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Milking the fish

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I've been listening to guys analyze their betting during a hand and discussing why certain hands will be folded according to the betting. They talk about people folding middle paired hands, top paired hands with mediocre kickers, straight and flush draws etc.... is this only limited to players who are good? I've been getting crushed by people playing insanely questionable hands in horrible positions and situations and just not folding. I was recently playing a $500 guarantee on Merge, approaching the last 25% of the field (175 down to 40) I was 3rd in chips. I raised pre-flop to 2395, 2.4x the BB from middle position with 8's. The BB called with 10k behind. The flop came K 5 2 rainbow. He checked and I bet 2/3 pot about 4100 and he shoved. I was pretty committed and felt if he had any A paint, suited A, or pair he would have shoved pre, so I called. To my horror he showed K 6 offsuit and took down the hand. I know I should have folded to his raise based on all that I've learned over the past few months, but part of me just had to see what I was losing to. I asked him how he made that call preflop, and he went on to discuss pot odds and that with a raise like that, he would call with any 2 preflop. Herein lies my problem. Aren't I supposed to be holding up against players like this? Aren't those players supposed to play crappy hands and have me hold up? I know I'm going to get sucked out on from time to time....but i always seem to find that guy who decides to not think about anything and hit his hand regardless of the situation and cripple me. Same dude ended up shoving preflop for 19 bigs a few hands later and I called with A 10 suited. He had 9's and of course, he held up. Things like this happened to me all night, yesterday, the day before, the day before that. I guess I just need to fold more? I feel like when I start to question my aggressive play and change my game, I miss huge opportunities to pick up chips. I could use some help here. Hopefully I can get some coaching from a pro or something....

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This first hand just goes to show what a bitch variance really is.... In MP/LP you want to raise around 2.5x the BB, which seems to be the norm nowadays in MTTs. You WANT the BB to feel like they are priced in to call since they'll miss the flop around 75% of the time. My suggestion here would maybe C-Bet a little smaller say around 3.1k and save yourself the extra 1K when he shoves. Without any real reads here on your villain its really hard to range him here on the flop. The worst ever leak is knowing when you're beat yet "you have to see what he has" In the big picture would calling there really win you the tournament? No of course not. This maybe the spot where a fold is the obv answer even when you feel you are getting the "odds of calling". This needs to be based off your stack size as well not just his. W/O any real reads here on your opponent its very hard to say what the "right" play was. Now with his stack size and his call preflop this is a huge leak on his part since he is going to miss the flop a majority of the time. Yes its fishy and yes those are the people we like to play against since there aren't too many left here. IN the long run 8s will beat K6 a majority of the time so there is nothing wrong with being on the other side of variance. It happens to everyone. You just gotta keep making the best decisions you can.

 

Now for your call with A10s on a 19 big shove we need to know more of the dynamics of the table besides that one hand. What was his Position? What was yours? What were the effective stack sizes? Did he open shove a lot? Really the way it reads now this is a major spew/tilt call with A10s and these need to be avoided if you want to make it deep in tourneys. I don't really post a ton on here I just felt compelled to send a little insight your way. I too play on Merge and I just wanted to reach out to a fellow post-BF US player. I hope this helps and good luck on the tables.

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