Final 2 tables, is this a punt or a spot we need to take?
  1. Just looking back at a key hand from a tourney I chopped HU last night.

    $5.50 deep stacks
    17 players remained.
    I had a major edge on my table.

    Two questions:
    1. Would you prefer a check call on flop?
    2. Given the flop raise that happened, do you prefer fold, call or raise?
    (I chose raise as if I call he shoves turn 95% of time, and I had so much equity)

    Looking back it seems a bit punty, (especially if he had KQdd), or is it just a spot I need to shove to go for the win?

    PokerStars Hand #176009564939: Tournament #2041469037, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXX (4500/9000) - 2017/09/23 23:09:41 NZT [2017/09/23 7:09:41 ET]
    Table '2041469037 7' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 2: Spiderchild (255491 in chips)
    Seat 3: Nightz Crush (312529 in chips)
    Seat 4: mpsfz (277701 in chips)
    Seat 5: tigr6291 (416276 in chips)
    Seat 6: BlAAck_mAmbA (163079 in chips)
    Seat 8: Shots_Fired9 (360985 in chips)
    Seat 9: RWQC88 (363164 in chips)
    Spiderchild: posts the ante 1125
    Nightz Crush: posts the ante 1125
    mpsfz: posts the ante 1125
    tigr6291: posts the ante 1125
    BlAAck_mAmbA: posts the ante 1125
    Shots_Fired9: posts the ante 1125
    RWQC88: posts the ante 1125
    tigr6291: posts small blind 4500
    BlAAck_mAmbA: posts big blind 9000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Nightz Crush [Td 7d]
    Shots_Fired9: folds
    RWQC88: folds
    Spiderchild: folds
    Nightz Crush: raises 10800 to 19800
    mpsfz: calls 19800
    tigr6291: folds
    BlAAck_mAmbA: folds
    *** FLOP *** [9d Qs 5d]
    Nightz Crush: bets 19512
    mpsfz: raises 43488 to 63000
    Nightz Crush: raises 228604 to 291604 and is all-in
    mpsfz: calls 193776 and is all-in
    Uncalled bet (34828) returned to Nightz Crush
    *** TURN *** [9d Qs 5d] [8c]
    *** RIVER *** [9d Qs 5d 8c] [3d]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Nightz Crush: shows [Td 7d] (a flush, Ten high)
    mpsfz: shows [Kh Qh] (a pair of Queens)
    Nightz Crush collected 574527 from pot
    mpsfz finished the tournament in 13th place and received $22.59.
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 574527 | Rake 0
    Board [9d Qs 5d 8c 3d]
    Seat 2: Spiderchild folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: Nightz Crush showed [Td 7d] and won (574527) with a flush, Ten high
    Seat 4: mpsfz (button) showed [Kh Qh] and lost with a pair of Queens
    Seat 5: tigr6291 (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 6: BlAAck_mAmbA (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 8: Shots_Fired9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: RWQC88 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Add Nightz Crush to Rail
  2. If you have the edge why not just use your edge rather than taking a punt, as it does look punty to me.

    Why: Sure you have a 10 high flush draw and a back door straight draw. But, when he raises, what does he have? I would be saying he has a good Q OR a better flush draw with or without a pair. He might be bluffing but this close to the final table on a $5 deep stacked table I´m betting he has a made hand & I´m not GII with this read.

    Just my thoughts though.
    Edited By: samj123 Sep 24th, 2017 at 07:18 PM
    + 3
    Add samj123 to Rail
  3. I wouldn't call it a punt because you do have a fair amount of equity when called against his range. But to samj123's point, you shouldn't be looking to play a big pot in this spot given stack depth and position. I'd also be interested to see any other stats you had on him, like Pre-flop Cold-Call %, 3b%, W$SD, etc. Things that can help us piece together whether he has a raise/fold range on this flop. Without any of that data in a sheer vacuum, I would not expect a player in this tournament to fold the flop after flatting pre and raising your cbet. For that reason I like betting 1/4 - 1/3 of the pot to see how he responds. Depending on the raise you may even be able to peel. Also you rep super strong and may get some turn check backs. I don't like check-raising flop for the same reasons I don't like your R/R. And check-calling doesn't make sense when you do have a strong hand like Qx+.
    + 2
    Add negrealanu to Rail
  4. I assume you've been fairly active...

    You opened 2.2x from CO with a suited 2-gap & got (insta?) called by the button.

    You have control and flopped a weakish flush draw so you c-bet. Up to this point everything looks pretty standard.

    Now your villain puts in a raise of about 1/3 of his remaining stack. At this point you know he's committed to a stroll down to the river and you are somewhere between a 2:1 dog if your flush is good and drawing stone cold dead if it's not.

    You then put in the bulk of your stack drawing somewhere between slim & dead, so from a pure math standpoint on this hand in isolation that's going to fairly substantially -EV. That said, this is tournament play not a cash game, in the money & close to the end, so other factors come into play. With 2 tables still in play, in the money and bust potential on both tables, there isn't an easy ICM calculation to do. If the pay structure is as steep as they usually are then the value of the stack a win gives you to improve your chances of a top 3 finish may well make it worth taking the -EV on this hand.

    It would help to know what the pay-out structure is to answer "punt or not-punt". LOL

    my 2 cents
    Edited By: saukendar Sep 27th, 2017 at 04:44 PM
    + 3
    Add saukendar to Rail
  5. It is a complete punt the guy has you beat here every time. The raise pre was fine and the c-bet standard but when he makes that big check raise it screams strong to me in a $5 buy in I don't think players at that lvl are capable of making a big bluff in that spot. You said you had an edge over the table you should just fold next time in a spot like this and move on to the next hand.
    Add kevmode to Rail
    Originally Posted by kevmode View Post

    It is a complete punt the guy has you beat here every time. The raise pre was fine and the c-bet standard but when he makes that big check raise it screams strong to me in a $5 buy in I don't think players at that lvl are capable of making a big bluff in that spot. You said you had an edge over the table you should just fold next time in a spot like this and move on to the next hand.

    I don't think the size if the tournament changes the "beat here every time" part because in general you can't even beat his bluffs at this point.

    Self assessed "I had a major edge on my table." can be valid but I haven't found them to all that reliable, people always believe in there own greatness. Even when true, a statistically provable "major edge" is typically easily swamped by standard variation in any particular tournament.

    In any case the value of going from a mid stack to the boss stack at your table has value and hat value is greater if you do actually have a statistically provable edge.

    The actual raise is $193,776 into a pot of $143,487 so we are offering our selves about 1.74:1 direct pot odds on the assumption we get 100% calls (I do make that assumption). That's not enough in isolation for a flush draw, if it's good, but you don't have to give a huge about of weight to ICM consideration to make it up. The issue then becomes the steepness of the payout structure. We are already in the money, a loss doesn't bust us quit out of the tournament (it's true it leaves a push/fold stack). But typically the payout structure in these is such that a top 3 finish has a monstrously huge value (4 to 5 orders of magnitude) over the bottom 90% of payouts.

    We don't have that payout structure so we can't know for sure but IMHO it needs to be looked at.

    another 2 cents
    Edited By: saukendar Oct 1st, 2017 at 06:28 PM
    Add saukendar to Rail
  7. Result was favorable, but this was a mistake. The open is fine (especially if your table has been passive), the Cbet is also fine. What is not fine is the 3bet jam in a spot where villain is not likely to fold and if you lose you are effectively crippling yourself when the big $$ is right around the corner and you are 1 of the table leaders. When you get to this stage of the tourney you are Floyd Mayweather.. jab move, jab move, combo move, only go for big swings win you have very high probability of succes (fold equity or win).

    In the future if you plan on opening this wide, you may want to mix up your cbet ranges so that when you are fairly connected to the board you check back the flop.. this will open up opportunities to stack villains when you hit your card on the turn or allow you to represent a different combo when villain donks turn and you raise him.

    Most people have poker tracker and it is possible from your cbet size he put you on a draw or at least a not top pair hand.. I take a lot of notes on people myself and all of that info goes into use.
    Add DaddyDuck to Rail
  8. Daddy taking notes is great advice to bad on Merge they don't allow note taking so I am "in the dark" in some spots without notes. The good news on Merge is there are still bad players that make up for not being able to take notes and have a hud.
    Add kevmode to Rail