Pocketfives by the Numbers
Did you know Pocketfivers cashed for 173 million dollars since last July? Let me rephrase that, 173 million dollars in the tournaments we track alone. As the data flows in, we are able to get a picture of how the average (and not so average) Pocketfivers are doing compared to the rest of the field. People are generally drawn to Pocketfives because they have an above average interest in playing poker for profit. One could then assume that P5ers should do very well compared to the rest of the field, but does the data support that conclusion? Let’s take a closer look and find out.
If you look at the charts on the stats page, the first thing that jumps out is the increasing proportion of each category that P5ers seem to be taking home. We represent 1/5 of all cashes, 1/4 of all final tables and 1/3 of all tournament wins. That has to mean something, right? But what exactly? If you’re like me, and after staring at a bunch of numbers for more than a few minutes your head starts to swim, then beyond that it gets a bit complicated. Luckily I have access to a guy who eats integrals for breakfast, so I asked Riley to break it down for me.
Lenny: I’m going to take a stab at this. In the last month we tracked 4,451 top ten finishes among P5ers, so on average we can expect to finish first 445 times, but Pocketfivers finished first 550 times. That’s about 19% better than expected, but that seems too high, right?
Riley : No, what you're saying is right, including the 19%. P5ers are winning tournaments in which they make it to the top roughly 19% more often than the average player can expect to.
The average player can expect to win 1 of every 10 tournaments in which he makes it to the top 10. PocketFivers are winning 1 of every 8.18 tournaments in which they make it to the top 10 (8.18 being derived from the inverse of 544/4451, the numbers you gave).
Lenny: Wow, I was actually right! Is there anything else from the data that jumps out at you?
Riley : Well, when you look at these sorts of things, the bigger the sample size the better, so it’s better if you use the yearly statistics rather than just last month. Also, if you're doing this sort of comparison, you should compare number of cashes to top 10's, and then to 1st place finishes. The trend of taking a bigger piece of the pie on each of those steps is what's proving that Pocketfivers as a whole are better than average players.
Lenny: Ok, help me out. What would that involve?
Riley : Looking at the yearly stats at the time I'm writing, consider the 16,184 total tournaments tracked and the 182,859 total cashes by PocketFivers. The ratio of total top 10 finishes to total number of cashes is 161842/1152250 or 1 to 7.11
The average player can then expect to make the top ten 1 of every 7.11 times they cash. PocketFivers are making the top ten an incredible 1 of every 4.9 times they cash. That's with a 31% higher frequency than the average player.
Lenny: Wow, how about for tournament wins?
Riley : The average player can expect to WIN a tournament 1 of every 71.1 times they cash. PocketFivers are winning tournaments 1 of every 40 times they cash. That's with a 43.7% higher frequency than the average player.
From a stats perspective then, Pocketfivers are 31% more likely to place in the top ten and 43.7% more likely to win a tournament than the average online tournament player who is cashing.
Another thing that occurs to me as I browse through the data from our stats page is this: in the tournaments we are tracking, 90 million dollars were awarded in prize pools last month. That’s not across all of online poker, but simply a select group of tournaments on a select few sites. The last 6 months? Four hundred million dollars awarded. What this says to me is that online poker is alive and well. It may not be growing as prodigiously as it did from 2003 until the Fall of 2006, but it is in no danger of going away any time soon. Poker is here to stay, and Pocketfivers are grabbing a huge piece of the pie.
So, next time you say Pocketfives PWNS, now you’ve got the data to back it up.
