1. No Limit Hold'em Tournament T200/T400
    Buy-in: $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit
    PokerStars
    8 players

    Stacks:
    UTG - UTG (T7,939)
    UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T13,644)
    MP - MP (T6,282)
    MP2 - MP2 (T8,840)
    CO - CO (T32,729)
    BTN - BTN (T4,010)
    SB - SB (T11,226)
    BB - Hero (T22,905)
    Blinds 400/200/50

    Preflop: (T1,000, 8 players) Hero is BB with 9? 9?
    4 folds, CO raises to T840, BTN raises to T3,960 (all-in), SB raises to T11,176 (all-in), BB????????

    I was prepared to 3bet the CO if he opened and it folded to me, and would call a 4 bet and take a flop. I was prepared to call the BTN shove if it folded to him. I was prepared to 3 bet get it in with the SB if it folded to him and he raised (or limped). However, this amount of action in front of me somewhat threw me.
    What would you do?
     
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    Add turbulence to Rail
  2. snap fold. I would also be all excited to get into this hand until it became a raise war. the Short stack shove isnt very concerning. The Btn iso is also not that crazy but once the SB 4bets it you are praying for a flip at best.
     
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    Add GodsBigToe to Rail
  3. I would agree with GodsBigToe here. Would have happily gotten it in against the first opener and likely the button as well, but once SB shoves i think we are just going to be dominated here WAY to often, and certainly going to be flipping at best.
    Add killingbird to Rail
  4. Agree with the rest. You are probably getting over attached to the specific hand if you have to second guess your decision.
    Add Rihard4a to Rail
  5. To be quite honest if you don't see this as a snap fold then you probably shouldn't be playing in this tournament. At least one of the players is very likely going to have you dominated and its most likely one of the larger stacks.
    There are arguments for calling with AK here as you may have over cards against all 3 players, but nines are always going to be in very bad shape.
    Add MarkOKW to Rail
  6.  
    Originally Posted by MarkOKW View Post

    To be quite honest if you don't see this as a snap fold then you probably shouldn't be playing in this tournament.

    Thanks for that - extremely useful!

    Ok, let's clear something up. I did fold this hand (but not as a snap fold, before I folded I actually considered my options, versus risk, versus reward) I would suggest you might like to consider spots like this with a little more thought. On the surface it does seem initially that it is a relatively simple decision. However, when the cards were shown I was quit surprised. Not by the BTN shove but by the SB iso shove, given both myself and the Cut-off had him covered and were still to act.

    The BTN shoved 66 over the CO open - no issue with that. The SB iso shoved nearly 30bbs with As8s. I expected his range to be tighter than that. Having seen this it made me think about what the actual ranges of all players in the hand might be and how 99 stacked up against those ranges and if this spot needed to be considered more closely, hence the post on the forum.

    Unfortunately, Holdem Resources Calculator cant cope with more than 3 players with mutliple action choices in an advanced hand calculation. For a starting point i have given each of the players these ranges:-

    Equity Win Tie
    CO 19.83% 18.95% 0.88% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    BU 23.52% 22.50% 1.02% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KQo }
    SB 27.30% 26.26% 1.04% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
    BB 29.35% 28.99% 0.36% { 9s9c }

    In this scenario in a basic all-in preflop type action 99 actually stacks up pretty well and in a 4way all-in with these ranges 99 is actually very profitable. However, the cut-off is only going to call our all-in with the top of his range say TT+, AQs, AKo+. This is only going to be ~20% of the time.

    I would suggest then that this spot is not so clear cut and that we might all benefit from looking into this more deeply and try to resolve it a bit more accurately mathematically.
     
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    Thread StarterAdd turbulence to Rail
  7. Just raw marginal equity advantage with overly optimistic ranges is not great argument for call. You are trying to find a needle in a haystack right now with thinking of calling here. Something like this will occur in your sample once every 1million hands.
    Add Rihard4a to Rail
  8.  
    Originally Posted by turbulence View Post

    Thanks for that - extremely useful!

    Ok, let's clear something up. I did fold this hand (but not as a snap fold, before I folded I actually considered my options, versus risk, versus reward) I would suggest you might like to consider spots like this with a little more thought. On the surface it does seem initially that it is a relatively simple decision. However, when the cards were shown I was quit surprised. Not by the BTN shove but by the SB iso shove, given both myself and the Cut-off had him covered and were still to act.

    The BTN shoved 66 over the CO open - no issue with that. The SB iso shoved nearly 30bbs with As8s. I expected his range to be tighter than that. Having seen this it made me think about what the actual ranges of all players in the hand might be and how 99 stacked up against those ranges and if this spot needed to be considered more closely, hence the post on the forum.

    Unfortunately, Holdem Resources Calculator cant cope with more than 3 players with mutliple action choices in an advanced hand calculation. For a starting point i have given each of the players these ranges:-

    Equity Win Tie
    CO 19.83% 18.95% 0.88% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    BU 23.52% 22.50% 1.02% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KQo }
    SB 27.30% 26.26% 1.04% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
    BB 29.35% 28.99% 0.36% { 9s9c }

    In this scenario in a basic all-in preflop type action 99 actually stacks up pretty well and in a 4way all-in with these ranges 99 is actually very profitable. However, the cut-off is only going to call our all-in with the top of his range say TT+, AQs, AKo+. This is only going to be ~20% of the time.

    I would suggest then that this spot is not so clear cut and that we might all benefit from looking into this more deeply and try to resolve it a bit more accurately mathematically.


    It was funny that you should say this, since I have folded some similar spots, only to see cold 4 iso shoves such as this that seem ridiculous to me, but now appear to be more and more a part of the game. Of course HUD stats as well as reads would be helpful here, but a good example of how the seemingly obviously play (folding) may actually be a suboptimal play in certain situations.
    Edited By: mikewebb68 1 Week Ago at 02:07 AM
      
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    Add mikewebb68 to Rail
  9.  
    Originally Posted by mikewebb68 View Post

    It was funny that you should say this, since I have folded some similar spots, only to see cold 4 iso shoves such as this that seem ridiculous to me, but now appear to be more and more a part of the game. Of course HUD stats as well as reads would be helpful here, but a good example of how the seemingly obviously play (folding) may actually be a suboptimal play in certain situations.


    I would have raised your post but apparently it didnt have enough character. Firstly, thanks Mike for reading the entire post, and secondly for understanding where I was trying to go with this as an exercise.
     
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    Thread StarterAdd turbulence to Rail
  10. You're welcome! These types of hands are quite fascinating to me.
      
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    Add mikewebb68 to Rail
  11. I'm snap folding, and here's why:

    CO can have a wide range.

    BTN expects to go to show down => CO's call would be 3120 to win 5800 or 1.9:1 => offered that close to 2:1 on a 3:2 with his stack that's a snap call with really any 2 live cards vs the BTN's shove. The BTN may be unable to do the math but he has right at zero FE.

    SB sees the BTN ready to stroll down to the river with CO and shoves, with the CO still active behind him. Sure the CO has lots of air but his range also includes all of his actual power. That means the SB has to be good vs. the BTN for 1/3 of his stack enough to make up for the times the CO over calls for the other 2/3s.

    Sure some folks can't do the math but if they have the ranges they are repping you are racing or worse for 1/2 your stack and maybe playing only for a side pot. I don't think your stack changes the CO's over calling range :) So that leaves you looking at call/folding or ship/puking those times the CO plays.

    Whatever happens with the CO you're going to see what BTN & SB are playing. If either or both are out of line take notes, that will make you money later.

    my 2 cents
    Edited By: saukendar 1 Week Ago at 03:56 AM
    Add saukendar to Rail
  12.  
    Originally Posted by turbulence View Post

    Equity Win Tie
    CO 19.83% 18.95% 0.88% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    BU 23.52% 22.50% 1.02% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KQo }
    SB 27.30% 26.26% 1.04% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
    BB 29.35% 28.99% 0.36% { 9s9c }

    I would expect the CO to be opening about 30%-35% but not top % and never to fold vs. the BTN ship (check your HUD to see his open % from CO)

    I would expect the BTN to see he can't fold out the CO and ship about 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo (top 15%)

    The SB's ship should be about the middle of BTN's range or about 8% => 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

    CO's over calls should be about QQ+,AQs+,AKo and I don't think our stack changes that.

    With these inputs we have ~23.048% EQ when we end up 4 way and about 32.252% EQ when CO folds. I can't see a way to make the numbers work out well given that we are playing for a smallish main and 1 or 2 side pots.

    another 2 cents
    Edited By: saukendar 1 Week Ago at 04:43 AM
    Add saukendar to Rail
  13. Fold, wait for a better opportunity.
    Call if you like gambling more than playing poker.
    Add _ASA_ to Rail
  14. Nits
     
    Add Cookymonster198 to Rail
  15.  
    Originally Posted by saukendar View Post

    I would expect the CO to be opening about 30%-35% but not top % and never to fold vs. the BTN ship (check your HUD to see his open % from CO)

    I would expect the BTN to see he can't fold out the CO and ship about 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo (top 15%)

    The SB's ship should be about the middle of BTN's range or about 8% => 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

    CO's over calls should be about QQ+,AQs+,AKo and I don't think our stack changes that.

    With these inputs we have ~23.048% EQ when we end up 4 way and about 32.252% EQ when CO folds. I can't see a way to make the numbers work out well given that we are playing for a smallish main and 1 or 2 side pots.

    another 2 cents


    Thanks for the input

    The ranges you have suggested are what I expected more or less from the players involved. But, I wanted to challenge that assumption and explore the potential ranges a bit further. I think I just witnessed a spot where both the BTN and SB were at the bottom of their ranges, and could even argue that the SB should have folded.
     
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    Thread StarterAdd turbulence to Rail
  16. Can a MOD please explain why it's not possible to raise any posts.
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    Add cage to Rail
  17.  
    Originally Posted by cage View Post

    Can a MOD please explain why it's not possible to raise any posts.


    Indeed, only noticed this after your post.
    Add Rihard4a to Rail
  18. I believe the rules on "Raise" are =>
    1. not my own
    2. at least 200 characters
    Add saukendar to Rail
  19. Yeah, but the raise function appears to be broken in this particular thread for some reason, as the longer posts cannot be raised, either. I will look into it.
      
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    Add mikewebb68 to Rail