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1010 on the bubble

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vidde99    10

Had a tricky spot tonight. 

I played a tournament in my local casino. On the bubble at the finaltable I had 1010 on the button with 12bbs. with 7 people left it folds to MP2, MP2 shoves 10bbs.

Should I go all in or fold?  

Everyone was kind a short between 8-24bbs.

The buy-in was 300d and the min-cash was 900d (6 place).

Considering the bubble and that Im not the shortest stack maybe i should find a fold?

 

Anyway I decided to go all-in and lost to AK left with 2bbs and bubbled the tournament a couple of hands later.

Thankful for any help!

 

 

 

 

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knocker    10

When a guy shoves on the bubble, you pretty much know he's got a solid starting hand.  He's got a high PP or Big Slick.   You already know that.  You're going to get beat probably 60% of the time.  But that's not necessarily a good reason to muck.          

If there was 2 or 3 big stacks up the table and you could count on one of them calling him, I think you muck.  They're just going to knock you off next anyway.  Might as well take the 900.  But in that case, allowing him to steal the blinds just gives him hope to hang around longer and lessens your chances of doing so.   All other considerations aside, is the guy loose, is he on tilt, does he gamble, does the next level effectively blind him off, how close is it.... etc?   Sometimes you have to just get it done or go down shooting.   And you have to look at it another way too.  You take his 10BB and add it to your 12 and now you're second or third in chips.  You have a chance to win 3 or 4 or 5 thousand now just mucking every hand until you blind off.  And if you win, and now you have a good chance of doing it, you take the 10 or 15 grand.  4, 5 or 12 times what you'd make going out in 6th is the right price to call I think.  You make more over the long run in that situation even though you're probably behind most times over the short haul.                

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saukendar    0

I'm not as sure knocker that a 10BB shove into an unopened pot is an "always has it" spot even on the bubble, maybe even especially on the bubble as abusing the bubble is still a really good strategy. Depending on the average stack, he can be open-shoving 10BBs as wide as any A, any pair, any 2 paint and suited connectors down to 87. I don't always even look to shove in his spot if the average stack is 30BBs+ or if the next blind level will hit (and make my current stack 5BB-7BB) before I go through the blinds. I will say that the shorter the average stack the more likely he is to have it as the variance is higher as the stacks get shorter, making waiting it out on marginal holdings an ever better bet.

 

You didn't say what the average stack was or how long till the next level at this point so it's a bit hard to say if the call was a good bet. In general in small buy-in live tournies near me you are probably looking at a 30BB-50BB average stack on the bubble and the call is correct.

 

The average stack and time remaining are almost always on screens around the tourny tables.

 

my 2 cents

Edited by saukendar
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DavidK    0

I think 10-10 is a bit too strong to fold there. I heard about computer software that calculates ICM for these type of questions.

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