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  2. hahhahah i was about to say there's no way that fold is possible....
    Edited By: MmachineD Jan 14th, 2012 at 04:17 AM
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  3. wtf?
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  4. this is the stupidest mistake that ever happened in a poker broadcast
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  5. Edited By: McBain74 Jan 14th, 2012 at 04:19 AM
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  6. sickest level by pokerstars.tv, he had K5, really you had me waking up my house shouting what a fold ... pricks
    Edited By: Marrs_aka_CB Jan 14th, 2012 at 04:19 AM
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  7. what the fck i was going ape shit there

    sick level
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  8. i will remember it as him folding K9 just for the epicness of the moment
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    Originally Posted by RedIceRap View Post

    i dont rly understand ur post, is that a question or are u saying the play was good?

    sure he had FE, but the fact that there was lots of passivity and pot controlling going on i felt like this was an insta muck. think he kinda outleveled himself by thinking villain cant call cause of that amateur still in the tourney, but obv villain is a good player and wont fold much there unless he's on a bluff, which is rather unlikely based on how he played so far. sure, im here and they're there, but if i ever would do it i prolly chose a hand without and A or a K, like QJs or even worse since i doubt villain calls off with AJ or maybe not even with AQ there. could be wrong, thoughts on this hand?

    well y was a question how many bb did they have to start with?
    As for your statment I mean thats just what FE is about so doenst matter he is dominated if FE is high enough. And he could be " flipping " vs aq or tt jj qq for sure. I mean julius is aware is capable of light rejams so he can 4 bet call off aq for sure no??? same with tt jj and qq where he still has one decent equity.
    Nowhere in this world I am criticizing his play, just trying to understand/analyse...
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    Originally Posted by Odyssey77 View Post

    As long as Diabella doesn't win, ugh that would be retarded. Guy plays quite bad. Some of the flats he's made make me want to vomit =/

    As for Jaka's shove, I think that while it's high variance, it's certainly a good spot for him to 5 bet light. Yes, Julius had only 4-bet twice, both times holding his value range, but there is an aggressive dynamic at work here (despite the table flow at the time being tight), and it's also common in this spot for Julius to come back with a small sized 4-bet, looking strong -- while his BU opening range is very very wide indeed.

    Jaka is obviously aware of this, and may have felt that this was the perfect time for Julius to be light; after all, the first 4-bet in these types of encounters is often more likely to be light (at least online, though this is a subjective point). Moreover, we can be sure that Jaka and Julius have a wealth of history outside of this final table, most likely earlier in this tournament, or even from previous online dynamics.

    It's easier to sit there and say "this shove is horrible" when you see the cards and can see that Julius is holding the immortal nuts for a spot like this. KJ isn't the greatest hand ever, but it does have two very relevant blockers, and to be fair, there is little inside Julius' value range that crushes Jaka. If we say that Julius' value range incorporates something fairly standard -- say 77+, AJs+, then there are really only a small amount of hands that have Faraz crushed.

    All Julius does is have to put in a small sized 4-bet to induce (I'm sure he's aware Jaka will never hood flat this 4-bet OOP in a huge ICM spot like this), and Jaka may hang himself, and he may fold. 4-bet shoving is clearly not the optimal play for Kyle, since he's only getting called by Jaka's value range (obviously a fold in this case). With what could be a tonne of fold equity, and a hand that doesn't do too awfully against Julius' value range -- I'm not surprised that an aggressive HS reg like Jaka found a ship here. Fold equity is a subjective thing -- you're always going to look like a hero when you get a fold here, and a "spaz" when you get called and you're crushed.

    Overall, amazing final table from both Jaka and Julius. Let's try not to be results orientated about this spot though, ok?

    man, jaka is very likely much better than me and also was sitting with these guys there for a long time so im sry if i said its horrible or something, i think i said smth like "i dont like it" which is ok imo. im not result oriented, and i didnt just post a random donk comment and also know why he did this, but he did it in a bad spot imo. ive watched sooo many FTs on stars.tv and in a lot of them there was just crazy 3- and 4-betting going on which makes this a standard shove. with the fact that everybody has been on the tighter side with the, let's call them 'x-bets', i think this was a bad spot. im not trying to flame him or anything and i really hoped that he wins since he deserved to, but im also here to learn, so i question that play. how can u say there is little in julius value range that crushes KJ??? do u think he will call with less than TT and AQ? i highly doubt it to be honest. especially with the third guy in the tourney who's worth like 500k for surviving and playing just straight forward for 1-2 hours...

    Originally Posted by flashdisastr View Post

    well y was a question how many bb did they have to start with?
    As for your statment I mean thats just what FE is about so doenst matter he is dominated if FE is high enough. And he could be " flipping " vs aq or tt jj qq for sure. I mean julius is aware is capable of light rejams so he can 4 bet call off aq for sure no??? same with tt jj and qq where he still has one decent equity.
    Nowhere in this world I am criticizing his play, just trying to understand/analyse...

    just read this after i posted to Odyssey77. so we 100% agree with his calling range of like TT+ and AQ+. i dont rly know how many BBs that was but 35 should be right. im just saying that i doubt he will turn a PP into a bluff and fold to a shove since he's never done this before. and i mean they see each other's hand with a 40 min delay? he should know that julius is not one of the crazy 4-bettor. with real history and in a tourney where there isnt some amateur who is worth 500k who plays pretty face up and gets lucky all the time this is rather standard. but here i simply dont like it. im also just trying to understand it, maybe i will like it if i hear some good reasons why this is profitable, but saying julius' value range is 77+ (value range for me is a range he's gonna call the shove with btw) is not a good reason.

    we have a new moneymaker...................

    and a pretty bad reader who bluffs with 9 high against someone who never bluffs and has a overwhelming chiplead and prolly call lighter anyway.

    was fun to watch, but i miss daize. think i just watch the last year's replay today again.
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  11. *huge rant* feel free to TLDR

    First of all, I'd say that I don't necessarily entirely like the play, I'm just pointing out that it's certainly not simple enough to say it's an "easy fold." I'm sure that there are many, many players who are far better than me who make a fold here all day in this kind of spot (I mean in terms of equity and ICM, rather than the dynamic between the players). I'm just interested in looking at the spot because I think it's interesting and not clear cut like the commentators seem to think it is.

    As for Julius' calling range, I'd say that it likely be lighter than AQ, TT+, mainly because he will know that Jaka is indeed capable of putting in a light 5 bet shove here. It seems ludicrous to me that Julius would fold 77-99 here, though perhaps his 4-bet calling range is going to be weighted toward more nutted hands that he would aim to induce a shove from Jaka with. That is to say that if he thinks Jaka is light here a tonne, and has a value holding of relative strength, say 77-99 and AJo, he may just 4-bet shove instead, as there are less hands that he crushes when Jaka puts in the 5-bet, and it's going to be correct but extremly high variance to call off with 77 after 4-betting, only to take a flip in a massive ICM spot. However, to me, 3-handed vs a competent, aggressive reg like Jaka, AJ and 77 are monsters, so I wouldn't even be surprised if Julius would play them in a similar way (4-bet to induce that is). Again, history between them is likely to go far beyond this spot, so we can't necessarily comprehend the leveling war at work.

    Clearly, fold equity is the biggest factor when considering whether or not Jaka's play makes money in the long run. It may be that it does under normal circumstances (say, on the FT of a $109 freezeout online), but with a shorter stack uninvolved who as you say plays very straight forward (and spewy, tbh), it could make it more of a fold. Again, I think there is a lot to be said for the fact that Jaka has two quite relevant blockers to Julius' value range, and that this is the first time that Julius has 4-bet Jaka, which seems pretty standard when he opens the button and is aware that Jaka is very capable of making a move.

    In the end, I like Jaka's play, because he's here to win, and he obviously had good reason to believe he had a lot of fold equity (guy gets it done, let's be honest here). If on any level I'd criticize it based on the fact that there is one player who is almost dead money remaining, and that a 3-bet / fold with KJo itself is a profitable but not high variance play (which the 5-bet is, obv) in the first case (mostly cause of good blockers).

    Finally, regarding what I said about there being little that crushes Jaka in his calling range, yeah I think I'm a little off there. All I really meant is that there are still some hands that he is flipping with, and only AK, QQ, JJ, KK and AA really crush him, which would be extremely unlucky on Jaka's part to run into the top 1-3% of Julius' range when he is likely opening close to ATC on the button. Also, for what it's worth, I ran it through stove, and if we consider Jaka's blockers, and that Julius will 4-bet call with AQ, 99+, then that represents just 5.3% of possible hands, rather than 6.6%, which would be the case if Jaka had, say, 67dd. Moreover, having a K and J blocker helps reduce the chance of KK and JJ, so really, it's going to be a massively rare situation that Julius holds either of these (though of course still possible).

    I could probably run a reship outcomes equation to show how often he needs Julius to fold for this to be profitable, but at a hunch I'd say without ICM he is certainly folding enough for it to be +EV. Bare in mind that Julius will need top 5% of the near 100% that he opens, so when he gets 3-bet here, he actually has a 4-bet calling hand maybe one in 20 times. Of course we can't say that he will always 4-bet light if he doesn't have that 5.3% here, but I think it's fair to say he will relatively often; and I'd venture that was something along the lines of what Jaka was thinking.

    All in all, he really couldn't have had better timing with AKo there
    Edited By: Odyssey77 Jan 14th, 2012 at 05:38 AM
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  12. There were like 3 4bets on the whole FT so far, it doesn't matter if i have stats on a player which say he plays 45/30 if i notice that he didnt play a single hand of the last 30 hands on the sunday million ft. That's basicly the same thing, all we know about julius is that he's good and that he's capable of doing it, but we didnt witness a light 4bet by him in over 8 hours of play, which makes this a very optimistic shove. There is a point where the leveling stops and the point of leveling yourself starts. Just like the final hand, was even worse and pretty suicidal. I dont want to sound like the best player in the world, im making the same plays i critize here myself sometimes. But i have to admit often afterwards that some spots arent just a cooler, they simply are mistakes which i did without having a good enough reason or forgot about icm.
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  13. Who won?
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    Originally Posted by sirjwab View Post

    Who won?

    John Dibella
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  15. Here is our recap of the 2012 PCA Main Event. Congrats to every P5er who cashed:

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