1. I spun into this for $3.75...im a small stakes player so was pretty excited at the shot at a sick score.

    Got in 6 hands before 100/200 (25bbs). Really wasn't getting any playable hands at all. Was stealing the blinds when I could to stay hovering around starting stack. Got moved and this hand came up.....i obv have no reads on these guys as I have never played a $44 mtt.

    Blinds 150/300/30
    Folds to BTN who jams 3174
    SB clicks it back (started w/14.5k)
    I'm in BB with 3262 after posting and have AJo....

    WWYD?
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  2. Unfortunately it's a classic "not in love with any option" spot. Knowing that you have to beat both opponents since you have effectively the same stack as the initial raiser means you need at least 33% here just to break even. Assuming one of them has a pair already cuts you down to about 30% in a lot of cases. And while unlikely it is certainly feasible for either of them to have AK or AQ given all combos of those are in their ship range. In game I sigh-fold here and wait for a better spot. You could run this through an equity calculator to see under what circumstances it would be a call you're happy about making.
    Edited By: negrealanu 2 Weeks Ago at 06:03 AM
     
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  3. Yea me and buddy ran some ranges last night and I was around 22-26%. That's what I was really wondering was the math answer.
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  4. My analysis is below. Villain 2 needs to be really wide for this to be a profitable call.

    ---------------------

    I think the button ship range is going to be about 30% - Any Ace, Any Pair, All Broadways and a few suited Kx and Qx. So I'm going to hold that range constant.

    I think the SB range is the variable here. Let's use a tight range and a loose range. A tight range would be 12% and a loose range would be 25%.

    Scenario 1: Button = 30%, SB = 12%

    Board: Empty

    Range 1: AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-QTo,JTo
    Range 2: AA-66,AKs-A7s,KQs-KTs,AKo-ATo,KQo
    Range 3: AhJc

    Equity 1: 28.11% Win 1: 26.48% Tie 1: 3.66%
    Equity 2: 40.81% Win 2: 38.02% Tie 2: 5.98%
    Equity 3: 31.08% Win 3: 27.71% Tie 3: 7.14%

    Bottom Line: Break Even or slightly -EV call

    ------------------------------

    Scenario 2: Button = 30%, SB = 25%

    Board: Empty

    Range 1: AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-QTo,JTo
    Range 2: AA-44,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,AKo-A5o,KQo-K9o,QJo-QTo
    Range 3: AhJc

    Equity 1: 30.51% Win 1: 28.62% Tie 1: 4.16%
    Equity 2: 32.82% Win 2: 30.86% Tie 2: 4.30%
    Equity 3: 36.67% Win 3: 33.86% Tie 3: 6.01%

    Bottom Line: Slightly +EV call
     
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  5. BTN had Q2o and SB had AQo, I tank folded and saw a xxJAx run out. I had obv planned on calling the BTN but the click back looked soooo strong.

    Was ecstatic when I saw AQ, and I honestly felt sick after the hand lol. I know it's results oriented, but at the time i knew it was kinda close math wise and I woulda had a top 10 stack.

    Thanks for the help sir.
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  6. Great fold dude. Regardless of the runout you should be crediting yourself by outfolding your opponent. As humans it's hard for us to separate emotion and watch as the pot gets pushed to someone else when that specific time it could have been us if we made a fatal error. But success is never going to come in this game if we give that thinking merit. No single cash is going to bail us out for the long run implications of a big error. You must buyin to the idea that if you do this over and over again you will succeed.
     
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  7. I fold but when SB clicks back I put him on the stronger range

    I see the ranges more like this:

    BU 26.85% 25.67% 1.18% 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+
    SB 42.68% 39.40% 3.28% 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo
    BB 30.47% 26.86% 3.61% AdJh

    Good fold.
     
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