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crondo79

Making a big fold at a final table...was it a mistake?

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So this is the first hand I was dealt at the final table. It was from a 60k guarantee. I had no history on the villain as this was the first hand I had played with him. The payouts from this were as follows, numbers aren't exact but pretty close

1....11k

2....7k

3....4.9k

4....3.8k

5....2.5k

6....2.1k

7....1.5k

8....1.2k

9....960

Blinds, 15k-30k

Hand-AQo

Position-Low Jack

Stack- 990,000(33bb)

Villian is the chip leader with 1.2m

Folds around to me, I make it 70k. The villain in the bb calls the 70k. Flop comes Qh,6d,6s. Villain checks. I make a cbet of 91k which was half pot. Villain then makes a check raise to 235k. I'm obviously not very happy to see the check raise. My thought process was this. Him having a 6 should definitely be in his calling range from the bb. My hand is too good to fold I feel and this point and I didn't like just flatting as he will almost certainly fire again on the turn if I just call. So I 3bet to 380k thinking if he has any under pair to the queen he will fold, bluffs will fold, maybe some weaker Q will fold. Plus I think this is the best way for me to just take down the pot now. Villain just flats the 350k, which really set off warning bells and made me think a 6 was now a real possibility. If I was holding a 6 in his shoes I would definitely flat. There is very little chance I can have a 6 here, him being in the bb 46s 56,67,86s,A6 are all reasonable holdings from bb here maybe more.

Turn- 9d

action checks through here, If I bet the turn its gonna have to be an all in, I'm sitting at 540k with a pot of 942k

River-4s

Villain jams all in, putting me to a decision for my stack. My thoughts were I lose to a awful lot of hands he could reasonable be holding including any 6, Q9, 99 that decide to see a turn, KK,AA. I only beat at this point KQ,QJ,Q10. Maybe a few more weaker queens he sticks around with but I think that may be unlikely. I think lower pairs probably fold to my 3bet after the flop. I use up most of my time bank and find the fold button.

After the hand I hand 18bb, which I felt was enough to do some damage. I wound up playing 66 hands at the final table with this villain. He had a 18vpip/14pfr/9 3bet before he busted out. I was able to rebound and finished 4th. Ultimately one of my leaks is stacking off on one pair hands in situations where I could easily be beat. This sure felt like that. Credit to the villain, he really put me in a crappy spot, or maybe I put myself there. How big of a error was folding here? My 3bet on the flop after replaying the hand the next day also seemed lite, should flatting here be the best play? Being the final table and nice payouts up top I really wasn't feeling good about getting it in here, it doesn't feel like a auto call given how villain played his hand.

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Pre-Flop: Fine.

Flop: No me gusta bet size of 1/2 pot. What do you think can call you? Literally nothing other than Qx, 6x and maybe some randon Ax suited that hopes for a 4flush on the turn. But your bet size completely discourages any 3flush, 3straight, or random pocket pair from calling. Had you bet smaller, now suddenly all of those hands can continue and be value targets for you later in the hand. So basically you shut out value. You are correct that villain has range advantage here and given you have a Q, he is that much more likely to not have one. If Villain is chip leader with 40bb you are not that far behind him and can really break him. More than likely he is aware of this and is not going to run a sicko bluff against you at the start of the FT. Nine times out of ten I don't like your back-raise on the flop because once again you are going for line definition and not optimizing value. It's hard, I get it. But you named all of these hands that will just fold, so please explain to me why do you want those to fold? Because you want to feel better about your bluff catcher at that point in the hand? However if you take this line you have to fold when you get ripped on because your hand looks like exactly what it is. So without a specific read on this opponent, it's pretty tough to continue and expect to be good.

If we could replay this hand over again, I would likely bet 1/4 pot on the flop or even check back. Perfect flop to check back for deception and for villain to pick up equity that is very unlikely to make a better hand than yours now. This also induces villain to stab or barrel into you with all of the junk they have because "OMG you checked back the flop".

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Some great advice from negrealanu here, I would like to have more information before I give my input on the hand. If you can, please tell me all the stack sizes of the rest of the players and their relative positions at the table. I always take icm into account in these spots, especially playing against a covering stack that can apply pressure.

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Honestly i love checking back the flop here , pot control + induce weaker hands to pay me off. As played I really feel like if he had a 6 he is going to go ahead and 4 bet this flop, Why stop there after your 3 bet . Also the check check turn ,for all we know it opened up his belief that he was better and induced his river bet. I think AA and KK blast a 4 bet on the flop, I think quads doesnt raise you at all on the flop. This leaves 3 of a kind and he was willing to raise the flop if he had it, therefore I think he would be the same at 4 betting . Either he hit the 9 ,4 for a house or he has what i believe is a queen like you . It smells like a weaker queen, it plays like a weaker queen .As played I'm paying him off and show me .

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I can't see KK being in his calling range preflop. That shoud almost always be a 3bet pre. AA could try to get cute and flat. Thus on the flop 6x is pretty much all you could be worried about. I agree with small flop cbet or check back. Induce the bluffs.

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I don’t think the point of 3betting should ever be to get weaker hands and bluffs to fold. Those are the hands we want to keep around.

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@sir you know how many times though I have not 3 bet we get to the flop and turn and i get paid about the same as I wouldve if they call my 3b on pf and they fold the flop. In other words I'm thinking well sh1t I just gave them another street for the same damn price.

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I was talking about the 3bet on the flop after he got check raised. I don’t think I’ve ever 3bet a check raise on the flop hoping to get worse hands or bluffs to fold.

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need a really good read to fold river...

flop 20-33% is the best option vs pretty much anyone,

if you play flop x strat, include stuff like your weakest Qx JJ TT some A high QQ etc pretty easy to come up with this range..for bluffs can include stuff like KJs w bdfd that doesn't really want to b/f flop but can improve over turns+rivs

as played I call w/out any reads as given your pot odds and your hand you would be way overfolding in a gto sim...

your hand is just so good+there's a non-zero chance he's value cutting KQ

now like I alluded to b4 some ppl just never have a bluff here and calling w/ anything but 6x+ is lighting money on fire, so reads in this spot are pretty important

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