Jump to content
  • 0

Any advice on dealing with varience?

Question

  • 0

chadox78    0

Just wondering if anyone has a link I can check out or some good advice to deal with it. I play the micro level. Put 50 on ACR and I got it to 115 playing 5NL relatively quickly. Then got super stuck, lasted about two weeks, dtop me all the way down to 40. Started playing SNGs and Jackpot SNGs got it back up to 95. But I see the downswing happening again, back to 75. Was playing 4 tables and keeping up with the action, but whenever I'm losing it seems harder to do so I drop to 2 tables, maybe 1. I checked out a lot of the poker videos on you tube and it's good sounding advice. But there are days where I know the sites not gonna let me win, like if I bust out 3 or 4 times in a row getting it in good, and the only thing that makes sense is to get the F of the computer!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

29 answers to this question

Recommended Posts

  • 0

racer    0

You just have to remember that variance is part of the game, and everyone has to deal with it. When you say "I know there are days the site is not letting me win"..that mentality is part of your problem. Its not the site, it might not even be your play, its just the game. Its how you deal with it, and how you approach the game mentally that sets the better players apart from the rest. My advice is, review your hands, post here on forums, study your play and that of villains, learn how your image affects plays of others, and just basically always look at ways to improve. That mindset will allow you the confidence to grind through the downswings, and also maximize your upswings. Hope this helps, good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

chadox78    0

Thanks racer. I do HH reviews a bit, but probably not enough. I don't have a lot of friends that play poker (or at least take it seriously) so asking questions on here is always helpful. I do think a lot about table image. One of the biggest helps for me is to reduce the amount of tables. And take breaks. So I'll give it another go. First do more HH reviews. And see if I can make notes on other players. Thanks again for responding :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

killingbird    426

I recommend checking out a guy by the name of Elliot Roe. Some a lot of mental game work with poker players and he does a great job (by the accounts of everyone I have spoken to). I have only used his MP3 warmups. Check those out as well. Dealing with variance is a mindset issue imo. We all know variance happens, we just don't all deal with it well.

9
1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

theginger45    0

Jared Tendler, Tommy Angelo and Elliot Roe (as mentioned above) are all great mental game coaches you should check out.

My favourite saying about variance comes (if I remember rightly) from Jared's book, The Mental Game of Poker:

"If you check the weather forecast and it says it's going to rain, and then you decide to go outside anyway, do you get mad when you find out it's raining outside?"

Variance is part of poker. Ideally you would get to a point where you don't see any variance as either negative or positive, but first and foremost it's crucial to come to terms with the idea that you're going to experience a lot of negative variance in your poker career. You're going to suffer hundreds or even thousands of bad beats, and many of them will cost you large amounts of money. If you're not comfortable with that, then it's going to take some hard work for you to adjust to it.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

elliot10181    0

Hi Guys

Thanks for the mentions they're appreciated!

Chadox78 unfortunately If you're playing micro's it's very unlikely it would be sensible to hire a mindset coach and I wouldn't feel comfortable sending you in that direction as the price would put pressure on your bank roll.

Check out the books mentioned and also "Positive Poker" by Trica Cardner and "How to be a poker player" by Haseeb Qureshi.

I have a podcast on iTunes about the mental game called the mindset advantage podcast and each week well know pros discuss how they deal with swings and the mental game in general, it's a free way to get advice on the subject.

If you let me know your email I'll forward you a free pre game MP3 to try.

Good luck

Elliot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

If your trying to build a roll I recomend not playing jackpots and stick to cash games. Varience is a part of the game that you will have to deal with in the long run. Don't think of it as you making wrong desisions because most of the time that is not the case. But Also you may not have a big enough sample size to determine that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

I am going to say what nobody else here has though it's all good advice

Get better at poker, having a higher win rate or roi if you play tournaments will decrease your variance more than anything else. Part of that will be a correct mindset. A huge part of it will being technically better and as you do this and become more proficient you can then increase volume which will also help with variance

Gl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

rungoodgid    1

Book rec to get you started:

The poker mindset: Essential attitudes for poker success by Matthew Hilger. Remember it's a journey & what I'm discovering more and more the deeper the into the rabit hole I trail is poker development & personal development go hand in hand.

Also, get into the habit of a mental warm up in the form of relaxing (meditation) before each session to help stay in a relaxed and calm state.

GL bud

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

khanrava    0

the only thing that makes sense is to get the F of the computer!

Just chiming in to say as soon as you feel like that, it's time to get off the computer. If you're angry and not enjoying poker you won't be playing well and you'll be more likely to lose future pots. A hugely important skillset in cashgames is quitting when you're tilted/not playing your best. You should try to develop some sort of routine to cool off and get your head back in the game before playing any more hands. Mindfullness works for me, going outside for a short walk, just something to reset your brains anger levels.

I haven't read the above books but I'm sure they will probably help you, GL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

schaf4206    0

You just have to remember that variance is part of the game, and everyone has to deal with it. When you say "I know there are days the site is not letting me win"..that mentality is part of your problem. Its not the site, it might not even be your play, its just the game. Its how you deal with it, and how you approach the game mentally that sets the better players apart from the rest. My advice is, review your hands, post here on forums, study your play and that of villains, learn how your image affects plays of others, and just basically always look at ways to improve. That mindset will allow you the confidence to grind through the downswings, and also maximize your upswings. Hope this helps, good luck.
+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

chadox78    0

Thanks guys. I have been reading Jared Tendler's "Mental Game of Poker" and am getting a better understanding of dealing with variance. I also never realized my emotional and mental state after taking a beat. I ran bad tonight and I remembered my heart was pounding after a couple of coolers and I started to play worse and worse. I never realized any of this, so now I got to learn to at least stop when I feel this way. I keep a journal already but will add emotional state/ mental state after each tourney. I got to start somewhere. And I need to do more hh reviews and more thoroughly. A lot to work on. Gotta try to read another chapter before I call it a night. Gl everyone and again thanks for your help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

The best way to reduce variance is by diversifying and using proper bankroll management. By playing within your limits, you can make all the correct decisions without worrying about the short-term. Diversification is the only free lunch. I'd rather see you at 5 2NL tables than 2 5NL tables.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

6string55    0

All excellent advice, but I agree with MakemeSmile... bankroll management is a vitally important aspect of managing variance. I'm no expert, but I've sold a couple of copies of my own bankroll management system "The Reclaim System", if you want to check it out. It teaches you how to take advantage of winning OR losing streaks within your bankroll limits, which in turn will control your variance. Check it out on Amazon if you like, and feel free to hit me up on email. Best of luck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

MYBLUEDOG    0

Basics of dealing with variance:

1. Realize/Acknowledge that poker is a GAME of INCOMPLETE information. Each hand you are dealt has some probability of winning (AND some probability of losing). You cannot have a poker game without winners & losers.

2. As a poker player, your job is to control the things you can and apply good decision making to lessen the cost of things you cannot control.

(a) review your position, hand strength, opposition hand-reading, equity you own in the pot, stack to pot ratio, pot odds, odds that your hand is the best or can increase to the best and how likely it is that you can receive implied odds to compensate for the risk you take.

(b) make a decision to bet, raise or fold for the best probable outcome.

You control decision making on your hands/situations.

Your opponent controls his/her decision making.

You nor your opponent controls the cards that are dealt.

Most of the time the player that makes the best decision will eventually come out a winner. Maybe not today, but on average - through out the long term run of cards (your life time).

If you are making mistakes, you must continue to improve your decision making skills. That is the only thing you can control. Keep putting yourself in good situations to become a winner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

pasta    0

I haven't read Tendlers book, but recall listening to Tommy Angelo on a podcast. Alot of his discussion was about mindfullness, bodyawareness. As you said, when you get a bad beat or play poorly and lose, your body will physically start to change. This has to effect your play. I also wouldn't jump into jackpots after losing in a cash game. It has a bit of a lottery feel to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

GTOPoker    0

Hi chadox, I've been a professional poker player for 5 years + (4 years live on cash games and 1 year online on MTTs) best way to deal with variance will be first to understand what variance is and then change your mindset accordingly.

Variance does not mean the poker site "won't let you win some days", variance will present itself in a different degree depending on the format you play whether you play cash games, SNGs or MTTs variance will be different in all of them.

so what is variance?

well I'll try to give you an example, lets say you have a coin and want to play heads or tails with a friend, so the mathematical probability of winning at such game will be 50% for each player, but if you only play the game two times one single player could easily get lucky and win it the two times in a row so his win rate will be 100%, might even be the case that if you play the game 10 times a single player could possible win 9 and the other one just 1 of the coin flips, so the win rates will be 90% and 10% and thats still very far from tha theoretical probability of 50% so maybe you want to increase the number of trials to 100 and then it might be the case that one player wins 57 and the other one 43 and that is still far from the 50% so maybe if you get to play this heads and tails game 1000 times you will get to be very close to the mathematical probability and this is variance, the likelihood you will se a results discrepancy between theory and reality for a given sample.

So in order to overcome this phenomena all you need is to make sure you have enough trials so you can get to realize the equities and there is where bankroll management is important as you need to make sure you have enough money to keep playing for a big enough sample.

If you have enough money for the games you play and really understand what variance is all about then you dont really have to worry about it because you will know if you have an edge it will show itself over time and profit will come.

I hope this makes sense and helps with your concern, cheers :)

189

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

chadox78    0

Haha I thought about doing that a few times. I did punch my laptop screen. Uses to be a touchscreen but I modified it lol.

I have adopted a lot of new strategies and I just basically look at HHs and look at spots I forced or missed. Now I play every hand the best I can. Always ask is it plus ev, to fold call or raise. I check my emotions constantly. Inject logic whenever I get angry at a bad players line or when i get a bad result.

And I make bad plays from time to time and recognition is key or else it will resurface over and over again.

So I read some of these posts from time to time and it is a good way to get ready for a session. I really really appreciate all the advice. Mike A. I follow you on Twitch. Your helping my game bigtime. I just learned about the P5s TV thing and that is a big help. Sometimes I can run bad for a while and start to question my game. But then watching the plays made it gets me back to being confident in the lines I take. Still get variance but now more focus on the way I played, not the results.

Will keep posting and GL everyone :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 0

Don;t give a crap about the money, care about making the best play every time. IT is easy to get tilted playing small stakes, especially if you only have 40 dollars in your account because one instance of bad luck means so much of your already tiny roll. Once I got to 200 dollars in my account I never got tilted because I am safely bankrolled with at least 40 buy ins for whatever game I am playing in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Answer this question...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.