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Fold, call or raise?


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I think I could have done any one in this situation but I'll take the majority vote. I don't have the hand history detail but this is pretty simple.

Average stack is 11,000

I have 22,000

Top 180 pay and 188 are left

I have 2 other players at my table having 20,000, everyone else is 8,000ish.

Blinds 50/200/500 I'm the button. 8 handed

1st position Fold

2nd position Fold

3rd position (low stack) bets 1300.

Hyjack position (only player having me covered with 27,000) re-raises to 4,200

I Have AQs and re-raise to 9,500

all fold back to 3rd position who folds

Big Stack thinks for 5-7 seconds and shoves.

I have 12,000ish left. There is 34,000ish in the Pot.

I am getting nearly 3-1 at my money at this point and praying my opponent is going nuts with 10's or Jack's. I call and he has pocket K's and I'm out 3 before the money.

My aggresion is a curse and a gift at the same time, but I asked the guy later about the play and he told me that he would have folded JJ's or maybe QQ's. Which leads me to beleive my play was right because I didn't care about cashing, I wanted to abuse te bubble. I thought my play would work about 80-85% of the time.

Let me know your opinion. Appreciate it.

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Pot = 9*50 + 700 + 1300 + 4200 + 9500 + his push(17750) = 33900.

You're getting 2.72:1 and you need 26.88% equity to call and have breakeven equity against his range. If he's on a 4% range, you're getting a pretty good price to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Her0: 38.126% { AsQs }

BigStack: 61.874% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

If he's only making this move with big pocket pairs, you are getting close to the right price to call since you have committed 43% of your starting stack. You have 38% hand equity and only need 26.88% to be correct.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 27.626% { AQs }

Hand 1: 72.374% { QQ+ }

If you thought he only does this with top pairs, it would be a tight fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 25.410% { AQs }

Hand 1: 74.590% { KK+ }

If you knew he has exactly KK, you are getting the correct price to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 31.846% { AQs }

Hand 1: 68.154% { KK }

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1. Knowing that AQ is behind is a major factor in the decision process. You must improve to win.

(a) often behnd a pocket pair or

(b) Dominated by AK

2. In tournaments, you have to decide who you will go to war with.

(a) When you think you have the best hand, you will take on all comers.

(b) When you suspect that you may not be the best, you should defer to those that can eliminate you. If you don't survive, you cannot win.

© If you are faced with an opponent that will not endanger you tournament life, you have the freedom to play the pot equity/probabilities.

It also should be weighed by your tournament goals. If you make the money, will you have enough chips to contend for one of the larger pay-outs. Are you so short that you must win a hand soon to survive.

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As played I'm ok with the reraise, as it's really going to put him to the test, and if he's a good player, he will probably be willing to lay down low- mid PP, MAYBE TT, and AJ+

He may not fold AK, but again, if he's any good he probably should be, who knows? Obv JJ QQ KK AA he's not going to fold (he SHOULDN'T be folding these, I should say) and you're in a lot of trouble.

If you KNEW he has PP, are you willing to race as a dog? I ask this because a PP is the only thing he's going to be shoving into you with, and now as its played out, you've got a bunch of chips invested without ever seeing a flop.

If you flat call this, your gonna see a flop in position, and you'll only have invested 4200

Obv, only prob with that is getting a Q high flop, and if that were to happen, we're all probably going to go broke in that situation

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Your min reraise imo was horrible. I Hate min reraises, if ur gonna 3bet he u should be shoving. If villian #2 has something like 8's-T's or even J's he may think about folding these hands and on the bubble u want ur oppenents too throw hands like this away if there worring about cashing. But back too the point, villian 1(short stack) imo most of the time has something that he's gonna go w/ if repoped. Because Villian 2 reraised villian 1(short stack) I'd try too understand why villian 2 reraised a short stack who's probably going w/ his hand. So i'd seriously think about folding(AQ,AJ,6's-9's) and shoving(Ak, T's-Q's,).

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i don't think re-raising the dude in the hijack is a good play. i'd flat call, or even fold to his 4200 depending on my read. you can make an argument for flat calling given that he's fairly deeps and i might be using his stack. flat calling is decent as well since you'll have position post-flop. obviously if the guy is a rock well folding here is a good play. in the end, once you make it 9200 though you're priced in when he felts. all the best at the tables...

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