1. Hey all, first time posting on this site.

    Quick background about me: been playing poker for over 10 years. 7 years in a poker league playing at least 4 nights a week, and have been playing on pokerstars over the last 2 years.

    So I starting playing on stars in 2015. Pretty minor until 2016 when I cashed a little over a grand. Played some spin and go's and hit big a couple times and got to over $3000. Cashed out $1000, and soon after the madness started :/

    I noticed I started going on a ridiculous bad run. Seamed like no matter how much I got my chips in good, I'd lose. Eventually I started taking screenshots of all my ridiculous beats and looking back on all the pics, it's almost mind boggling. Generally I'm the guy who will tell you well that's poker, it's gonna happen, everyone will run bad, varience will even it out, we always remember the ones we lose, etc etc. But it just seamed so ridiculous I felt like I was playing poker at a casino slot machine.

    My last game of 2016, I was playing a spin and go. Right off the bat buddy takes out the other player in 2 hands back to back, first with quads and then a straight flush. I'm thinking great someones running good im toast. So we start playing, I'm not getting much of anything so I'm virtually checking to the river most of my hands. The thing is, so was the guy who was beating me. He was not betting and just taking down hand after hand. The funny thing is, he was getting no less than 2 pair every hand. I don't know if he was checking all along because he was in shock of how great he was running and wanted to keep it going, or just mocking me lol. Anyways, it gets down to my final hand, I'm big blind with 2 blinds left in total. I check to the river, which now I have 2 pair, so I min bet which puts me all in, of course he calls and has a flush, and turned a straight anyways. So, with that said, I decided yeah I'm getting destroyed here and I decide to take a break until this year.

    If you're still reading by this point I appreciate it. Now to the meat and potatos of it all, and to my threads title.

    So, I start playing again this year and right away I start noticing the same thing, I just keep seaming to lose despite getting it in good. I run bad for a while like this and decide this time, I'm gonna try something and screenshot every single time I go all in, win or lose, to capture what the outcome is. So that is what I did after months of playing I ended up with 203 screenshots of all my all ins. The majority of the pictures were either all in pre flop, or on the flop. Some on the turn. This is what I ended up with, and keep in mind I only recorded these 203 screenshots after I already noticed for a while the horrible run.

    I won: 18/203 all ins

    I was the favorite: 148/203 times*
    *favorite not including coin flips where I have a pocket pair and they have two overs and need to hit. I either have them dominated, a higher pocket pair than theirs, I have a pocket pair and they have one over, I hit and they need to draw out or hit their second whole card or trip up, etc

    Actual coin flips: 25/203 times

    In total if you count the coin flips, I was 50% or better 173/203 times. Yet I only won 18 of those all ins. 18 all ins depsite being a favorite 72% of the time, and at least 50% to win 86.7% of the time. Yet out of all those all ins I only won 8.87% of them.

    I just don't get it. If I'm gonna run deep in a tournament let's say, seams like the only way that's gonna be possible is if I can low ball every hand and somehow stopping my oppenents from shoving, and defintely not shoving myself. It seams like ANY time I go all, and someone calls, whatever cards needs to come, and if you've played poker long enough that's generally the first thing you do is see what they need to beat you once the cards are shown, they just end up coming. People are snap calling me with horrible hands, things I used to love about playing with fish, but now, I cringe when I get the chips in even if I show the nuts, because if theirs cards to come, I just can't seam to avoid what they need to beat me.

    Hell, one of the last tournaments I played for example, the flop comes 33K rainbow, and I have KJ versues 10 7. I push all in, they tank for like 30 seconds and then call. Turn is a 10, river is a 10. Lol it's like what the hell is going on here, I just don't get it anymore. They didn't even have a backdoor flush or straight draw, if they did, it wouldn't even surprise me to lose that way since I can't seam to avoid runner runners destroying me like this.

    I love poker, and unfortunately I can't play live cards as often as I like to anymore, which is why online poker is amazing to me. But man, this stuff is just making it hard to keep playing in a hobby I love.

    If you managed to read this whole thing, I greatly appreciate it and look forward to seeing what you think. Is varience going to sink in at some point and eventually I'll be winning 189/203 all ins next time or what? :D Just doesn't feel likely at this point. I don't mind losing the money, I'm paying for something I love to do, but I'd like to win when I play games too, especially when I'm clearly getting my chips in when I know I'm best, at least I'm not making bad calls and losing because of it.

    Thanks!

    Edit: I'd like to point out as well I still manage to do well at times and run deep in some tournaments, but only if there's no all in fest going on. Prime example would be yesterdays tournament.

    Played a $27 tourney with about 8000 people. Got down to the final 200, without getting put all in or going all in. This was on a 4 seater even where the action is higher. My last hand, I turn 2 pair with a flush draw, guy bets, I go all in, bam, river comes and pairs the board giving his over pair a bigger 2 pair than mine, and I'm out. Obviously I did well and got about 10 times my buy in, but yeah the all ins it seams like whatever they need, their getting it :/
    Edited By: killabee24 May 24th, 2017 at 11:57 PM
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  2. https://www.boomplayer.com/24022411_6E5FC42AB4

    just part of the game but i think most will say its not really a big sample though no offence
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  3.  
    Originally Posted by 07keith View Post

    https://www.boomplayer.com/24022411_6E5FC42AB4

    just part of the game but i think most will say its not really a big sample though no offence

    Maybe, but that's a lot of all ins for one person, at least to me. And as you can see the majority I lost, which also knocked me out. So just picture playing almost 200 tournaments and how long that would take, how many games that really is for one person, and getting knocked out almost everytime after turning over the best hand. I dunno I know a lot of people who blow their bad runs out of proportion, but man that's a lot of games. And those statistics are only after I decided to document the bad run I was having. You gotta figure thats 1 or 2 tournys a day for almost 6 months, and getting knocked virutally every single time as soon as I'm all in, regardless of how much better my hand is

    An 8% win rate when you're 50% or better to win 88% of the time, over 203 all ins seams extremely improbable :/

    I would get running bad for 6 months, in a different sense, where you're just not winning much, getting bad hands, not able to cash, what have you, but to run bad for 6 months when you're showing the best hand almost every single time just seams crazy. And if I had the patience to recreate every single hand so you could visibly see each loss, it would be mind boggling. Just think of all the people who post their bad beats here and how crazy it seams to them, their minds would be blown if they saw how many bad beats they could see someone take over 203 all ins

    I appreciate the reply, and no offense to you as well, but saying it's part of the game just doesn't sit well with me. Getting beat by 1 or 2 outers from time to for sure, part of the game. But imagine losing to 1, 2 or 3 outers consistently over 200 tournaments to take you out. Statistically that's just not normal to me. Keep in mind, I'm not just counting the times i've lost which is what people generally do, I'm comparing it to the times I've won and how often, with how frequent I'm the favorite

    Imagine flipping a coin 203 times and getting heads 18 times lol. And that's showing a 50/50 chance only. It doesn't even represent the majority of the time I was the favorite

    Keep in mind too, when I say favorite, I'm not just comparing the 2 hands before the cards are drawn and then I end up all in, I'm saying I'm the favorite at the point of when all the chips go in. For example, in my statistics, if I had AK and they have AJ, and the flop is AJ2 and THEN the all in is made, I'm not counting that as me being the favorite in the spot, out of the 203 all ins. I marked that as me being behind, which as you can see, wasn't very often
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  4. The sample is too small to be meaningful but I infer from what you have written that you might be leaning towards an irrational explanation of events, i.e. the Cashout Curse/ Doomswitch theorem.
    3
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  5. Well said! as there is some more i wanted to add to my first post but it never got there so i was just going to add that if your a serious player this is a very small sample size for you but if you just a fun player its pretty bad i would agree! just keep pluging away and sit down with some more confidence and forget about the bad beats heres a game im in now and heres my proper play both times crushed but ill do the same again and again and it will fall my way best of luck rungreat.... im gonna come bk hopefully because of good play. not tilt or being results orientated!!

    https://www.boomplayer.com/24034346_62E8B5EDC3
    https://www.boomplayer.com/24034533_FEC2804D2D

    glgl
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  6. even managed to climb back some and booom i get roasted so there you go pal thats 3 allins in 1 game and i lose each 1 happens to us all hope its some consolation gl

    https://www.boomplayer.com/24034790_85211DFE61
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  7.  
    Originally Posted by cage View Post

    The sample is too small to be meaningful but I infer from what you have written that you might be leaning towards an irrational explanation of events, i.e. the Cashout Curse/ Doomswitch theorem.

    im pretty new here and i take it you frequent the board fairly often, where people say a lot of crazy things, so it may only be natural you'd wanna peg me as thinking something's rigged or I'm thinking some other conspiracy is behind it :)

    But I refuse to think there is a doomswitch as it would be more profitable for a site to pass the money around back and forth between the players taking their cut each time, rather than having someone quit the site because they don't want to deposit anymore.

    To be honest, even though I wanted to vent a little, I was expecting a contrarian response no matter what I said, that's just how the internet on any forum seams to be. I dunno maybe it is a small sample size, but if those were live games say for my poker league, that would be virtually a full year of playing 4 nights a week, losing almost every single time when you're all in with the best hand.

    I would get an 8% win rate being a small sample size if it were a few dozen times maybe, but over 200 all ins when we're talking about one person, feels like a lot to me. And again, this is after I was already running bad and started recording it. 18 wins out of 203 all ins in general maybe in itself on the smaller side, but keep in mind I'm adding the fact I was a minimum 50% favorite to win 88% of those all ins. Hence the title of my post, that just seams statistically extremely bad.

    What would be a good sample size? Because I'll keep going lol. I got about another 14 all ins to add, each of which I was the favorite once the chips were pushed in, and lost each one of them. And these all in calls I'm telling you, I see people on here posting bad beats just the one or two times they've had them. If you saw how each of my hands played out everytime on top of it all, it's not just losing the hand, it's losing in horrible ways

    But again, that was a sincere question, what would be a good sample size would you say? Because I'll keep going, I'm kinda in the habit now of snapping a screenshot at the end of all my all in hands anyways

    Appreciate the response
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  8. Oh no worries there, I never tilt. Can't play in a poker league for as long as I have where people are drinking and by the end of the night call your all in with 7 2 and crack you're aces just cause lol. I'm immune to that.

    And like I said, it's not like I don't place well, or else I just wouldn't even bother if my money was just draining away, it's just the moment I'm in an all in situation, like the one you posted below, ends the exact same way. Imagine those kind of beats, and worse, almost every single time you're all in, spread over almost 200 games. My luck seams so off that's just a typical outcome for me haha
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  9. Here's my next 3 all ins, all losses of course. And I'm not talking about just the ones I lose, I'm literally saying my only 3 all ins. What's it been an hour since my last post? lol

    Under the gun limps in, everyone folds to me big blind, I check.
    Flop an ace high flush, I check, they go all in, because you know, people online can play horribly. Of course I call, he turns over KK. Turn and river K K. Horrible play by the guy too, didn't even have a spade in his hand.

    Next, I got ace rag, board is 10 10 Q A, guy goes all in, screw it I call, he's got Q8, river Q

    Lastly, I got AJ, J72 on the board, buddy checks, I bet, he goes all in, I call, he's got Q8 as well, turn 10, river 9.

    I can only laugh at this point, I just don't get it. The only thing that really gets me mad, is how horrible some people make plays and manage to suck out. I used to love playing against people this bad, but now, it just makes me kinda nervous, like I gotta dodge the world no matter what the damn hands are
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  10. you should add your screen name and post some hands from boom, and you will get some good feedback here you can learn alot from the top guys here there records speak for themselves, anyway hope it turns around glgl
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  11. "I can only laugh at this point, I just don't get it. The only thing that really gets me mad, is how horrible some people make plays and manage to suck out. I used to love playing against people this bad, but now, it just makes me kinda nervous, like I gotta dodge the world no matter what the damn hands are"

    Just sounds like your running bad mate, its always easy to remember the bad beats then it is
    to remember when we suck out, you just got to play with confidence and remember that we need to type of players in the game other wise we wouldnt make money if everyone was good lol another thing to
    think about, if you arent enjoying the game anymore maybe its time to take a few weeks break, when the fun stops, STOP! :) goodluck at the table
    Edited By: EireStyle May 27th, 2017 at 10:42 AM
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  12. Long story short - don't play big field tournaments. I'm running horrible this year but I still make money because I study the game every day. Play small sites and small field tournaments. If you really think you will be binking every third 8k field tournament then you are delusional.
     
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  13.  
    Originally Posted by Rihard4a View Post

    Long story short - don't play big field tournaments. I'm running horrible this year but I still make money because I study the game every day. Play small sites and small field tournaments. If you really think you will be binking every third 8k field tournament then you are delusional.

    Wasn't really what I was getting at
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  14.  
    Originally Posted by EireStyle View Post

    "I can only laugh at this point, I just don't get it. The only thing that really gets me mad, is how horrible some people make plays and manage to suck out. I used to love playing against people this bad, but now, it just makes me kinda nervous, like I gotta dodge the world no matter what the damn hands are"

    Just sounds like your running bad mate, its always easy to remember the bad beats then it is
    to remember when we suck out, you just got to play with confidence and remember that we need to type of players in the game other wise we wouldnt make money if everyone was good lol another thing to
    think about, if you arent enjoying the game anymore maybe its time to take a few weeks break, when the fun stops, STOP! :) goodluck at the table

    thanks man. And I agree 100%, I can remember bad beats from years ago like they were 2 hands ago, and could tell them point for point. In my little sample though, I was counting the wins too lol. And comparing them to the losses overall. But I'm glad you think I'm running bad lol, cause I know I sure do.
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  15.  
    Originally Posted by 07keith View Post

    you should add your screen name and post some hands from boom, and you will get some good feedback here you can learn alot from the top guys here there records speak for themselves, anyway hope it turns around glgl

    Thanks and I appreciate the feeback. Will definitely check it out, seams like a handy dandy tool for sure
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  16. you should it will help your game and as Eirestyle an excellent player said if your not enjoying the game when you sit down get away for a while study watch some vids and shrug off the beats if your good you will beat them in the long run when it really matters gl again RUNGREAT!!
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  17. I think your spot on there man but its just people are so fixated on the big win they get so upset after playing for so long and get AA busted they feel hard done buy but in reality Poker is no short term investment it takes time, beats, study, family, work and thats just the tip of the iceberg. my advice would be to go for the sit n go 180s perfect take your time its along game man my 2 gl.
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  18. Watch a few Tonka video´s on youtube, he may be able to inject some fun & laughter back into the game. He gets plenty of bad beats too.
    4
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  19. 10 mins into one, lol good stuff
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