Who to Target and Who to Fade on FanDuel: Week 15

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This week’s FanDuel Sunday Millionoffers 91,954 contestants the opportunity to vie for $2 million in prizes, with 17,475 (19%) earning prize money. Before we get into this Sunday’s card, let’s take a look back at Week 14’s results. Player jrdcoltstook down the $250,000 top prize with a score of 207.4 points; in this $60,000 salary cap tournament, his team accumulated an average of 3.45 points per $1,000 of salary. Sign up for FanDuel here and maybe you’ll be this week’s winner!

Among the top 20 finishers in Week 14’s tourney, the squads break down as follows:

– 16 of 20 used a QB/WR teammate combo
– 17 of 20 owned WR Julius Jones
– 7 of 20 bought the Ryan/Jones Falcons combo
– 8 different QBs were represented in the top 20

In last week’s column, we recommended the following Targets, with mixed results:

– Winners: QB Russell Wilson, WR Charles Johnson, WR Doug Baldwin
– Losers: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Mark Ingram, TE Delanie Walker

Our Fades were on the mark, as we snubbed Drew Brees, Tre Mason, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, two of them being very highly owned busts.

As mentioned last week, we’re looking to do the following:

– Isolate good value plays based on game flow projections
– Fade highly owned players that you can make a case against
– Pair up your QB with a receiver teammate

Your $60,000 salary cap fills nine positions: (1) QB, (2) RB, (3) WR, (1) TE, (1) K, (1) DEF

On to Week 15:

TARGETS:

– QB – Derek Anderson ($5,000): Week 15 salaries at FanDuel were set prior to Newton’s accident, making Anderson the obvious value play at the QB position. A repeat of the 18.2 points he put up on September 7th against these same Buccs would produce a solid 3.64 point/$1,000 return. Even if you don’t love him here, the opportunity to load up elsewhere makes this salary relief play a tempting target.

– QB – Eli Manning ($7,500): Despite being up $200 from last week, I still like Eli here, facing a Redskins defense that has been incredibly generous to the opposing QB this season. He’s had a number of fantasy performances in 2014 that hit 3x value, including his biggest day of the year against this very defense. On a day where Johnny Manziel and Derek Anderson will see heavy usage, Mr. February flies slightly under the radar.

– RB – Isaiah Crowell ($6,500): This looks like a week to spend the money on the top-level RBs, but if salary relief is needed at your RB2, you might want to feed the Cro. Cincy has been giving up big fantasy numbers to RBs all year, and with the focus on Johnny Manziel and Josh Gordon, he presents an interesting option who will be lightly owned.

– WR – Martavis Bryant ($6,800): Another player coming in off a $200 salary increase, he presents the home run potential that you look for in huge-field tourneys. Everyone knows that Atlanta can be attacked through the air, but they are particularly weak against a team’s #2 WR. CB Desmond Trufant can bring the fight to anyone, even a stud like Antonio Brown. Ben should find easy pickings looking the other way once Bell establishes the run.

– WR – Sammy Watkins ($7,200): In a game against the high-powered Packers featuring an O/U of 50.5, this is my favorite contest play on the field in Buffalo. Green Bay is hitting the road off a short week and their defense, which has been welcoming to opposing passing games all season, has really been in the holiday spirit of late. I don’t think I trust Orton enough to roll him here, but Watkins will be given touches by any means necessary.

– WR – Marquess Wilson ($4,500): Slots into Brandon Marshall’s spot and up against a Saints defense that leaves something to be desired. He seems to be the sharp play and he’s priced to go; add in the MNF sweat and he will sport an ownership percentage that would make Frampton Comes Alive jealous. Who? Look it up.

– TE – Larry Donnell ($5,200): Down $100 and just in time for Christmas, with the part of Santa being played by Skins DC Jim Haslett. 7/54/3 in the first matchup and Washington hasn’t gotten any better against opposing TE since. Move over, Hess Truck.

– Honorable Mention: TE – Kyle Rudolph ($5,100) – Detroit has been under-the-radar-poor versus TE.

FADES:

Green Bay Packers: Short week off a long, high scoring affair, the Pack now travel out of conference to face a Buffalo defense that has been rock solid all year, both on the ground and in the air. GB has the studs, but in a GPP, let’s fade them in this spot and find better matchups.

– QB – Joe Flacco ($8,100): Jacksonville has been improving weekly against opposing QBs and both Smith Jr. and Smith Sr. are hobbled.

– QB/WR Combo Play – Andy Dalton ($8,200)/ AJ Green ($9,000): Cleveland has been solid, if not spectacular against opposing QB/WR and with the combo up $300/$200 respectively, the value isn’t there. Fade both.

– RB – Andre Williams ($6,900): Redskins have their share of problems, but stuffing the run is one of the few that they don’t have. Way up in price ($400) and facing a much better run defense, we want no part of this.

– WR – Doug Baldwin ($6,300): Last week’s hero, but DFS is a fickle friend. Once again, if you missed the wedding, don’t show up for the funeral. Up $800 and facing a still-solid pass defense, let the memories of Sunday past destroy the next guy’s budget.

– Dishonorable Mention: RB – Ryan Mathews ($7.600) – Up $500 and facing a situation where an early deficit may make him a game flow casualty.

As always, keep an eye on the late weather and injury reports, and good luck to all those playing the week 15 Sunday Million.

If you don’t have a FanDuel account, sign up through PocketFives by clicking hereand get a generous deposit bonus plus access to 5,000 one-day leagues each week! Plus, play in this week’s Sunday Million, which has a $2 million prize pool. Get started.

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