The Barclays
The first event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
Plainfield Country Club
Edison, NJ
7,012 yards, par 70

Greens are Poa annua, 7500 ft2 on average, stimpmeter at 13’.
122 bunkers, 4 hazards.

Top 100 in points play next week.

FedExCup Standings

Founded as the Hillside Tennis Club in 1890, it failed quickly because there was no money in tennis then either. Renamed in 1904 and turned into a golf course. Battle of Short Hills was fought here June 26, 1777 during Revolutionary War, first battle after US adopted Stars and Stripes as flag.

What we do care about is that they have only played here on the PGA Tour in 2011. That means we only have one year of course history to go from. Played as par 71 that year.

2011 – Dustin Johnson -19, -1, 6

They only played three rounds in 2011, and DJ still managed to shoot 19 under. They called the event due to Hurricane Irene.

The course received 18 inches of rain that week of the tournament in 2011 thanks to Irene, greens should play much tougher this year.

The winner of this event gets 2000 points, four times greater than a regular season victory. Spieth is so far ahead of everybody that only two players – Day and Bubba – can possibly pass him with a win this weekend. Spieth has six straight top 10s with 5 of those being top 4. Day has won 2 of his last 3 with a 12th.

120 of the top 125 that qualified will be playing this weekend. There are no alternates. Rory is resting his ankle again (I TOLD YOU HE WASN’T 100%), Oosty, Sergio, Molinari, and Goosen are also sitting out. Back in action from a broken hand is Chris Kirk. Ryan Palmer’s father passed away last week, he still intends on competing this weekend.

When I can’t study data on results at a course, I study the course.

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/the-barclays/course.html

https://course.bluegolf.com/bluegolf/course/course/plainfieldcc/aerial.htm#

The course is not particularly long. There are two 500 yard par 4s on the front that play as par 5s for members. The two par 5s on the back are both about 550 yards. There are trees but not many of them so accuracy won’t be as important making driving distance desirable, however driving distance certainly isn’t necessary to succeed here. The rough is thick so some combination of total driving seems to be the way to go. These guys should chew this course up, -10 was t24 through 3 rounds in 2011. Strokes Gained Tee to Green is paramount as usual and give me some SG:P. Guys who did well here in 2011 were also good scramblers, sand savers, and at hitting it close to the pin (prox). Par4 and Par5 scoring seems important.

Weather

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.5288&lon=-74.3693&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

Weather looks irrelevant this week.

Locals

Morgan Hoffman lives in Wyckoff, NJ, an hour away. That’s it.

Gophers

Spieth 12.6k – He’s the best. Similar lineup to last Milly Maker so we can expect similar ownership, especially with Day winning and being the highest owned. That means I will have lots of Spieth again. 6 straight top 10s… 3, 1, 1, 4, 10, 2. Pretty good summer. I like his price.

Day 11.5k – On fire. 1, 12, 1, 4, 9. Was 33% owned in last MM and won, we can expect similar ownership here. My 3rd ranked play behind Spieth and Koepka. 13th in 2011.

Rose 10.9k – I like him as a contrarian option. I have him ranked higher than DJ who should be pretty popular? Great form; 4, 3, 4, 6, 74, 27, 2. 6th here in 2011. Maybe Rose will be more popular than DJ. Either way both will be cheap as I see people going with Spieth or Day and then somebody like Koepka which leaves no room for anybody else above $9k.

DJ 10.7k – Won in 2011. 7, 53, 49, 2, WD, 13, 8. Looks good on paper.

Bubba 9.9k – I like him a lot. My 4th best play. Missed the cut here in 2011, 21, 2, 2, cut, 13, 1 lately.

Fowler 9.8k – I’m still off him. Too expensive, too popular, not as good as Watson or Koepka or Stenson.

Koepka 9.7k – Underpriced again he should go highly owned and rightfully so. Not a popular play that I will be fading. Excellent form.

Stenson 9.6k – Always goes under owned, he looks really good again this week. 25, 6, 40, 2, 27, 13.

Kuchar 9.3k – Another fine play. Great form; 7, 25, 7, 58, 2, 12, 26, 39. 2nd here in 2011. Usually goes overlooked.

Furyk 8.8k – Love his golf game, hate his fantasy point production. Not sure if he can go low enough to win this thing. Good bet to make the cut. Nice price. 52nd here in 2011. 30, 3, 4, 30, 42, and 5th.

Casey 8.7k – I like him. Doesn’t look like his course exactly, but he is in fine form. 3rd last week, 30th, 17th, 74th, 37th, 2nd, and 39th. Nice price.

Snedeker 8.6k – Imploded on Sunday preventing a nice finish. Nice price for a solid golfer. Set course record here in 2011. 3rd in 2011.

Hideki 8.5k – I completely faded him last week. He was popular and got cut. Gonna make him underowned this week and I like him at this price point. Remember he was more expensive than Koepka last week?

Adam Scott 8.4k – Okay I give up. He is broken. These greens are going to be slick too and I don’t like his chances on them.

Oosty 8.4k– Has withdrawn.

Mickelson 8.3k – Could show up this week. Stats are depressed from many weeks of not caring this season. 43rd here in 2011 and hasn’t missed a cut in a while.

Schwartzel 8.2k – Still no. He loses strokes putting. 142nd in proximity and 128th in scrambling. These greens and rough around them are going to eat him up.

Johnson 8.1k – I like Zach this week. Burned a bunch of people in the MM and his price has depressed.

Reed 8.1k– I’m for him. Nothing exciting lately but is always in the top 30. We know he can win and go low on courses like this, -19 in his win in Palm Springs?

Haas 8k – 24th here in 2011. Rounding into form, 6, 65, 24, and 4th after 3 straight MC.

Webb Simpson 7.9k – I like him, nice 6th place last week, 10th here in 2011. Nice pivot off Streb.

Robert Streb 7.9k – Cheap. Gonna be popular. Very good play.

Lingmerth 7.8k – Nope.

David Lee 7.7k – Ended his heater with a 43rd last week. Has been popular, still has made less than 2/3rd of his cuts this season. I’m off him.

Justin Thomas 7.7k– He’s my play. I thought he would be higher owned each of the last 2 weeks and I was wrong. He’s in fine form, 56, 18, 4, 5, 54 after 2 cuts.

Jimmy Walker 7.6k – Damn you Jimmy. I have been all over you the last couple of weeks and you hosed me. I know you can win though and you are only 7.6k now so I shall offer you redemption.

Ryan Moore 7.6k – I’m off him.

Horschel 7.5k– Was a good GPP play last week, got cut, isn’t one this week. Will probably make cut. Give me:

Keegan Bradley 7.5k – Great looking play. Cut here in 2011, form is a little off (61, 17, cut, 29, 39, 27, 8, 22), but cheap and good at golf. Most don’t like him.

Henley 7.5k – Nah.

Guys I Like Under 7.5k, In This Order:

Will Wilcox 7.2k – Free money Wilcox. Way too cheap.

Ryan Palmer, 6.8k – I’m worried about him though, his dad died last week. Couple of years ago his friend died, he played gangbusters that weekend. I’ll have some exposure.

Shawn Stefani 6.2k – Cheaper than… almost everybody.

Chris Kirk 6.5k – Coming back from a broken hand though, it’s hard to stay sharp at golf with a broken hand.

Pat Perez 6.5k –

Jason Bohn 6.9k

Brendan Steele 7.1k

Harris English 6.8k

Kevin Kisner 6.9k

Kevin Na 6.9k

George McNeill 6.2k

Charley Hoffman 7k