According to this week’s PokerScout Scouting Report, the coming year will be a pivotal one not only for Russia, but also for online poker worldwide. “Players from the Russian Federation currently comprise a significant portion of total traffic on many of the largest poker sites,” the PokerScout report stated. “But if the Russian government has its way, online poker will be about as prevalent in Russia as it is currently in the United States – that is, virtually nonexistent.”

The timeline for the effects of the Russian situation date back to 2012, when the Russian Supreme Court, in response to stronger gambling laws in the country, informed internet service providers to block the access to online gambling in all but four specially designated “gambling zones” that had been established in 2009. Those four zones – Kaliningrad Oblast, Azov City, Altai Krai, and Primorsky Krai – are on the far-flung edges of the Russian border where infrastructure is spotty and live gambling has yet to take hold.

In response to the Russian Supreme Court order, the government started to block websites, but only hit ones deemed pornographic or those that promoted “criminal behavior.”

In 2013, a major ISP service in Russia called Beehivebegan blocking attempts by players looking to get online at PokerStars. While this was significant, the PokerScout data suggested that the move by Beehive “had little effect on players’ ability to use the software.” It did, however, demonstrate the Russian government’s commitment to halt online gambling, according to PokerScout’s analysts.

Over the past year, Russia has vacillated between potentially passing legislation that would open up its online poker market and an outright ban on the activity. In March 2014, the Russian government put PokerStars and other online poker sites on a “blacklist,” which brought about the departure of Betfairfrom the Russian Federation. But in June, the Russian Finance Ministry reported that talks were in the works that would regulate online poker in the country, designating poker as an “intellectual and commercial game” rather than a game of chance and returning it to the country’s official sports registry.

In December, those talks failed to reach fruition and, instead, the opposite path was taken. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Bill 478806-6, which puts further punishments on illegal gaming operations. Under the new law in Russia, fines would increase to a maximum of 500,000 rubles and/or two years in prison. Inside the law is language that many have viewed as basically outlawing online poker in the Russian Federation save for the “gaming zones” previously established.

One of the clauses of Bill 478806-6 states that “conducting gambling with play equipment outside the gambling area, or by using information and telecommunications networks, including the internet, as well as means of communication, including mobile communications, or without obtaining permission in accordance with established procedure on the activity of the organization and conduct of gambling in the gambling zone is punishable.” This implies that use of the internet to play on unregulated sites outside of the Russian Federation could see a Russian citizen fined or jailed for their conduct.

If Russian authorities actually enforce the new laws, the resulting departure of online poker players from the country would have a significant impact on global online poker play, according to PokerScout. Prior to Black Friday, US traffic on PokerStars accounted for 26.8% of the site’s business; as of 2013, the Russian Federation makes up 17.4% of PokerStars’ current business.

PokerScout made some ominous predictions regarding the state of online poker worldwide if Russia departs the online scene. “Most online poker sites are obligated to comply with increasingly strict licensing and regulatory requirements in Europe… It appears unlikely that top operators will be able to remain in Russia much longer” with the current laws in place, PokerScout stated. Furthermore, “the departure of major operations from Russia could virtually ensure that 2015 is a down year for online poker” if the newly passed laws are put into effect.

PokerScout’s Scouting Report is a daily newsletter for the online poker industry, with in-depth data and analysis of the market. More information can be found by clicking here or contacting support@pokerscout.com.

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