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Really? Yup.

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Smeaglerat    10

Here goes nothing. The longest nightmare streak I've had (previously) in 40 years of poker is 15 sessions. I am currently on a bender of 151 sessions of utter card death. I made a comment today, both facetiously and seriously, that I think it's about 5 standard deviations beyond outlier status. Have no idea. Mid limits. THIS card dead: for decades was winning nickel or dime per ... in this streak, only once in 151 sessions have I been ahead as much as $300, with something like 97% of time at table in streak stuck. Utter, utter, utter every run out or 99% or so goes wrong. I guess statistically I'm no closer to the long run than 2 1/2 years ago when it started. Effing amazing to see.

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Smeaglerat    10

I don't know how much I'm going to update this until it gets cut, just a little probably. No intention of going to play tonight but at 10 til 2AM I look at my watch with nothing to do.

Well from 2-3 AM is a 600 high hand with only 2 tables going. I go spur of the moment. Flop two monsters drawing at high hand and get stacked on both at odds if I figured it right of about 300/1 (from when the money went in on turn).

My hand 8-10 big blind no raise: flop 8-8-6, pocket queens didn't raise, we shove on turn, Queen on river (2-outer).

My hand is A-6 of hearts, flop 6-6-4, I'm up against Q-6, shove on turn blank, he calls, river Queen (3-outer).

Then game breaks after high hand awarded, I cash out. She counts chips and says $273. Then inexplicably she counts out loud $247 in cash. I say "I don't think so." She's miffed but double-checks.

That little thing in the back of my brain says, "It's 300/1 to lose those two hands and 3000/1 to get cashed out short."

I need to tame that part of myselt admittedly.

It's none of the individual hands of course. I've been on both ends of plenty of 1-outers. It's the ungodly streak of them that is quite extraordinary, 10 times longer than any death streak I've experienced, and that's an anomaly.

How many sessions of a death streak is statistically unreasonable? Don't ask me anymore.

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Rihard4a    10

Who cares? Poker is a game where shit hits the fan more often than not. I've been 2 outed in 10 consecutive hands, and then I also have hit royal flush 12 times in a single month. Poker is a funny game. If there wouldn't be stuff like this you wouldn't be getting action from people who are happy to gamble with hands like Q6o and shit. Fuck the variance, I love this game.

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Smeaglerat    10

Well people tend to reply inanely with "poker has variance didn't you know it?" when in fact what I'm putting on the table is an instance of variance 10 times more extreme than any I've seen in decades in the game. So there's a little bit of a disconnect or head up your ass factor to that kind of response. I bit my tongue on all normal runs now, but at 5 times beyond the standard deviation of outlier, it becomes a statistical fascinating point, not one to be dismissed with, "Oh you're hand got 2-outered? Nature of the game. This streak is about as unnatural as you can get. 155 sessions, 2 1/2 years of death run outs. And that's interesting, son.

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Rihard4a    10

You got to be really stupid to think that the most extreme of bad runs will never happen, because you know what, IT IS FUCKING MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE, so it will eventually happen to someone. This time it is you. Deal with it.

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Smeaglerat    10

I retire from small NL hold'em tonight. Lost sickly including a hand where I have Q-J on J-7-2 rainbow flop. I get called inexplicably (other than he just plays every hand) by Q-5 offsuit. There is no straight draw or flush draw to pick up. It comes his only win, 5-5. Then he checks. I had "seen everything" as they say, but never one-tenth of this streak. I may play some higher limit but not often. A guy witnessing it said tonight, "Maybe you are god and you are creating these hands." I was receptive to the idea. That's where it is. End of recreational hold'em because they have $600 high hands every 30 minutes with just a few tables going. 157 sessions of this has been a little bit sanity threatening. I'm not the first to go there re the game. I think I probably ran good for 20 years and this is the hangover or something strange.

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Smeaglerat    10

Moved up to 2-5. With pocket fives I call a quarter on the button. Flop Q-5-3 unsuited. Check around, I check. Too dry, I want action. Turn is ace. Looks good. Dude bets, dude raises, I shove. Another dude inexplicabley whispers to me, "He's got A-3." River is ace. First raiser does have A-3 (other guy folded, he had an ace). Winner was 2% on flop, 2% still on turn with only one ace left. Dude called me down earlier with second button, I had nut full. Gonna win tons.

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Smeaglerat    10

I bet 200 on river on second nut full tonight, a call, then another call. First caller says straight before I can even turn my hand over. I turn up the full. Other caller says flush and mini pushes toward dealer face down. Then says: 'Let me look back." Indeed, he had made not only two runners to a flush, but two runners to a straight flush, overlooked it, and smooth called on the river.

I made three full houses tonight. Lost my stack on two and split the pot with the other. $700 stack both losses. And I won $500 for the session. I'm not trembling any more: I see incredibly incompetent play from guys I revered.

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Smeaglerat    10

Tonight establishes for me that the world is a quantum apparition, so I guess that is kind of an upside to this bender. After 160+ sessions of utter death runouts, another 12 hours of it tonight. The worst card possible continues to hit nearly every time I'm in a hand, with me calling the card out before it comes, even calling entire flops. I have A-2-3-4-5 in Big O, I announced the flop K-Q-J. Then the flop comes exactly that. Over 30 wraps and flush draws and low combos ... 0-for 30. That's something like 700 + outs: 0-for-700. The staggering amount of hands that I flop no pair, no straight draw, no flush draw, no back door flush draw, this with 8 cards, as if they rummaged around in the deck for 10 minutes to get the exact zero connecting flop to my hand is way beyond a million to one. Game breaks and i go to hold'em. I flop J-J-5 to A-J, guy bets into me, a 5 comes, he bets into me again, I smooth again. I tell neighbor, "It's coming another 5." It does come a 5. I think it's 986/1 on that hand. Didn't look it up but I have before. Dealers continuosly try to give the wrong player the pot when I have the winner. One hand they tried to give my opponent 3/4 when i had it swept. Only contested pot I won. He raised with no win, I had 1-2-3 and a nut full. He's drawing to low and clubs. He hits big club and says "That's me." Low doesnt come on bottom and dealer is giving him credit for nut low, which I also would have HAD to have if it came. I'm just at a massive WTF moment. As if I'm not there.

It isn't random and it isn't real. It's a quantum demonstration/lesson. All of the universe is. Poker is no different.

  • #11

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Smeaglerat    10

So the level is there is no such thing as random. The universe is a giant quantum computer, it deals with an agenda and keeps count ... and human beings use probability to describe outcomes that are unknown to them ( but are not unknown ). Thus, it deals with intent ungodly outcomes srtategically targeted at individual human beings and situations.

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Smeaglerat    10

After 170 sessions of utter card death beyond anything I've ever seen in decades in the game, with no rush, mini-rush, mini-heater during that streak, it broke tonight. I won three straight hands total of about 4K in the pots. What made the streak even more unbearable than the 170 figure is the fact that I was only playing once a week usually. So it was nearly 3 years. I stared at the cards in disbelief that I was no longer up against the "you don't win a pot no matter what" phenomenon. If you read my thread you now know the universe is a quantum computer, dealing its agenda and keeping count. And that's not nothing. I already believed that, then recently I heard a physicist, wish I could name him, say, "If the universe is acting like a quantum computer, and let's face it ... it is ....." Awesome quote.

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