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tylerjames

Theoretical Argument

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Me and a few of my friends just got into a huge theoretical argument and have decided to see if anyone in the poker community online would like to contribute or possibly provide an answer for this scenario:

You have aces in the big bling on the first hand of the tournament and see 8 consecutive all-ins, and you are to act.

What do you do and why?

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First this type of tournament would have to either be a rebuy or a small limit home-game. Both of these cases I'm calling 100% of the time. I am also calling 100% of the time in most other situations even though this isn't likely to ever happen, but can think of a few I might have to think it over first.

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I'am calling 100% of time. You could be behind only in the scenario facing another player with AA and one or more with suited connectors. Even in this case you are behind only few % and all the times that you are the only player with AA make up for it. In general call is a +EV play. I can imagine folding only if you are one of the best players in the field and can achieve better spots easily.

You can play around here to see how you are doing with AA http://www.propokertools.com/simulations. It only allows 6 hands but I think it is enough to see how AA is doing.

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A lot of this would actually depend on the quality of the field and the size of field. If I'm playing a 25k against 250 top players then it is a no brainer call. The times you win you gain so much equity. But if it is a tournament like the Colossus, with 25,000 runners, you're not actually picking up significant equity the times that you win. The players in the field are soft, and while it would be great to start off with a monster stack in the that tournament I think I would have a slightly higher expectation if say you gave me 9 entries at starting stack versus the 9 times we ran this simulation with AA.

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The odds for this would look like:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 38.748% 38.53% 00.22% 2175759 12583.42 { AA }

Hand 1: 08.750% 08.03% 00.72% 453284 40859.00 { random }

Hand 2: 08.749% 08.02% 00.73% 453063 41051.42 { random }

Hand 3: 08.754% 08.03% 00.73% 453231 41186.17 { random }

Hand 4: 08.759% 08.03% 00.73% 453652 41011.25 { random }

Hand 5: 08.735% 08.01% 00.72% 452523 40815.08 { random }

Hand 6: 08.762% 08.03% 00.73% 453522 41298.00 { random }

Hand 7: 08.743% 08.02% 00.73% 452749 41019.67 { random }

So you aren't even close to a favorite vs. the field. As has been said above it depends on the Tournament in question. The more players overall (ie. the less valuable a 9x stack is), the less you should want to go here. I don't have any specific rules or break points for various field sizes.

I haven't seen a spot like this in a MTT, but you do see it now & then in smaller live singe table satellites.

my 2 cents

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(with a normal MTT)

Its gonna be an easy call unless the deck is set a pretty certain way (Ax bockers, suited connecters for open suits, A few pocket pairs that block our outs but not outs of the suited connectors ect.)

Great players make the money significantly less than the percentage your AA wins if its verse random hands or hands in the top percentiles. (If you win with AA you will have about the chip average when the money bubble bursts). There really isn't any tourneys where you'll have that much of an edge or you'll always be able to get in with the nuts ect. In addition to all that you know get to navigate this tourney knowing you will have opponents well covered. If you get coolered early, loose a flip, you'll still have a great stack.

Field size really shouldn't matter on all this. In very large field we still need to double are stack X amount of times to get all the chips in play. We essentially get to get our first 3 double ups done at one shot with most likely a 30-37% chance of doing so.

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