Since State Senator Mike Kowall introduced an online gaming bill in April, Michigan has emerged as one of the most likely candidates to join Nevada, Delaware, and New Jersey as states with legal online poker.

That being said, Michigan’s nascency on this issue caught many of analysts and pundits off guard, which has created a cloud of uncertainty, and left them trying to gauge whether Michigan is a legitimate contender or if the whole thing is smoke and mirrors.

Here’s what we know about the situation in Michigan.

The Path Forward

Before online gambling can progress any further, the Michigan legislature is going to need to pass a budget. And considering the short space of time they have before summer recess (the legislature is scheduled to head home on June 16, and won’t return in full until September 7) it’s unlikely online gaming will be passed by the Senate before June 16.

Of note, the House calendar is different than the Senate calendar. If Senator Kowall’s online gambling is passed in the Senate before the summer recess, the House is scheduled to be in session on July 13 and August 3, and could, theoretically, pass the bill on either day.

If the Senate doesn’t pass the bill before they go on their summer break, the bill will remain active throughout, and the legislature will have until December 31 to pass it.

The bill will only become inactive at the end of the year, as any legislation pending at the end of a legislative period (in this case, December 31, 2016) is not carried over to the next legislative session. If online gambling isn’t passed by the end of the year it will need to be reintroduced by the next legislature in 2017.

Lame Duck Pros and Cons

Essentially, the key to this process seems to be getting the bill out of the Senate and over to the House for consideration. The most likely timeline seems to be in late November or December, following the current election cycle – particularly since the entire Michigan House of Representatives is up for reelection this year; the Senate is not.

The impending lame duck session could be seen as the perfect opportunity to pass online gambling.

On the other hand, the months-long delay could give the opposition voices – which will likely be bolstered by Sheldon Adelson and his Coalition to Stop Internet Gambling – the opportunity to mount a more cohesive attack against the bill.

Where is the Support and Opposition Coming From?

In an interview last month, Senator Kowall indicated the only real opposition to the bill was the typical anti-gambling crowd.

Considering their presence at the May 4 hearing, it appears PokerStars and their parent company Amaya are a key driver of this legislation. However, during the bill’s May 4 hearing, MGM and the state’s other commercial casinos declared themselves neutral to the bill.

This is somewhat concerning as MGM is one of the most vocal advocates for online gambling expansion, and offered their full-throated support for New York’s online poker bill, even though they don’t have a brick and mortar presence in the Empire State.

A strong voice of opposition is the state’s Attorney General Bill Schuette. Schuette has been a signatory on each of the letters that have been sent to Congress supporting a federal online gambling ban during his time as Michigan Attorney General.

Schuette has been somewhat quiet on his state’s current efforts to pass an online gambling bill. His current silence has led to the belief that his opposition is already baked into the bill, and of no real consequence to the current effort.