This week’s FanDuel Saturday Millionis offering up $2 million in prize money, with 91,954 entrants competing for the $200,000 top prize. Payouts will be issued to 19% of the field (17,475 places), so get in the playoff spirit and claim your share! In last week’s Wild Card round, jerstein took down first place with a score of 149.66. Sign up for FanDuel here!

As in all large field GPP’s, in roster construction, we are looking to do the following:
– Isolate good value plays based on game flow projection
– Fade highly owned players that you can build a case against rostering
– Pair up your QB with a receiver teammate

On FanDuel, you have a $60,000 salary cap to fill nine positions: (1) QB, (2) RB, (3) WR, (1) TE, (1) K, (1) DEF

Let’s dig in:

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND (O/U = 47.5)

Lots of playoff wins on the field in Foxboro in the matchup that kicks off this weekend’s action. Believers in the Joe Flacco ($7,800) magic get significant price relief; he’s down $800 this week. The Pats’ biggest defensive flaw is vs the opposing TE; in a week where everyone will be on Gronk, Owen Daniels ($5,100) represents a strong contrarian play.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore’s defense has consistently stuffed the run and that would be good enough for me to look elsewhere for a RB on most occasions, but not this time. You have to gamble on high-variance plays to ship a GPP, and LeGarrette Blount ($5,700) fits the bill on multiple levels: he is low priced, will be relatively lightly owned for a four-game card, and Bill Belichick is a master dictating the pace of a game regardless of opponent trends. Of course, you’re taking a Pats RB, so this is a gamble.

Brandon LaFell ($6,800) is a solid play against the suspect Ravens’ secondary. Gronk ($7,900) will be a very popular plugin, but I think we can zag here and make up the points elsewhere should he go off.

CAROLINA AT SEATTLE (O/U = 39.5)

The lowest projected total of the weekend by a healthy margin; the Seahawks defense is just top-notch everywhere you look. I want no part of Carolina, but for those braver than I, Cam Newton ($7,700) is the cheapest QB available.

In terms of Carolina’s defense, opposing fantasy QBs and WRs got their share this year, so both Russell Wilson ($8,200) and column favorite Doug Baldwin ($5,900) are viable plays. Marshawn Lynch ($8,900) is likely to get in the end zone and would be a solid cash game play, but the chance of this getting out of hand quickly and a need to eat clock and keep a high-octane offense off the field next week (Dallas or Green Bay) makes me very worried that Robert Turbin will play vulture at some point.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY (O/U = 53)

As is the case for any game in Green Bay in the winter, check the weather forecast. Green Bay’s defense has trended this season similarly to Carolina’s; you can throw the ball on this unit. Due to the appearance of Rodgers, Manning, and Brady on the weekend slate, Tony Romo’s price ($8,600) has dropped $400 off last week. His owners will be rolling out the combo play with Dez ($9,000). DeMarco Murray ($8,900) presents an expensive, but reliable, RB option. After the big noise Terrance Williams (up $700 to $5800) made last week, the tourney play here might be Cole Beasley ($5,300), who promises to be relatively forgotten in the recency bias stampede.

The Packers have solid plays all over the place against a Cowboys defense that is decent, yet isn’t exactly the ’85 Bears. MVP Aaron Rodgers ($9,700) is the highest ticket item on the board and he has as high of a floor as you can find; he probably a better cash game option than a tourney play.

Eddie Lacy ($8,400) could very well be the leading RB scorer on the card should GB get out to a two-score lead, which they’ve done consistently at home all year. It is difficult to pinpoint which stud WR will have the big game each week, but Dallas’ tendency for giving up the big play leads me towards Jordy Nelson ($9,000) over Randall Cobb ($8,600). Dallas has been poor versus opposing TEs this season, so Richard Rodgers ($4,600) represents a contrarian play for the boldest; he caught five passes in Week 17, and has two TDs since mid-November.

INDY AT DENVER (O/U = 54)

I could actually see Andrew Luck ($9,600) as an under-owned contrarian play due to his huge cost and the concern over facing the extremely solid Denver corners. Believers get TY Hilton ($8,400) at a $500 discount. Hakeem Nicks ($5,400) makes for a tempting WR3. After his terrific showing last week, Dan Herron ($6.100) figures to get plenty of attention. I’m guessing that everyone who is fading the Indy downfield passing attack is instead using Herron. He is the toughest call on the card; massively owned, but at his price if you fade and he goes off, you’re probably in huge trouble for anything but a min-cash.

Did the bye week work wonders for Peyton ($9,100)? Facing the most exploitable defense left standing, it’s best to forget the late season noodle-arm adventures and give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s $600 cheaper than Rodgers and has just as high of a ceiling, making him the better tournament play.

Demaryius Thomas ($9,100) is explosive and gets plenty of targets; those who are worried about a Vontae Davis lockdown have Emmanuel Sanders ($8,500) as a juicy alternative. I think CJ Anderson ($8,700) gets timeshared a bit with Ronnie Hillman ($5,700) and am taking a stand against here. Julius Thomas ($5,500) is a likely play of those looking for the salary relief/upside alternative to Gronk. I think he’s too highly owned as a result, no thanks.

Check the weather everywhere and best of luck to all those playing the Saturday Million. Sign up for FanDuel here!