nd and 9th in the 2 weeks before that. 61st, 22nd, and 10th rounds out his summer. Stats look good, but are statistically insignificant in my database.

Schwartzel 8.7k – My top lowball play on the week.

Palmer 8.6k – I like him. I’m torn on using him for cash, I think I might try to get Grillo in there instead. Fine GPP play. Great stats. 23, 65, 6, cut, 70, 41, and 30th is his form.

Mahan 8.6k – Another great lowball play.

Under 8.5k

Steele 8.3k – I like him. He might be my pivot from Palmer for cash games. Usually pretty consistent. 21st here last year, 13, 44, cut, 12, 7, and 30th.

Jones 8.2k – Not on my list

Moore 8.2k – No

Bowdich 8.2k – Interesting. 2nd here last year. Poor form, GPP only. Might be popular.

Chappell 8.2k – Localish (Fresno), still off my list.

Watney 8.1k – Nope.

Simpson 8.1k – On my list! 64, 44, 30, 6, 54, 25, 40th. Good stats. Long putter nightmare looming?

Kirk 8.1k – I like him better than Webb and Russell. Poor form after coming back from a broken hand, he should be healed by now though. Makes a good GPP play.

Henley 8.1k – Probably off him cause I like Simpson and Kirk more.

Summerhays 8k – Has roots with course redesigner (Johnny Miller). Nice stats. Inconsistent.

Todd 8k – Yes! Only thing he doesn’t have here is length. Poorish form though. 23, 44, 24, cut, cut, 61, 12

Guys under 8k on my list:

Jason Bohn 7.6k – Local. Cut here last year. 64, cut, 9, 37, and 4th last 3 months.

Will Wilcox 7.5k – Hasn’t played in a while. Nice form before with a cut, 26, 10, 21, and 2nd. Had a minor injury, I imagine he’s recovered.

Pat Perez 7.5k – Cut here last year. Cut, 45, 29, 20, cut, 21, and 18 last 3 months.

Cameron Smith 7.5k – Young Aussie quietly putting together a nice resume. 18 and 25 last 3 months, why hasn’t he been playing? I dunno. He earned his tour card this year thanks to $1.2m in earnings. His first event was the CIMB classic 11/2/14, he finished 5th. Followed that with 4 straight MC, and has been solid since RBC Heritage: 15, 43, 46, cut, 4 (at US Open!), 39, 25 (PGA Champ!), and 18.

George McNeil 7.5k – Cut here. 13, cut, 30, 31, cut, 30.

Boo Weekley 7.2k – GPP flier only. Poor form.

Shawn Stefani 7.1k – 53rd last year. 59, 65, 39, cut, 52. Poor form makes him cheap in this weakish field.

Ben Martin 6.9k – Cut last year. 68, 25, 68, 10, cut, 57, 74.

Hudson Swafford 6.9k – 8th here last year! 33, 50, cut, cut, 21, 71 recent form. Stats look good.

Jason Kokrak 6.9k – 46th here last year. cut, cut, and wd last 3.

Colt Knost 6.3k – 26th last year, 44, cut, cut, 10, 39, and 48 recent form.

Spencer Levin 6.1k – 21st here last year, 7/7 making the cut in Cali last 2 years. .Local. Seems to be popular.

Steve Wheatcroft 5.7k – 71st here, cut, cut 47 11 58 recent form.