big 55 ft bubble

[Piyush16 0]

PokerStars Hand #84036246835: Tournament #591010577, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLII (15000/30000) - 2012/07/30 13:46:52 ACST [2012/07/30 0:16:52 ET]

Table '591010577 217' 9-max Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: Improved (1569908 in chips)

Seat 3: grunter321 (838156 in chips)

Seat 4: Fomarom (196989 in chips)

Seat 6: iriveru16 (855650 in chips)

Seat 8: Cyatusha (634369 in chips)

Improved: posts the ante 3750

grunter321: posts the ante 3750

Fomarom: posts the ante 3750

iriveru16: posts the ante 3750

Cyatusha: posts the ante 3750

Fomarom: posts small blind 15000

iriveru16: posts big blind 30000

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to iriveru16 [8s 8c]

Cyatusha: folds

Improved: raises 30000 to 60000

grunter321: folds

Fomarom: folds

iriveru16: raises 94565 to 154565

Improved: calls 94565

*** FLOP *** [Kh Ks 4c]

iriveru16: bets 142655

Improved: calls 142655

*** TURN *** [Kh Ks 4c] [Jd]

iriveru16: checks

Improved: checks

*** RIVER *** [Kh Ks 4c Jd] [9h]

iriveru16: checks

Improved: bets 650000

iriveru16: folds

Uncalled bet (650000) returned to Improved

Improved collected 628190 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 628190 | Rake 0

Board [Kh Ks 4c Jd 9h]

Seat 1: Improved collected (628190)

Seat 3: grunter321 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 4: Fomarom (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 6: iriveru16 (big blind) folded on the River

Seat 8: Cyatusha folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Improved is a very good player. i would say he is a TAG. he had folded to a couple of my 3bets previously and then this happened. thoughts on this line? this is the exact bubble so what are the chances of him having air in this spot? im a random to him

[djdoodoo 0]

Definately putting him on a strong range pre. AK, AQ, Pocket pairs. Maybe KQ but that's the bottom of his range. I'd say that he has trips or a full house. Very easy spot to get away. Well played on the turn.

[tyson219 0]

Weird spot. Has that been your 3b sizing oop? I feel like I'd go a little bigger just because 88 oop with 29bbs is really awkward to play post flop. Were you 3b/calling preflop? If that was the plan, the flop seems pretty good and I'd just bet flop shove turn.

I'm having a hard time ranging him here. I really doubt he flats AK here, even tight players are shoving that preflop. I guess he could flat some bigger pairs since people assume his 4b range is really narrow, so maybe he flats JJ+ for deception. But other than that, maybe KQ or some random Ax or broadway hands that float the flop. I don't really know what you beat, but I also can't really figure out what he has. He's deep enough where maybe he plans to float the flop and shove if you check to steal the pot. But when he checks turn, that doesn't seem all that likely.

I'm rambling...but I guess sigh fold. I'd 3b bigger pre and just go with it on that board though by betting flop and jamming turn.

Edit: I think there could also be merit to shoving preflop vs this villain. My impression is that he has a very narrow 4b range. So if you're not expecting him to 4b many worse hands, you could just shove and expect him to call off with a range that's probably very close to his 4b range. I just don't think he's shoving 67s or A7s or any other hands you dominate besides maybe 55-77. So shoving pre might be a lower variance line since you take away his ability to flat with hands that flop well and outplay you in position. But this whole idea is predicated on his 4b range being really narrow (which is my experience), so if that's not the case, then ignore all this.

[razorpoker2002 0]

You could also just call pre with intention of check raising flop or try to see a cheap showdown. You said he has folded to a couple of your 3 bets so he may be taking a stand here. I just hate this spot oop and as played I prolly just sigh fold your still have plenty of room. Im just lost on his range here.

[willmccoy 0]

Just my opinion but im going to prob 3-bet jam or fold here in this spot. I feel that flatting here is bad with 29bb's oop and 3 bet jamming is on the bigger side. But since its five handed and without any information about game flow and how the table itself has been playing; Such as how active Improved has been ect ect.......... I would lean more on the side of just getting it in preflop. Although he is a very solid thinking player i doubt that he under reps his AK,AQ,JJ hands vs your stack. And at a five handed table 88 is a very strong hand; And it's not too shabby at a six max table as well. Unless he calls with 99+ you should be in pretty decent shape vs his possible range of 99+,A9s+,KTs+,ATo+,KJo+ (45%) equity.

[razorpoker2002 0]

Just my opinion but im going to prob 3-bet jam or fold here in this spot. I feel that flatting here is bad with 29bb's oop and 3 bet jamming is on the bigger side. But since its five handed and without any information about game flow and how the table itself has been playing; Such as how active Improved has been ect ect.......... I would lean more on the side of just getting it in preflop. Although he is a very solid thinking player i doubt that he under reps his AK,AQ,JJ hands vs your stack. And at a five handed table 88 is a very strong hand; And it's not too shabby at a six max table as well. Unless he calls with 99+ you should be in pretty decent shape vs his possible range of 99+,A9s+,KTs+,ATo+,KJo+ (45%) equity.

So your saying you don't have the odds here to set mine?

[willmccoy 0]

Also if you have 3-bet him several times and got folds. I assume when he flats that he knows 100% of the time that you plan to c-bet most flops; And therefore i would assume he is auto floating with position most of the time figuring your range to be pretty wide unless he flops well. Obv he knows that you know this was an excellent board to c-bet. Seems to me he reognizes this and acted accordingly. Really seems like he either got there on the river or turn his showdown value into a bluff assuming you might fold better hands. Just my opinion as i am trying to improved myself.

[willmccoy 0]

So your saying you don't have the odds here to set mine?

At the very least you would need 900,000 in chips to set mine. And this would not be optimal by far!!! You would actually need about 1 milly 100k

[razorpoker2002 0]

At the very least you would need 900,000 in chips to set mine. And this would not be optimal by far!!! You would actually need about 1 milly 100k

30k to call assuming 120k in the pot already 4-1. With implied odds of 27ish -1 I'm not saying its the optimal play but you are getting the proper odds to set mine. And I'm not just saying give up if we don't hit a set there is still lots of flops we continue on 567 679 kk3 226. I prefer a 3bet call myself. But this line wouldn't be horrible if you didn't want to 3 bet call

[willmccoy 0]

30k to call assuming 120k in the pot already 4-1. With implied odds of 27ish -1 I'm not saying its the optimal play but you are getting the proper odds to set mine. And I'm not just saying give up if we don't hit a set there is still lots of flops we continue on 567 679 kk3 226. I prefer a 3bet call myself. But this line wouldn't be horrible if you didn't want to 3 bet call

But i am sure that you would also agree that this assessment should be villan dependent. And i would assume that Improved is not the player we would want to bank on paying us off a great deal of the time. I am not saying that your math above is wrong! But i feel it is not correct to bank on this villan to pay you off a great deal of the time. Also we are oop and i really doubt it's going to be a walk in the park with Hero's stack to play optimal post flop after flatting pre and missing post flop!

[razorpoker2002 0]

But i am sure that you would also agree that this assessment should be villan dependent. And i would assume that Improved is not the player we would want to bank on paying us off a great deal of the time. I am not saying that your math above is wrong! But i feel it is not correct to bank on this villan to pay you off a great deal of the time. Also we are oop and i really doubt it's going to be a walk in the park with Hero's stack to play optimal post flop after flatting pre and missing post flop!

Correct but it is the final table bubble and he has us covered therefore he is going to put us to the test alot of the time here like he has done on the turn in this case. So it would make more sense to play a small pot vs him if we hit a set he will likely pay us off since its the ft bubble. I dont kknow what ops intention was if he is 3 bet calling fine but if not he might as well just called.

[willmccoy 0]

Exactly!!!! Therefore 3-bet jamming or a fold pre imo eliminates a very avoidable post flop spot post. We just don't have the chips to mess around with speculation here. Wouldn't you agree that he is better off saving his chips by folding and finding a much better spot? Or click back get it in or jam pre? Shure we might be crushed but the dynamics of a final table bubble tells us; That the big stack is going to rape the table until the FT bubble burst right? Also we should know that Improved is very capable of raping a final table bubble with the above mentioned range; Which is a lot wider than i feel he is actually opening here!

[P0KERDUUDE 0]

Improved is a nit. But there's a lot more going on here...

With that one guy having <200k, and you having 900k, there is a feeling in the back of your mind saying you can fold to the final table because this guy's short. Imp is a good player and he has a large chip lead, and with the sizing of the raises/bets I would not be surprised to see him play his entire range (with the exception of a few hands...I think he reshoves AK and possibly AQ, maybe JJ) like this here. The game flow has a lot to do with the final decision you make on the river, but you're risking a lot of equity. There are a lot of questions you can ask your self on the river to try and figure out what he has, but you probably aren't going to feel too great about any of the answers. It's a tough spot, I assume you folded?

[Piyush16 0]

i was 3betting with the intention to call yes. when he flatted my 3bet i was very surprised. was expecting him to 4bet ship a wider range than usual there since i had been 3betting him in the past. i still feel like his range is super polarised once he checks back the turn. i mean once i check the turn and river my hand is kinda face up. and i would expect him to shove with any 2 on the river in this spot and put me to a decision for my tourney life. that being said, i also wouldnt be surprised if he had a hand like KQ, AJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK. although AJ would probably be the bottom of his value betting range there. i just want to know what are the chances of him to have complete trash there and would anyone consider calling off? if i busted on the bubble i would have recieved around 1.5k and 1st place was like 36k. so obv huge equity on the line too.

[P0KERDUUDE 0]

I would definitely consider calling, because if you're right you're a sick human being and that's a damn good feel, but if you're wrong you feel like an idiot. High risk, high reward.

[tyson219 0]

^^^Pretty much.

In such a high equity situation though I'd just shove pre or at least 3b larger to narrow his flatting range. I just don't think improved is 4b shoving 22-77 very often or 67s or A2-A7. A lot of his 4b range are hands you're flipping with and I'd be quite content shoving pre and taking a lower variance line and getting to the FT.

[Sbervo 1]

It seems like with his sizing he is trying to get a fold, considering your hand is most likely marginal. Seems like a good spot to make a stand and station him hard...he really has to have AJ+ to get value and his sizing seems like it would get most inferior hands to fold. sick level if he has it

[ImAllinHoney 0]

a lot has been said already but ill try to add something new to this.

i think the fact that he checks behind on the turn could indicate a strong holding here.

if he was floating on the flop he wouldve got a good spot to shove air on the turn because your check looks like you are slowing down/giving up.

so imho it just looks like he is trying to squeeze another bet out of you on the river and after you checked he just jammed since its kinda obv that if you would call 300k you would also call 600k given your stacksize.

[Bisull 0]

I'm not sure if a bigger 3bet is optimal here, but I don't have a ton of experience playing with improved.

IMO his flatting range vs. our 3bet is not gonna change that much with different sizes, obv with huge 3bets or min3bets but in this spot I don't think a 2.5x 3bet (hero's bet) vs a 2.2 or a 2.7/8 is gonna have any impact on his flatting range.

Def close with 29bb's but you could possibly 3b here to 5b allin with a 2.0.-2.2x 3bet... Therefore I don't like the preflop size and in a pressure situation like this I'd probably shove 70% of the time as Tyson said (why is Tyson always so goddamn right), just trying to think a little outside of the box here since Improved will have a polarized 4b range here almost always. This is obv a much higher varience play since you could feasibly include a lot of overcards in his 4b/jamming range.

As played i'm probably betting bigger on this flop since a good player is never flatting a 3b and then folding to a std cbet on this board. Could also bet like 78k or something and 113k on turn and put him in an akward spot given stacks

Like Tyson said, def bet the turn and as played that should be a committing bet imo

[razorpoker2002 0]

Like the guy at the table told me the other day. Your 5050 here either you win or ya lose

[roflshove 0]

This is a fold every time and its not even close. Your bet sizing considering the dryness of the flop isnt on the small side discouraging floats. When he checks back the turn he usually has showdown value as he is betting all his floats here. When he bets river we have to assume he is turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff for a huge sized bet when a small bet should get it done considering how the hand played that is so optimistic and i think hes showing you minimum a K here almost always. Good fold IMO i think ur line is fine and if hes a tight shark hes flatting of the 3bet with effective stacks has me way more worried then a jam.

[jayceee16 0]

Jam pre

[EricWRX 0]

Can't imagine doing anything other than 3b/c...OP's 3b is kind of big too, no need to go any bigger. Shoving 88 to a CO open from the BB for 28bb is just playing scared. Improved isn't someone you should be worried about hood flatting you here...you should be 3betting knowing he's either 4betting or folding.

I'd be 3betting to around 140k...improved is tight but he's still going to come over the top with worse when you 3b and fold those hands if you shove.

Post flop sucks, i think he's checking a K everytime cause the pot is already so bloated so he can still give you a chance to spew the river. He's not making that bet with anything other than a K/boat...at the same time, it's obvious you don't have much and there's not many K's in his range. Sooo calling wouldn't be horrible but still at the FT bubble of the big 55, it's really hard to make the call.

Don't bet turn either...the pot is 628k and you have 554k, betting accomplishes nothing except folding hands that are worse...you're not getting better to fold at this point.

I doubt he's turning his showdown hands that beat you into a bluff either, He knows a J is good but i doubt he just jams it, 9 isn't betting, if he was turning showdown value into a bluff it would prob be something like 55-66

I'd fold too but i think people saying to jam pre, call, 3b big are just wrong. Looks like a really standard 3b/c.

[P0KERDUUDE 0]

you should be 3betting knowing he's either 4betting or folding.

except when he flats with the intention of outplaying you postflop.

Also, 3betting to 5bb is not a big 3 bet. and making it 15k less than he did really makes no difference at all.

[Gosselinator 0]

Tough spot.

Did anyone else on the other table have a short stack, as that of Fomarom <200K? I think this guys stack, added to (if any) another short stack at the other table, probably weighs in to villans play. He would likely re-shove pre AQ+, JJ+. That said, he could be on a mid-low pocket, KQ, KJ Pretty much all I see.

If hes on KQ, KJ, 99, 44i don't see why he'd bet the river so strong. It doesn't look like much of a value bet to me .. but as i said its a tough call.

You beat is 7s or -

I can see him being on one of those low pockets, and betting the river in a manner that all your chips are in and that you have to have a good hand to call. Plus being on the bubble really puts you on the spot to call with only a premium hand, forcing you to fold WINNING but Marginal hands .. i think this is what he's trying to do here.

its really tough, but I'd call.