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Medzy11

Hot 4.40 tough decision with 77 UTG+1

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Hey everyone,

I am looking for advice/feedback on a play I made, and I believe it was the wrong play.

There are roughly 500 players left, top 450 get paid and I have 77 UTG+1 with a stack of 14.6k and blinds at 500/1000.

I took some time to think about what I wanted to do and ended up folding, but I think it was the wrong play. Should I be shoving in early position with that hand and that stack, or should I min raise, see a flop, and if re-raised pre-flop, fold the hand and look for a better spot? I'd still be left with 12 BB's if I min/folded.

My guess is I should've shoved all-in pre-flop.

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

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How was the table at that point of the tournament?

Was people calling a lot of shoves?

What were they calling with? Proper hands 99+ AQ+ or KJ, and middle pairs?

How were you playing in the table?

Were you opening a lot from early position?

Are the big stacks abusing the short stacks?

The answer to all these questions will alter the reply. But if you are a normal player opening around 6-12% from early position and the table is a bit tight (not very aggressive players after you) I would raise/fold with 2bb as people would expect me to have some strong hand because I am opening from early position with a min raise (which you would do normally with nutted hands). If they raise they are under the risk of you going all in so they would probably do it with really good hands. If you have been a lose player forget to do this either shove to use fold equity or just fold and wait for a better hand. Your M is a bit around 7 so you have a couple of more rounds to wait until it get to 5 which you can start shoving hands like this from early position.

I am sure many other players would disagree with the opening with 2bb with a 14.5bb stack but it had given me good results when I did it and won't risk you getting in the money.

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Hey Manguitimber,

Those are all very good questions. The big stacks were definitely playing aggressively trying to run over the smaller stacks. I was opening from early position with stronger hands at that point of the tournament as I was getting short.

I appreciate your input, very helpful!

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Playing to ITM is so depressing considering how long those tournaments are and how top heavy the prize structure is....based on your image in my opinion I ship this hand all day and hope to be racing where I'm slighly ahead...based on how you described the big stacks it seems likely that you get looked up by something like AJo and smaller pairs.

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according to jennifears push fold chart you can only shove 88+ profitably from utg, so in my openion shoving is not going to show a profit in the long run even though it may show a profit this time. i also think open folding is a horrible option in this spot because middle pocket pairs play so poorly post flop if you get called, also you have no blockers to big hands, technically you have reverse blockers so it is more likely that someone else on the table is going to wake up with a premium hand and ship on you. because of this the option that I feel is going to show the most profit is just folding, and the worst is going to be calling or min raising

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depends on the stack sizes infront. im open calling every stack 8bb or less.. shouldnt even need to run a icm calc, we will always have enough equity

if theres heaps of short stacks around the stack i open this every time.

we should only care about min cashes in the big games sunday mill+

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If you're playing to win the tournament, then you fold this spot. Anyone putting money in at this point, you'll be flipping a coin or going against a bigger pair. I just watched a video of Phil Helmuth folding QQ (to AQ lol) preflop with 10bb left. I mention this bc Helmuth gave me confidence to play really nitty even when the chip counts get low. Patience will always bring you a better spot. Position is much more important than your cards.

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The min- cash shouldn't cross your mind at all with 500 to go in a big field tournament. Its a leak to base your decision on getting ITM vs. making the optimal play given the circumstances. Having said that, it looks to me like a clear shove\fold spot. I have seen some regs in the higher stakes min-raise this sort of spot, and play post, but I wouldn't advise it here in the big 4.40.

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I'd imagine shoving preflop is fine according to Nash ranges (can't remember offhand), so there's nothing wrong with shoving. However, I think raise-deciding is likely to be better in this spot, especially if the table is tight or full of weak players. The better the table, the more likely I am to shove.

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