1. Had a hand during the MGM PPO Main that I would like to get some feedback on. The hand was between me and a local Pro. We have a little history, I ran a big bluff on him in a WPTDS event, shoved on him on the turn after he had a 1/4 of his stack in the middle, got a fold and showed my bluff. Also in a WSOPC ME, when there was a min raise and 4 calls, Pro makes a big 3bet on the button and when it gets back around to me, I shove and have him covered forcing him to fold.

    So to the hand: we are in level 3, blinds at 75/150 and everyone around the 50K starting stack, MP raises to 300, button calls, I (SB) call with 7d7h and PRO (BB) calls. Flop: Q97 rainbow. Board is coordinated, so I donk bet 1k to make them pay for chasing a draw. Pro 3bets me to 3200 and the other two fold. I’m running through my mind what is his hand range to 3 bet me here, especially with two left to act behind him. Because he just called from the BB, I think he may have 99, 2 pair or at least a Q and wants to get rid of drawers. I just call. Turn: another Q. I check and he bets 10K. I go into tank but decide to call (initially was gong to check/raise to 22K). I have played in quite a few tourneys with him, and he is what I would call tight/aggressive, but not super agro. He doesn’t rebuy 5 or 6 times like some of our counterparts. River is a 6, no flush draw on board, would make a straight for 8T but I’m full. I decide to just check and he shoves all in for about 40K. I go deep into the tank for maybe 5 minutes. Think about what I can beat and more importantly, what I can’t beat, which is Q 9/7 or 6, and 99.

    Is there anyway I can fold here?
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  2. Because of the history you have with him I dont think you can fold theres a few hands that beat you but many your way ahead of. His range should be damn near any two given the mini raise and the odds hes getting I would think with 99 he may reraise so that leaves us with Q9 or Q7,Q6 that beat us. If he has 1 of those hand unlucky for us but I wouldnt fold.
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  3. BB flatting range here can be very wide.

    Pre flop Pot = 1200 (probably some some small antes too) - 4 players.

    Think your donk and flat line on the flop looks fine - (Pot now = 6.4K)

    Think a high % of villain's will normally just flat our flop donk bet here if they are holding 99, (QQ gonna 3bet pre here again a high percentage of the time, but some better villains will put it into their flatting range every now and again for deception).

    I agree with most of your flop assessment as to his likely range for raising us.

    Queen on turn and he now bets 10K into 6K pot?

    This sort of doesn't make too much sense.....

    Yes, he can have Qx here but why polarise overbet and risk losing us if he 'really' has it?

    I think the general population would bet closer to around the half pot mark here if they'd really just turned trips (or better).

    (Like both your flat and XR thoughts about what we do next here).

    We flat and then check the river, our villain now jams us?

    I just don't see how we can get away from this.

    His flop raise can include some 2P's for sure.

    Why would he now overbet any flopped 2P's on the turn if he had just boated?

    (97 might do something like this to try and sort of 'rep' that Queen and discourage us from continuing).

    There is nothing in his line here throughout this hand to 'convince' us that he has us beat.

    If he's overbet the pot on the turn with a boat then fine (but I wouldn't believe that line), he's possibly got some Qx trips (but again these hands don't 'normally' overbet the turn for fear of losing us).

    The only Qx that makes any sort of 'sense' for him jamming the river and that now beats us with is Q6.

    If he's rivered us with a 6 outer than there's not a lot we can do.

    We're stacking him way too much in this spot to ever be folding, given that his line throughout it just doesn't make too much sense.

    Cheers.

    Carl.

    **If he raised the flop with 99 then him overbetting the turn would make way more sense, especially if he was assigning us some sort of Qx (obviously one that he's hoping has not boated).

    If he's got 99 then it's purely a cooler, we still cant 'realistically' ever be folding such a strong hand here.
    Edited By: carlmellor 1 Week Ago at 01:23 PM
     
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