1. When I´m running bad I usually don´t look at EV in Holdem because I just know I´m running bad & tbh I´ve forgotten where and how to analyse these numbers! EDIT: Actually I´m just brain dead fullstop!

    But as I´m having an indepth review I thought it prudent to actually look at these numbers just in case I´m actually deluding myself!

    What is best to look at?

    "overall" tab and BB/ 100 vs EVbb/100

    or "overall" and net won vs cEV diff

    As usual any help most appreciated!
    Edited By: samj123 2 Weeks Ago at 03:04 PM
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  2. Sure, you can look at metrics like those for sanity's sake. Although I find little value in spending too much time looking at these numbers. What's more important is analyzing trouble spots and finding leaks. I have no control over my allEV and how I run. In fact focusing too much on this could cause bad habits to be formed. Here is an example:

    Example: Report X says I run bad in coin flips.
    Conclusion: I'm going to avoid coin flips a little more.

    While it is reasonable to think you should avoid coinflips when you are on the wrong side of variance, that is just fundamentally wrong. Your goal should not be to avoid coinflips. It should be to be getting a good price or overlay on your coinflips. If you are doing this well, you needn't worry about the law of probability. You'll win roughly 45% of the time when you are unpaired and 55% of the time when you are paired. Therefore as long as you are getting a good price, you will win. As soon as you start folding out the bottom of your range, you are over folding because you are forfeiting equity that you are entitled to.

    So this is just one example that you should study with intent, rather than convincing yourself that you aren't crazy and you run bad.

    Thoughts?
     
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  3.  
    Originally Posted by negrealanu View Post

    Sure, you can look at metrics like those for sanity's sake. Although I find little value in spending too much time looking at these numbers. What's more important is analyzing trouble spots and finding leaks. I have no control over my allEV and how I run. In fact focusing too much on this could cause bad habits to be formed. Here is an example:

    Example: Report X says I run bad in coin flips.
    Conclusion: I'm going to avoid coin flips a little more.

    While it is reasonable to think you should avoid coinflips when you are on the wrong side of variance, that is just fundamentally wrong. Your goal should not be to avoid coinflips. It should be to be getting a good price or overlay on your coinflips. If you are doing this well, you needn't worry about the law of probability. You'll win roughly 45% of the time when you are unpaired and 55% of the time when you are paired. Therefore as long as you are getting a good price, you will win. As soon as you start folding out the bottom of your range, you are over folding because you are forfeiting equity that you are entitled to.

    So this is just one example that you should study with intent, rather than convincing yourself that you aren't crazy and you run bad.

    Thoughts?

    I completely agree. I just wanted to judge how bad the variance is and how much is bad play/leaks to give me an idea of where I´m starting from. Like you said, for sanity, hopefully!

    I´m going to take the whole "downswing" period and work through these games for play but also buy ins & structure etc to see what I can find out.

    Even if I start running hot again, I need to do this exercise because this is the 2nd time I´ve run up to $4-4.5k and then run down to rock bottom although last time I didn´t bust my roll.

    Thanks for the reply.
    Edited By: samj123 2 Weeks Ago at 07:14 PM
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