Experts from 2CardsCollege training program continue to analyze some hands from their students and PocketFives users. Here are a few of the most interesting hands of the week.

We have 304 hands on the villain. He has 14/12 VPIP/PFR, 12.25 % (24) BTN 3bet, and 10.4 total 3bet. Most of those 3bets were likely made in the tournaments’ late stages, which narrows his actual 3bet range since he almost never calls raises pre-flop. This is how I perceive his range:

We need 26% equity to call pre-flop. We have ~43% equity against his range. 26/43*100% = 60%, which is the required equity realization coefficient to have a zero expectation from this hand. I think we would have more than 60%, according to CardrunnersEV, which makes this call a profitable one.

The villain has a 79% (14) flop and an 80% (5) turn c-bets. Considering his post-flop aggression, I think he would turn into a bluff all of his pocket pairs at least half of the time and check second pairs on this board. Anyway, his high c-bet means he might bet third pairs, as well as second ones, or even 100% of his range.

In my experience, in a hand like this, even those who bet 100% of hands with weak or medium holdings do not continue after Hero’s check/call and play the rest of the hand passively instead. I am sure the opponent would not triple-barrel hands like KQ or 99.

The opponent will not continue with weak aces on the turn. Instead, he will bet turned draws and strong hands. We need 26% equity to call, but have only 16%, so we should have folded on the turn.

The river call is profitable only if the opponent continues betting second and third pairs, turning them into a bluff. On a board like this one, it is a very rare line, mostly performed by weak players. It rarely happens in practice.

This hand is a good example of overplaying your hand. Hero should have folded the turn.

At first sight, this hand was played in a default way. However, we can only know it, if we were right to think we had a value bet on the river. Let us analyze this hand from the very beginning. The villain is unknown, most likely a weak player since Hero has gathered a lot of stats on the regulars. Let us see how the villain’s approximated range can be gradually adjusted step by step.

Here is his estimated range of pre-flop call:

AQ has 50% weight: he either calls or 3bets. On the contrary, 50% weight for the other marked hands means he calls or folds.

We do not exactly know how the opponent plays. We cannot precisely analyze the
probability of him raising two pairs or better or how aggressively he plays flush draws. Therefore, I used 50% probability to simplify the analysis.

Our hand has 61% equity against his calling range and is an obligatory value bet against a weak opponent. I think Hero has chosen a wrong bet-sizing since a weak player would call almost any bet with this range. A bet from 2/3 to 4/5 of the pot would be more appropriate.

The turn has significantly strengthened the Hero. The opponent would continue with at least 58% hands of his flop defending range. I think he would often check/raise his straights. I discarded 66 and 77 because he should know he cannot often win with those hands and making a straight could leave him with a worse hand, which is why I removed some weak hits and the weakest draws.

This is his range of the turn call:

This time, the bet sizing is closer to optimal, although I would also consider over-betting.The river strengthened the opponent significantly. At this point, if we are going to bet/fold, in order to have a value bet, we need more than 50% equity against his check/call range plus the probability of getting check-raised.

Let me explain this a bit further. A weak player would rarely turn his weak value holdings into a bluff or check-raise bluff with busted draws, which means that his check-raising range consists mostly of strong hands. I do not think he would check-raise a straight or two pair since the board is very dangerous. I also think he would only check-raise half of his flushes.

I doubt that a weak player would often call with TX hands on a dangerous board like this, but considering this type of players’ general weakness, I would assign 25% probability of such a call.

We can see that our hand has a borderline equity for a call. Besides, he has 15% of flushes on the river (see the screenshot below), half of which he may check-raise. To make a value bet, Hero needs 50% equity against the range +7.5% = 57% equity, while he only has ~51% (see the screenshot above).

Therefore, it is not optimal to bet the river on a dangerous board like this.

If you want to find out in more detail how the proper hand analysis is done, post your own hands in this threador send them to mail@2cardscollege.com (you should specify your PocketFives user name in the subject line) and our coaches will analyze a few of the most interesting hands next week.

In order to facilitate the process, please post the hands in a converted format using
converters like weaktight.com or similar in this thread. Links to the posted hands or screenshots from the hand viewer in Holdem Manager are okay too. We will accept your hands for review from today and our coaches will have the analysis ready for you within a week from the receipt.