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samj123

kqs picking up fd on turn

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partypoker, $2.20 + $0 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,750/3,500 (440 ante) - 7 players

UTG: 98,680 (28 bb)

MP: 277,075 (79 bb)

MP+1 (Hero): 76,975 (22 bb)

CO: 289,680 (83 bb)

BU: 183,635 (52 bb)

SB: 449,337 (128 bb)

BB: 548,724 (157 bb)

Pre-Flop: (8,330) Hero is MP+1 with Q? K?

1 fold, MP raises to 7,000, Hero calls 7,000, 3 players fold, BB calls 3,500

Flop: (25,830) T? 9? A? (3 players)

BB bets 12,915, MP calls 12,915, Hero calls 12,915

Turn: (64,575) 7? (3 players)

BB bets 31,500, MP folds, MP+1

(Hero) ?

I didn´t like how I played this at all!

PREFLOP: MP only had a PFR of 9, so I thought I wouldn´t have a great deal of fold equity versus that range for a 3bet.

FLOP: I only have a gutshot and although I´m close to correct pot odds I should be folding here especially with my stack size.

TURN: Question - as I picked up a flush draw on the turn is this a spot to take and just GII even though I have no fold equity. My pot odds are 25% and I have 30% equity in equilab vs his TP,sets or flush draw combos.

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Anything to be said for a preflop 3b AI? Think I'd prefer that play than a flat with plenty of players behind, all of which have at least 2x our stack. As played, fold flop imo. BB leading out and OR calling, as well as our stack being on the short side, and weak draw... just doesn't seem like a spot to call. Would even prefer a jam than call tbh.

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Anything to be said for a preflop 3b AI? Think I'd prefer that play than a flat with plenty of players behind, all of which have at least 2x our stack. As played, fold flop imo. BB leading out and OR calling, as well as our stack being on the short side, and weak draw... just doesn't seem like a spot to call. Would even prefer a jam than call tbh.

Opener went 2x with antes on - his range is he's still breathing... There are 4.4BBs in the middle to take, You have good value and no interest in seeing any more cards, I agree with a pre-flop ship on this one.

my 2 cents

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How many hands did you have on the initial opener? Just because his pfr is 9 doesn't mean that you shouldn't shove on the boyo.

The only consideration for flatting would be if you had a large sample size on the villain that showed his pfr to be 9 over 200+ hands, or if icm was a heavy factor. More info please :)

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Only 120 hands & ICM wasn´t a big factor.

I remember he had been limping a lot, his stats 30/9 so that was why I thought he might be stronger than usual from his position.

I worked out the EV. If he was only raising 10% of hands and calling off with 5% of those this is close but a fold, assuming I crunched the numbers correctly. As I only have 100 hands he only needs to be open raising a few more hands and therefore folding a little more often and it becomes +EV.

I used to do these EV calcs often, I obviously need to keep them up & not get so hung up on stats where I only have a small sample!

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Yeah I agree. I wouldn't base your read on that small of a sample size, because of random card distribution he can certainly be card dead over that whole sample size and finally look down at an open-able hand. But as you said his vpip is a little high he may be a little more weighted towards strength.

I think I still favor a rip against this opponent as the short stack at the table, Increasing your stack by about 20% instantly is always favorable in a situation where you need to collect chips to compete/survive at this particular table.

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As played fold the turn, we forgot to include the possibility he has a nut straight here as well . Too much beats us here. find a better window and let go of the hand imo. BB leading the flop then power bets the turn . I'm just going to lick my wounds and say NEXT......

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