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samj123

Do I take this spot with 10´s or not?

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Position Name Stack

UTG+2 32,735 (10.9 bb)

MP1 12,475 (4.2 bb)

MP2 26,153 (8.7 bb)

MP3 83,309 (27.8 bb)

CO Hero 99,471 (33.2 bb)

BTN 17,532 (5.8 bb)

SB 130,514 (43.5 bb)

BB 185,139 (61.7 bb)

Players: 8

Blindss 1500/3000 antes 375

Preflop: Hero is CO with T of spades T of clubs

4 folds, Hero raises to 6,000, BTN raises to 17,157 and is all-in, SB folds, BB raises to 184,764 and is all-in,

Hero ?????

Down to 47 people and I am currently about 16th with 33bb.

I only had 60 hands on the BB with 34/24 aggression 13%

I felt that due to positions it would be a call because the BB could have been isolating wide BUT on the other hand I had seen him calling opens much more than raising & felt he could actually be stronger. Seemed a bit close for 33bb BUT taking this shot and winning gives me chip lead.

Looking at pot odds I needed 42%, if I assume a 9% range to isolated from the BB, it is close.

Anyone think 9% is too tight too loose?

What would you have done?

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Position Name Stack

UTG+2 32,735 (10.9 bb)

MP1 12,475 (4.2 bb)

MP2 26,153 (8.7 bb)

MP3 83,309 (27.8 bb)

CO Hero 99,471 (33.2 bb)

BTN 17,532 (5.8 bb)

SB 130,514 (43.5 bb)

BB 185,139 (61.7 bb)

Players: 8

Blindss 1500/3000 antes 375

Preflop: Hero is CO with T of spades T of clubs

4 folds, Hero raises to 6,000, BTN raises to 17,157 and is all-in, SB folds, BB raises to 184,764 and is all-in,

Hero ?????

Down to 47 people and I am currently about 16th with 33bb.

I only had 60 hands on the BB with 34/24 aggression 13%

I felt that due to positions it would be a call because the BB could have been isolating wide BUT on the other hand I had seen him calling opens much more than raising & felt he could actually be stronger. Seemed a bit close for 33bb BUT taking this shot and winning gives me chip lead.

Looking at pot odds I needed 42%, if I assume a 9% range to isolated from the BB, it is close.

Anyone think 9% is too tight too loose?

What would you have done?

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BB shoving 60bbs over btns 5 bb ship seems a bit strange to me and I would doubt he is doing this with JJ + unless he's pretty bad - for that reason I'd put him on a smaller pp than 1010 or some kind of broadway combo/ half decent Ax hand rather than the top of his range. I would take the spot and if he does have us crushed, oh well.

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I like Cage's response and it does make a lot of sense. Although there is something to be said about taking lower variance lines and stretching out play when you have bigger edges post-flop against your opponent. While villain will show up with 66 or A9s at times, a large majority of the time you will be flipping. If you were at ~20 BB or less this is a snippity snap beat him in the pot call for me. But being as deep as you are, you can potentially slow climb to the final table a decent % of the time. Anyway, based on my range assumptions, here is the equity on what I believe would be a near break-even call.

Range 1: TcTs

Range 2: AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,AKo-A5o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo

Range 3: AA-66,AKs-A9s,KQs,AKo-ATo

Equity 1: 40.69% Win 1: 40.12% Tie 1: 1.25%

Equity 2: 24.86% Win 2: 24.02% Tie 2: 1.79%

Equity 3: 34.45% Win 3: 33.48% Tie 3: 2.04%

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BB shoving 60bbs over btns 5 bb ship seems a bit strange to me and I would doubt he is doing this with JJ + unless he's pretty bad - for that reason I'd put him on a smaller pp than 1010 or some kind of broadway combo/ half decent Ax hand rather than the top of his range. I would take the spot and if he does have us crushed, oh well.

It seemed strange to me & I was sooo close to calling. I just had the nagging feeling that as he was loose passive he could actually have had something stronger & then showed some control (a first!) and folded.

So I reluctanly folded and then cursed from here to hell when he had AKo and the shortie AQ and I had 44% vs those exact hands and actually would have scooped a monster stack....so I wanted to check whether it was a clear cut fold or call for next time.

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I like Cage's response and it does make a lot of sense. Although there is something to be said about taking lower variance lines and stretching out play when you have bigger edges post-flop against your opponent. While villain will show up with 66 or A9s at times, a large majority of the time you will be flipping. If you were at ~20 BB or less this is a snippity snap beat him in the pot call for me. But being as deep as you are, you can potentially slow climb to the final table a decent % of the time. Anyway, based on my range assumptions, here is the equity on what I believe would be a near break-even call.

Range 1: TcTs

Range 2: AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,AKo-A5o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo

Range 3: AA-66,AKs-A9s,KQs,AKo-ATo

Equity 1: 40.69% Win 1: 40.12% Tie 1: 1.25%

Equity 2: 24.86% Win 2: 24.02% Tie 2: 1.79%

Equity 3: 34.45% Win 3: 33.48% Tie 3: 2.04%

Thanks for this effort, appreciate it.

Just a little further question. We were already in the money & the next pay jumps are minor so would you discount ICM as being pretty much irrelevant or add a couple % to cover.

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I see that when we leave btn out of this calculation your 9% ahead instead of 6%. Can we do that,leave him out ? Never thought about it..not so into that wishy washy math stuff..boring lol who`s math ?

I think these ranges look great ! bb could,in fackt, be wider, hes only shoving 33.2 bb effectively

Sorry,i see it was AK,AQ they had. Folding wassent bad against a bigger stack,specially when you think you can get it in with a bigger edge later. I think thats wat you have to think about for yourself each time

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Sorry,i see it was AK,AQ they had. Folding wassent bad against a bigger stack,specially when you think you can get it in with a bigger edge later. I think thats wat you have to think about for yourself each time

The very next hand I did get it in with AKs vs a lag with Aj0 & busted, but that is just the way it goes!

For anyone who is interested: Assuming BB range was 8.3% ICMIZER said 10´s were +EV 0.11 shove.

Can anyone please explain to me what a margin of +EV 0.11 means? Still seems breakeven to me when AA was +EV 0.65. 99´s at +EV 0.01 is breakeven. But should I be taking any of these spots that are +EV and not breakeven?

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Theoretically yes take any clear edge in a vacuum. In reality the smaller the EV the less you should take it. In a tournament where you have a strong edge against the field you should forego smaller edges pre-flop. If you are in a very tough field you should take this all day because it may be the best stop you get, or at least one of the better ones. +.11 refers to the profitability in BB of the jam. The reason why this is so low even with AA is because you need to beat 2 opponents for a substantial amount of the pot. Based on their ranges and the fact that you unblock the maximum amount of over combos (AK, AQ, AJ, ...) there really isn't much edge to be gained here.

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In this hand AK is kind of the top of BBs range, BTN can have lots of weaker pps, broadways, Ax etc. With BB being described as loose/passive however, I can see your dillema, still, pocket tens I consider to be a pretty strong hand in this situation, doubt I'd be folding and as you say, might be time to stack up or fuck off.

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Interesting negrealanu, maybe I don't think these spots through enough in reality, if calling off I would expect to be flipping most of the time against a loose/passives range but would expect to be doing better against the range of a stronger player. I admit I do sometimes have a problem playing a 30bb stack if I'm struggling to find decent steal spots, so maybe more patience is needed on my part.

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I have nothing to add nor am I qualified to contribute to this post.  I just wanted to say it was interesting as hell to read this thread in it's entirety.  Very insightful and interesting.  Thank You...

Edited by BMastaG
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I don't like a lot of the answers I'm seeing here

it really doesn't make much sense to me.

 

I will explain now.

Okay, pocket 10's are a baby monster hand. but you really need to hit one in order for you win. I mean AK has a 43% chance of hitting from any pre flop. and you have no Idea if one the hands you are up against isn't A 10, and the other 10 was folded, like a 10 2.

 

most pro's fold Jacks in that situation. so I would say folding the 10's would have been the best choice, then looking for the next best hand to shove. like AJ AQ AK or QQ, but believe it or not, a lot of pro's would have thought about even folding QQ to an all in, because AK has a 43% advantage, and everyone knows, online it has even more odds that that". an ace or a king will hit the board about 70% of the time online.

 

if you fold that pair of 10's, chances are pretty good that a few more players will get beat before you do, and that may bring you a better payout, not to mention, if you shove a few hands later and hit, you will be placing higher yet in the tournament.

 

so again, I would be folding a hand that has a 9% chance. even though I believe you had a better chance than the 9%, but either way, I'm folding.

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I'm in the PokerPress camp. Its close but I would have folded.

I get the maths but its too close for me, you have 30bb left and time to find better spots than that.

I suppose it comes down to do you think you have an edge on most of the players in the field, if you do fold it, if you dont stick it in and hope for a double up.

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Surely the big question is whether there were any bounties involved. Secondly, has the BB been a maniac previously and gained such a huge stack by taking big isolation spots with hands like 33,44,55 etc... he is likely shoving because he doesn't want over called by a hand like 1010. Think you have to ask yourself are you wanting to run deep deep or are you happy with a 15th place finish... My opinion but I think you have to take that spot and hope the BB is playing a lower pocket pair as you'll have him crushed. 

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I probably sigh fold in this spot. Because while TT might be ahead of AK and AQ or any Ax pre, you got lotta fading to do for flop, turn and river. Plus the fact sb and bb might have JJ+. I'd rather preserve my chips for a better spot than risk my mtt life. 

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