Three Hands Analyzed
As you probably all know, analysis of hands played is a big part of working on one’s game. Obviously, we pay a lot of attention to this part of the learning process at the 2CardsCollege training program. In fact, analysis of the hands by trainees is a good indicator for their coach on how well they’ve digested the new theoretical knowledge and whether they successfully apply it in their game.
The experts of 2CardsCollege has analyzed some hands by students of the first group to show you the importance of hand analysis:
Flop is a standard check, because there is no value bet. To bet for value against two opponents, we need our hand to have more than 33% equity against the opponent’s range of defense. A second pair on an A-high flop does not have it, so check is our only option.
We check the turn as well to let the opponent bet widely, maybe turn a pocket pair into a bluff if he plays it this way on the flop. As for the draws, which we want to collect value from, our opponent would often bet those since he would be betting almost all of his range. Against a passive opponent, we could have donked to prevent his draws from realizing equity.
This is why we bet the river after his check. The opponent’s line looks like AT or less. I think sets and straights should bet the turn since our range is capped and if we check/called the flop, the opponent wants us to pay when he has a strong hand. We can reduce the possibility of strong two pairs, straight, or a set to the minimum. Just 99 and Ts8s are his most likely holdings.
At the same time, he could check KJ or JT on the turn and the decision about calling should be based strictly on the opponent evaluation, which is how often he can turn showdown value into a bluff. Considering his river sizing, we can hardly beat anything. Besides, we block his range of hands, which he could have turned into a bluff. Therefore, I think bet/fold was the right decision by Hero.
First off, I want to note the pre-flop squeeze sizing. We are giving the opponent in position great odds to realize his equity, so squeezing more would be more reasonable.
I would also bet the flop more since MTT players are often inflexible to bet-sizing. Those who fold to bigger sizing would also fold to 30%. I mean floats with no backdoors and draws, but on this board texture, the opponent will call with almost any AX or each one that has a gutshot.
He will also call widely with backdoors and overcards to a flush, raise or call weaker pocket pairs and flush draws, so we are favorites in equity considering that with hands like TT+ the opponents will mostly try to stack off pre-flop. TT calls a little more often, JJ less often, QQ+ usually shoves.
Considering everything said above with respect to opponent’s range of defense, we should definitely bet more on the flop. In addition, we want to have the turn SPR, which allows us to push without overbetting, or check/push like Hero did, but only if the opponent floats often and would not check behind with strong and weak draws to realize his equity free.
At the same time, I think the opponent should bet this turn a lot since we often miss this board due to the wide range of squeeze. I guess both lines are all right, but in both cases, we need to bet more on the flop. Against a regular, the given hand was a cooler.
An interesting hand. First, I hope this opponent was a good one for 3betting, at least high fold to 3bet or continuation bet. He should be a compliant one, so we do not lose extra chips out of position in a bloated pot.
I like Hero’s line. I think there are two ways to play in this spot: check/folding flop or getting ready to triple barrel since no one usually folds to one or two, but should often fold the river. The opponent is going to have a wide range on the river due to getting through flop and a turn, which his range of defense would hit better.
Although there is a nuance in a triple-barrel line, which may be tricky for us depending on how we play the nuts, which is a second 8. Barreling this card looks very strong and we are representing a strong range.
For example, I would often check the non-club 8 turn with strong pocket pairs not to narrow my range too much since I know the second barrel into this card looks strong. This is very image-dependent, but it is the 8 of clubs that we need to continue on, since the opponent is unlikely to have a turn raise range and if the flushes do not get there on the river, he would often fold, which improves our triple-barrel line equity due to increased fold equity.
Do you want to find out in more detail how the proper hand analysis is done? Post your own hands in this threador send it to mail@2cardscollege.com (you should specify your login on PocketFives in the subject line) and our coaches will analyze 5 of the more interesting ones every week!
In order to facilitate the process, please post the hands in a converted format (using converters like weaktight.com or similar). Links to the posted hands or screenshots from the hand viewer in Holdem Manager are okay too. We will accept your hands for review from today and our coaches will have the analysis ready for you within a week from receipt.
